长三角盛夏—初秋强降水的延伸期过程预报探析

针对长三角汛期强降水过程,根据不同降水类型的特性,提出分时段建立低频模型并给出建模流程。综合分析长三角汛期强降水期的低频特性,将低频气旋及反气旋区分划分7个关键区。重点研究盛夏—初秋时段的强降水特征,在总结强降水期低频特征的基础上,借助EOF分解建立延伸期大—暴雨的预报模型:1区或2区有低频气旋维持并发展;6区、7区或5区存在低频反气旋。并且在7个关键区中1、2区的低频气旋及5、6、7区的低频反气旋为主要低频系统,起决定作用,而3区的低频系统为次要低频系统,起辅助作用。利用该模型提前30 d预报出2012年汛期最强降水过程,并分析本次过程的低频系统演变,给出动态演变模型。     

流化冰对于鲣鱼的保鲜效果研究

以远洋鲣鱼为研究对象,以传统淡水碎冰保鲜为对照,研究流化冰处理对鲣鱼的理化性质及微生物特性的影响。结果表明:(1)–4°C冷藏18d后,流化冰保鲜鱼肉pH值、TVB-N、TBA、a*值和菌落总数依次为5.57、10.2mgN/100g、2.87mg/100g、8.92和2.61lgCFU/g,而淡水碎冰保鲜鱼肉各指标已达6.05、20.3mgN/100g、6.60mg/100g、7.16和3.02lgCFU/g,故可知流化冰保鲜处理效果明显优于碎冰保鲜。(2)在25±1°C室温条件下,将冰与鱼放入保温箱内保鲜8h后,流化冰保鲜鱼肉的a*值、pH值、TVB-N、TBA、菌落总数和汁液流失率均显著低于空白和淡水碎冰保鲜处理组(P0.05)。流化冰保鲜可显著减缓鱼体的腐败进程、延长产品货架期,进而满足冰鲜水产品的远洋及长距离运输要求。     

基于T213集合预报的延伸期产品释用方法及初步试验

基于T213集合预报系统2008年1月中国及附近区域500 hPa高度和850 hPa温度的1~15 d预报资料,构建延伸期产品释用方法,通过对逐日11~15 d预报资料做集合平均和后向衰减权重系数滑动平均,进而得到延伸期(11~15 d)候平均和候距平预报,并对预报效果进行检验,结果表明:对11~15 d预报场做集合平均和后向衰减权重系数滑动平均均能降低预报误差,改善整体预报效果。由此得到的500 hPa高度场和850 hPa温度场11~1 5 d候平均预报误差与逐日控制预报第5d的水平相当,候距平相关系数均接近0.6,整体而言效果较好,具备一定的应用价值。500 hPa高度场和850 hPa温度场11~15 d候距平预报在中国大陆地区位相准确率均较高,东南沿海和东北部分地区稍差,且850 hPa温度场的位相准确率整体高于500 hPa高度场。候距平预报对延伸期(11~15 d)的大范围持续性异常距平具有较强的捕捉能力,对异常距平出现的范围和分布、强距平中心的位置的预报均较好,但强度整体偏弱。     

Surface rainfall and cloud budgets associated with mei-yu torrential rainfall over eastern China during June 2011

Surface rainfall and cloud budgets associated with three heavy rainfall events that occurred over eastern China during the mei-yu season in June 2011 were analyzed using 2D cumulus ensemble model simulation data.Model domain mean rainfall showed three peaks in response to three prescribed ascending motion maxima,primarily through the mean moisture convergence during the torrential rainfall period.Prescribed ascending motion throughout the troposphere produced strong convective rainfall during the first （9 June） and third （17-18 June） rainfall events,whereas strong prescribed ascending motion in the mid and upper troposphere and weak subsidence near the surface generated equally important stratiform and convective rainfall during the second rainfall event （14 June）.The analysis of surface rainfall budgets reveals that convective rainfall was associated with atmospheric drying during the first event and moisture convergence during the third event.Both stratiform and convective rainfall responded primarily to moisture convergence during the second event.An analysis of grid data shows that the first and third mean rainfall maxima had smaller horizontal scales of the precipitation system than the second.     

Impact of vegