改进的灰色预测模型在地面沉降预测中的应用

在地面沉降这一复杂系统中,既含有已知的又古有未知的或非确定的信息,可以作为一个灰色系统来研究.本文针对地面沉降的下沉曲线非线性特征,提出用一种基于残差灰色预测模型对地面沉降量时间序列进行研究.结果表明,通过改进后的灰色预测模型,预测精度得到了提高,在沉降量比较大和水准点比较稀少的地区,利用此模型预测地面沉降可减少地面沉降监测经费,并能实时提供地面沉降预警信息.     

Provenance of Precambrian Fe- and Al-rich Metapelites in the Yenisey Ridge and Kuznetsk Alatau, Siberia： Geochemical Signatures

Major, trace and rare earth element contents of Fe- and Al-rich metapelites from the Korda （Yenisey Ridge） and Amar （Kuznetsk Alatau） formations were determined to examine the nature, origin and evolution of their protoliths. Results indicate that these rocks are the redeposited and metamorphosed products of Precambrian kaolinitic weathering crusts, while the geochemical distinctions between the studied metapelites are determined by different weathering conditions in the source area and tectonic settings. The protolith of the Korda Formation metapelites was produced by erosion products of the post-Archean granitoid rocks, which accumulated under humid climate conditions in shallow-water basins along the continental margin. The geochemical characteristics of the deeper primary deposits of the Amar Formation suggest that volcanogenic material of mafic composition derived from an island-arc environment had a major role in supplying the erosion zone. These results agree with lithofacies data and with the geodynamic reconstruction of the evolution of the Yenisey Ridge and Kuznetsk Alatau during the Mesoproterozoic and Neoproterozoic, respectively. It was shown that REEs had limited mobility during contact metamorphism. The coherent mobility of REEs during collisional metamorphism may be attributed both to mineral reactions responsible for modal changes and to local chemical heterogeneity inherited from the initial protolith.     

Chronology and Geochemistry of Volcanic Rocks in the Cretaceous Suifenhe Formation in Eastern Heilongjiang, China

Zircon U-Pb ages and geochemical data of volcanic rocks in the Suifenhe Formation in eastern Heilongjiang Province are reported, and their petrogenesis is discussed in this paper. The Suifenhe Formation mainly consists of basalt, andesite, and dacite. Zircon from andesite and dacite are euhedral in shape and show typical oscillatory zoning with high Th/U ratios (0.18-0.57), implying its magmatic origin. Zircon U-Pb dating results by laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer (LA-ICP-MS) indicate that the 206Pb/238U ages of zircons from andesite range within 105-106 Ma, yielding a weighted mean age of 105.5±0.8 Ma (n=14), and that 206Pb/238U ages of zircons from dacite are between 90-96 Ma, yielding a weighted mean age of 93.2±1.3 Ma (n =13). The volcanic rocks from the Suifenhe Formation are subalkaline series and show a calc-alkaline evolutionary trend with SiO2 content of 47.69%-65.47%, MgO contents of 1.42%-6.80% (Mg#= 45-53), and Na2O/K2O ratios of 1.83-3.63. They are characterized by enrichment in large ion lithophile elements (LILE) and light-rare-earth elements (LREE), depletion in heavy rare earth elements (HREE) and high field strength elements (HFSE) (e.g., Nb, Ta, Ti), and low initial 87Sr/86Sr ratios (0.7041-0.7057) and positiveεNd(t) values (039-4.08), implying that they could be derived from a depleted magma source. Taken together, these results suggest that the primary magma of the volcanic rocks might originate from partial melting of the mantle wedge metasomatized by fluids derived from subducted slab under a tectonic setting of active continental margin.     

山东英格庄金矿床构造控矿特征及深部预测

英格庄金矿床位于山东牟乳金矿带巫山断裂的南缘,其围岩主要以古老变质岩与昆嵛山花岗岩为主,为含金石英脉型金矿。文章通过对英格庄金矿床控矿断裂发展史以及断面几何形态与金矿体赋存位置关系的研究,发现矿体在断层带中的分布具有规律性。深部地球化学原生晕研究表明,英格庄金矿床Bi与Hg关系非常密切,是金矿化的最佳指示元素,且在已知矿体下方出现前缘晕与尾晕相互叠加的现象。结合矿体在断裂中分布的规律以及原生晕特点,对英格庄矿床深部第二富集段进行了预测,并预测在-220m下有第二金富集段存在,且具有很大的经济价值。     

四川巴塘夏塞花岗岩和银多金属矿床年龄及硫、铅同位素组成

为了解四川西部夏塞银多金属矿区黑云母二长花岗岩形成和矿化发生的时代及成矿物质来源,测定了该矿区绒依措和若洛隆花岗岩的Rb-Sr年龄和钾长石、黑云母及主要银矿化阶段石英的40Ar/39Ar年龄及矿石的硫、铅同位素组成.花岗岩的结晶年龄约为93 Ma,银矿化年龄约为75 Ma.矿石硫可能源于花岗岩,但不能排除源于弱沉积围岩的可能性;矿石、花岗岩和弱变质沉积围岩的铅同位素组成相似,铅主要源于上地壳,少量源于下地壳.     

基于MSC MARC的三维构造应力场数值模拟与裂缝预测——以宝浪油田宝北区块为例

MSC MARC的高度非线性有限元分析能力与强大的二次开发接口为复杂三维地质数值模型的建立与三维构造应力模拟与非线性分析提供了有力工具; 并可以通过二次开放子程序建立复杂的岩石本构与破裂准则。本文基于MSC MARC建立了新疆焉耆盆地宝浪油田宝北区块背斜构造三维有限元模型并进行了构造应力模拟分析和裂缝预测。裂缝预测结果与实际动态资料十分吻合。      

库水变动下水库滑坡变形演化机理

滑坡变形演化是滑坡内动力物质系统与外动力激励系统相互作用的结果,对于库水变动影响下的水库滑坡而言,内外系统相互作用的过程则是通过地下水的力学作用效应得以体现的,为此可通过库水变动过程中滑坡地下水力学作用效应的强弱关系及其演化规律来揭示水库滑坡的变形演化机理.基于上述思路,以三峡库区巴东县李家湾滑坡为研究对象,首先利用敏...     

内蒙古迪彦钦阿木斑岩钼矿床绿泥石和绿帘石矿物化学特征及其成矿指示意义

迪彦钦阿木矿床位于大兴安岭中段二连浩特-东乌旗多金属成矿带,是区内新近发现的一个超大型斑岩钼矿床.为了厘清蚀变矿物的成分对找矿的指示意义,文章运用电子探针和LA-ICP-MS对迪彦钦阿木矿床青磐岩化带绿帘石亚带的绿泥石和绿帘石的主微量元素成分进行了分析.电子探针数据表明,这些绿泥石属于铁斜绿泥石(辉绿泥石).绿泥石四面...     

潜在地震灾害预测和评价神经网络系统及其若干问题

结合人工神经网络自身的特性和地震灾害预测研究的特点,本文应用神经网络模型,建立了潜在地震灾害预测和评价系统。针对网络模型参数设置、数据归一化、中间层神经元最优数目以及泛化分类评价指标等若干实际问题给出了实际可行的解决方案。通过大样本数据对网络的训练,形成了有识别和记忆功能的非线性预测和评价系统。对网络的测试和检验,论证了该系统在预测潜在地震灾害上的可行性和有效性。同时,从测试精度出发,探讨了这种预测网络存在的不足,并给出了相应的改进建议,为开展进一步的研究工作提供了参考。