Study of Partial Coefficients for Design of Semicircular Breakwaters

In the present study,the reliability design of semicircular breakwater is based on the verification of the rules defined by standard specifications,where partial coefficients are introduced to ensure safety.The reliability of the semicircular breakwaters has been analyzed by using the Hasofer-Lind method to determine the reliability index of structure that has correlated loads,utilizing the long-term observed wave data at a given place.The relation curve between reliability index and safety factor in the traditional design method,as well as the relationships between reliability index and partial coefficients,have been obtained.This paper proposes values of partial coefficients for the design expression of semicircular breakwaters in the cases of anti-sliding and anti-overturning.     

一种非对称台风Bogus方法的数值模拟应用

前人研究中BDA方法采用的轴对称Bogus台风不能反映个别台风具体特征,也弃掉了背景场的合理成分,有必要改用更精细的非对称台风Bogus模型对BDA方案做出改进。因此,提出一种充分融合分析场信息和实际观测信息并考虑副高影响的非对称台风Bogus方法,针对0613、0704台风个例,通过4DVAR技术,利用MM5模式及其伴随模式对此Bogus资料进行BDA同化试验和模拟预报,数值结果表明:BDA方法同化非对称台风Bogus模型,其路径预报效果优于同化轴对称台风模型,同化两种Bogus资料都使台风强度模拟效果得到极大改善,但改善程度相当,故台风的非对称结构及副高等外围环境场及背景场弱台风中合理信息对台风的准确模拟起到关键作用,同时,Bogus资料同化方法用于远洋上的台风时,需注意台风模型与副高的配置关系。     

聚合物驱组合段塞分注实验研究

萨尔图油田南二区东部140号断层以东地区葡11—4油层,以多段多韵律和正韵律沉积为主,平均孔隙度30．0％,平均空气渗透率1980×10^-3μm2。水驱结束时该油层平均含水92％,采出程度39．5％。计划对该区块实施聚合物驱开采。以往经验认为,组合段塞调整注聚技术能够有效改善流度控制作用。然而对组合注入情况下如何进一步提高驱油效果、注入井分注时机、层段注入强度对开发效果有何影响却很少探讨。通过室内驱油实验,在聚驱的组合段塞注入不同时机（水驱空白阶段、含水下降阶段、含水稳定阶段、含水回升阶段）下调整注入强度实施分注以及在含水回升分注基础上进一步调整注入强度,同时对比不分注实验,评价各方案驱油效果。实验表明：不实施分注时聚驱采收率在水驱基础上提高了19．07个百分点,而组合段塞注入时实施分注均能够在不分注基础上进一步提高驱油效果;空白水驱时实施分注采收率提高幅度最大,为26．55个百分点;随着分注时机的滞后采收率提高幅度增加值依次递减,分注时机越早越好。     

多变量分位数回归构建印度洋大眼金枪鱼栖息地指数

以0～300m水层加权平均水温、50～150m水层的温差和氧差及其交互变量为影响因子,运用分位数回归法,寻找出环境变量与大眼金枪鱼(Thunnus obesus)延绳钓钓获率的最佳上界分位数回归方程,计算出栖息地指数(HSI),并应用地理信息系统(GIS)软件绘制各月HSI空间分布图。研究表明:大眼金枪鱼延绳钓钓获率(HR)依加权平均水温(x)、温差(y)、氧差(z)与的最佳上界分位数回归方程为HR0.70=-15.596+2.124x-0.003x3+0.033xyz-0.036y2z+0.107yz2-0.337z3;HSI空间分布为:16°S—10°N印度洋海域HSI高于0.7,HSI>0.8的海域随季节发生显著变化,马达加斯加外海至100°E、16°S—26°S海域常年存在一片HSI<0.4的区域,26°S—40°S海域的HSI介于0.4～0.5,40°S以南海域HSI<0.4,东非外海季节性地出现一片HSI<0.6的海域。利用多个环境变量的栖息地指数模型来预测分析大洋金枪鱼资源分布效果较好。     

辽东湾海域富营养化评价指标体系的构建

通过回顾近几十年来多位学者针对辽东湾海域富营养化开展的研究工作,提出将层次分析法应用到辽东湾海域富营养化评价当中,建立一套指标评价体系.根据各评价因子的层次关系构造判断矩阵,应用Matlab 6.5计算软件编程,确定各指标的权重,建立以富营养化水化因素和生态因素两方面指标为基础的综合评价指数模型,对辽东湾海域富营养化进行综合评价.     

Decomposition analysis on direct material input and dematerialization of mining cities in Northeast China

Material dematerialization is a basic approach to reduce the pressure on the resources and environment and to realize the sustainable development. The material flow analysis and decomposition method are used to calculate the direct material input (DMI) of 14 typical mining cities in Northeast China in 1995-2004 and to analyze the demateri-alization and its driving factors in the different types of mining cities oriented by coal, petroleum, metallurgy and multi-resources. The results are as follows: 1) from 1995 to 2006, the increase rates of the DMI and the material input intensity of mining cities declined following the order of multi-resources, metallurgy, coal, and petroleum cities, and the material utilizing efficiency did following the order of petroleum, coal, metallurgy, and multi-resources cities; 2) during the research period, all the kinds of mining cities were in the situation of weak sustainable development in most years; 3) the pressure on resources and environment in the multi-resources cities was the most serious; 4) the petro-leum cities showed the strong trend of sustainable development; and 5) in recent years, the driving function of eco-nomic development for material consuming has continuously strengthened and the controlling function of material utilizing efficiency for it has weakened. The key approaches to promote the development of circular economy of min-ing cities in Northeast China are put forward in the following aspects: 1) to strengthen the research and development of the technique of resources' cycling utilization, 2) to improve the utilizing efficiency of resources, and 3) to carry out the auditing system of resources utilization.     

基于改进Delaunay三角剖分算法的微地震数据SRV估算与应用

影响页岩气藏改造效果的核心参数是储层的压裂改造体积(Stimulated Reservoir Volume,SRV),有效准确估算压裂改造体积有助于评估压裂效果.水力压裂过程中微地震事件点分布状态不规则,传统的SRV计算方法通过外接规则几何体进行计算,相应结果误差明显,进而采用Delaunay三角剖分算法来降低结果误差...     

巨分子云的寿命

巨分子云的碰撞造成了大质量恒星在碰撞分子云中的形成,这些大质量恒星的形成产生了膨胀的HII区域,从而使巨分于云碎裂成小质量的分子云。这是本文提出的巨分子云碎裂机制。因此巨分子云的寿命也主要由区分子云间的碰撞几率所决定。我们的分析表明,巨分子云的寿命有赖于巨分子云所在的旋涡星系中的不同位置。寿命的最大可能存在区间为8.18×10~7yr与2.45×10~8yr。利用我们提出的机制可以在分子云研究的数值计算与数值模拟中得到应用。     

薄分子云湍流结构函数的倾角改正及其应用

通过结构函数可以测量湍流的能量级联速率.在实际观测中,无法测量分子云中气体的3维速度,这使得其湍流结构函数难以测量.对垂直于视线方向的薄分子云的情形,结构函数Stt2可以通过云核速度弥散(core velocity dispersion,CVD)进行测量,CVD2=1/2Stt2.对此进行推广,对于不垂直于视线方向的薄分子云,CVD2=1/2Stt2(1-1/8cos2θ)R2/3,其中,θ是视线方向与投影方向的夹角,平均投影距离与3维距离之比R可以用第2类椭圆积分E(k,φ)表示为R=2/πE(cosθ,π/2).