前期北太平洋海温异常对贵州夏季降水的影响

利用1979 2011年夏季贵州83个台站降水月资料及前期北太平洋逐月海温资料,对二者的耦合关系进行了SVD分析,对异常年份进行了合成分析,并对前期海温影响贵州夏季降水的可能机制进行了探讨。结果表明:(1)影响贵州夏季降水的海温关键区,从前一年夏季至当年春季由北太平洋的加利福尼亚冷流区转移到了黑潮区,前一年夏、秋及冬季海温的变化与贵州夏季降水关系更为密切,同期春季与贵州夏季降水的相关最差,且前期北太平洋海温与贵州中东部降水的异性相关更好。(2)贵州夏季降水偏多年,前一年夏季北太平洋海温分布从西北到东南为"+-+"分布,而降水偏少年为"-+-"分布,降水偏多年与El Nino事件关系不密切,而降水偏少年与La Nina事件关系较密切;在北太平洋夏季海温正异常年翌年,贵州夏季降水呈全区一致的偏多,而在负异常年翌年,贵州夏季降水呈全区一致的偏少。(3)前期北太平洋海温异常是影响贵州夏季降水的可能机制,北太平洋海温异常升高可引起向中纬度西太平洋传播的波列,通过加强西风造成西太平洋副热带高压西伸、偏强,有利于贵州降水异常偏多;而北太平洋海温异常降低对贵州降水的影响不如海温异常显著,它可造成西风减弱,使得西太平洋副热带高压东退、偏弱,从而抑制贵州夏季降水。     

阿勒泰地区冬季降水变化特征分析

利用阿勒泰地区7个地面气象站1961—2011年51a的降水观测资料,运用线性趋势、变差分析、EOF、Molet小波变换、M—K突变检测、R／S分析法,分析了该地区近50a来冬季降水的时空变化特征。结果表明：近50a来,该地区冬季降水量存在自山区向河谷逐渐减少的分布特征,年际变化幅度由东北向西南逐渐减小;在空间分布上以全地区一致型为主,部分年份还呈现东北一西南差异分布。冬季降水量在196l一1968年处于偏多阶段,1968--1982年为偏少阶段,此后呈增多趋势。该地区降水以18a周期变化为主,20世纪70年代中后期出现8a的短周期,在90年代中期出现5a的短周期振荡。冬季降水量的突变特征并不显著。R／S分析表明该地区冬季降水量的增加趋势在未来仍将持续。     

1960年以来东亚季风区云-降水微物理的直接观测研究

云-降水的直接观测结果是云微物理参数化的重要依据。自1960年以来,处于东亚季风影响下的中国实施了大量对云-降水微物理参数的观测和研究,旨在加深对云-降水微物理过程的认识,从而改进数值模式中云微物理参数化方案和指导人工影响天气作业。云-降水微物理参数包括气溶胶、冰核、云滴、雨滴、冰晶、雪晶、冰雹等粒子浓度和谱分布,以及云滴、雨滴含水量等。中国已有云-降水微物理参数的成果可归纳为:(1)通常云-降水微物理粒子浓度变化较大,但总体变化有一定的范围;(2)采用Γ函数拟合云滴谱更接近实际谱,但不同拟合谱参数差异较大;(3)可用指数函数和Γ函数来拟合层状云降水雨滴谱,Γ函数拟合积云和层积混合云降水雨滴谱精度更高;(4)中国冰核浓度较高,冰核浓度随温度的降低近似成指数变化;(5)冰晶谱、雪晶谱、冰雹谱通常采用指数函数来描述;(6)通常使用荣格(Junge)和Γ函数来分段描述气溶胶粒子谱拟合误差更小。由于云-降水过程及其反馈作用描述不准确是数值模式预报结果不确定性的最大因素,中国正在不断地推进云降水的微物理观测研究,以期进一步加深对东亚季风区云-降水微物理特征的认识,从而为模式中微物理参数化方案的改进提供观测依据和科学指导。基于数值预报模式中云微物理过程参数化发展的需要,总结了中国1960年以来云-降水微物理直接观测的研究成果,可为东亚地区云-降水微物理研究及其模式参数化方案的改进提供观测依据。此外,针对云微物理参化发展的需求,结合过去已有的大量观测提出了几点建议,为今后云-降水物理综合性观测方案的设计提供参考。     

Impact of Anthropogenic Heat Release on Regional Climate in Three Vast Urban Agglomerations in China简

We simulated the impact of anthropogenic heat release （AHR） on the regional climate in three vast city agglomerations in China using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with nested high-resolution modeling.Based on energy consumption and high-quality land use data,we designed two scenarios to represent no-AHR and current-AHR conditions.By comparing the results of the two numerical experiments,changes of surface air temperature and precipitation due to AHR were quantified and analyzed.We concluded that AHR increases the temperature in these urbanized areas by about 0.5℃-1℃,and this increase is more pronounced in winter than in other seasons.The inclusion of AHR enhances the convergence of water vapor over urbanized areas.Together with the warming of the lower troposphere and the enhancement of ascending motions caused by AHR,the average convective available potential energy in urbanized areas is increased.Rainfall amounts in summer over urbanized areas are likely to increase and regional precipitation patterns to be altered to some extent.     

The Observed and Simulated Major Summer Climate Features in Northwest China and Their Sensitivity to Land Surface Processes

Northwest China （NWC） is a typical arid and semi-arid region. In this study, the main summer climate features over NWC are presented and the performance of an atmospheric general circulation model （NCEP GCM/SSiB） over this region is evaluated. Satellite-derived vegetation products are applied in the model. Based on comparison with observational data and Reanalysis II data, the model generally captures major features of the NWC summer energy balance and circulation. These features include： a high surface tem- perature center dominating the planetary boundary layer; widespread descending motion; an anticyclone （cyclone） located in the lower and middle （upper） troposphere, covering most parts of central NWC; and the precipitation located mainly in the high elevation areas surrounding NWC.
The sensitivity of the summer energy balance and circulation over NWC and surrounding regions to land surface processes is assessed with specified land cover change. In the sensitivity experiment, the degradation over most parts of NWC, except the Taklimakan desert, decreases the surface-absorbed radiation and leads to weaker surface thermal effects. In northern Xinjiang and surrounding regions, less latent heating causes stronger anomalous lower-level anticyclonic circulation and upper-level cyclonic circulation, leading to less summer precipitation and higher surface temperature. Meanwhile, the dry conditions in the Hexi Corridor produce less change in the latent heat flux. The circulation change to the north of this area plays a domi- nant role in indirectly changing lower-level cyclonic conditions, producing more convergence, weaker vertical descending motion, and thus an increase in the precipitation over this region.     

Progress in Studies of the Precipitation Diurnal Variation over Contiguous China

This paper summarizes the recent progress in studies of the diurnal variation of precipitation over con- tiguous China. The main results are as follows. （1） The rainfall diurnal variation over contiguous China presents distinct regional features. In summer, precipitation peaks in the late afternoon over the south- ern inland China and northeastern China, while it peaks around midnight over southwestern China. In the upper and middle reaches of Yangtze River valley, precipitation occurs mostly in the early morning. Summer precipitation over the central eastern China （most regions of the Tibetan Plateau） has two diurnal peaks, i.e., one in the early morning （midnight） and the other in the late afternoon. （2） The rainfall diurnal variation experiences obvious seasonal and sub-seasonal evolutions. In cold seasons, the regional contrast of rainfall diurnal peaks decreases, with an early morning maximum over most of the southern China. Over the central eastern China, diurnal monsoon rainfall shows sub-seasonal variations with the movement of summer monsoon systems. The rainfall peak mainly occurs in the early morning （late afternoon） during the active （break） monsoon period. （3） Cloud properties and occurrence time of rainfall diurnal peaks are different for long- and short-duration rainfall events. Long-duration rainfall events are dominated by strat- iform precipitation, with the maximum surface rain rate and the highest profile occurring in the late night to early morning, while short-duration rainfall events are more related to convective precipitation, with the maximum surface rain rate and the highest profile occurring between the late afternoon and early night. （4） The rainfall diurnal variation is influenced by multi-scale mountain-valley and land-sea breezes as well as large-scale atmospheric circulation, and involves complicated formation and evolution of cloud and rainfall systems. The diurnal cycle of winds in the lower troposphere also contributes to the regional differences     

Chinese Contribution to CMIP5：An Overview of Five Chinese Models’Performances

An overview of Chinese contribution to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 （CMIP5） is presented. The performances of five Chinese Climate/Earth System Models that participated in the CMIP5 pro ject are assessed in the context of climate mean states, seasonal cycle, intraseasonal oscillation, interan-nual variability, interdecadal variability, global monsoon, Asian-Australian monsoon, 20th-century historical climate simulation, climate change pro jection, and climate sensitivity. Both the strengths and weaknesses of the models are evaluated. The models generally show reasonable performances in simulating sea surface tem-perature （SST） mean state, seasonal cycle, spatial patterns of Madden-Julian oscillation （MJO） amplitude and tropical cyclone Genesis Potential Index （GPI）, global monsoon precipitation pattern, El Ni-no-Southern Oscillation （ENSO）, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） related SST anomalies. However, the perfor-mances of the models in simulating the time periods, amplitude, and phase locking of ENSO, PDO time periods, GPI magnitude, MJO propagation, magnitude of SST seasonal cycle, northwestern Pacific mon-soon and North American monsoon domains, as well as the skill of large-scale Asian monsoon precipitation need to be improved. The model performances in simulating the time evolution and spatial pattern of the 20th-century global warming and the future change under representative concentration pathways pro jection are compared to the multimodel ensemble of CMIP5 models. The model discrepancies in terms of climate sensitivity are also discussed.     

An Overview of Nowcasting Development, Applications, and Services in the Hong Kong Observatory

The Hong Kong Observatory （HKO） has been developing a suite of nowcasting systems to support op- erations of the forecasting center and to provide a variety of nowcasting services for the general public and specialized users. The core system is named the Short-range Warnings of Intense Rainstorm of Localized Systems （SWIRLS）, which is a radar-based nowcasting system mainly for the automatic tracking of the movement of radar echoes and the short-range Quantitative Precipitation Forecast （QPF）. The differential, integral （or variational）, and object-oriented tracking algorithms were developed and integrated into the nowcasting suite. In order to predict severe weather associated with intense thunderstorms, such as high gust, hail, and lightning, SWIRLS was enhanced to SWIRLS-II by introduction of a number of physical models, especially the icing physics as well as the thermodynamics of the atmosphere. SWIRLS-Ⅱ was further enhanced with non-hydrostatic, high resolution numerical models for extending the forecast range up to 6h ahead. Meanwhile, SWIRLS was also modified for providing nowcasting services for aviation community and specialized users. To take into account the rapid development of lightning events, ensemble nowcasting techniques such as time-lagged and weighted average ensemble approaches were also adopted in the nowcasting system. Apart from operational uses in Hong Kong, SWIRLS/SWIRLS-Ⅱ was also exported to other places to participate in several international events such as the WMO/WWRP Forecast Demon- stration Project （FDP） during the Beijing 2008 Olympics Games and the Shanghai Expo 2010. Meanwhile, SWIRLS has also been transferred to various regional meteorological organizations for establishing their nowcasting infrastructure. This paper summarizes the history and the technologies of SWIRLS/SWIRLS-Ⅱ and its variants and the associated nowcasting applications and services provided by the HKO since the mid 1990s.     

Surface rainfall and cloud budgets associated with mei-yu torrential rainfall over eastern China during June 2011

Surface rainfall and cloud budgets associated with three heavy rainfall events that occurred over eastern China during the mei-yu season in June 2011 were analyzed using 2D cumulus ensemble model simulation data.Model domain mean rainfall showed three peaks in response to three prescribed ascending motion maxima,primarily through the mean moisture convergence during the torrential rainfall period.Prescribed ascending motion throughout the troposphere produced strong convective rainfall during the first （9 June） and third （17-18 June） rainfall events,whereas strong prescribed ascending motion in the mid and upper troposphere and weak subsidence near the surface generated equally important stratiform and convective rainfall during the second rainfall event （14 June）.The analysis of surface rainfall budgets reveals that convective rainfall was associated with atmospheric drying during the first event and moisture convergence during the third event.Both stratiform and convective rainfall responded primarily to moisture convergence during the second event.An analysis of grid data shows that the first and third mean rainfall maxima had smaller horizontal scales of the precipitation system than the second.     

2013年夏季主雨带为啥眷恋北方

2013年夏天,我国暴雨有点怪：南下四川贫地,北上三江平原,就连革命圣地延安也得到格外的“青睐”与“昭恋”。这一连串的暴雨过程使新闻界也变得很不平静,整个夏季,“暴雨”“洪涝”“救火”充斥在各大媒体的头版头条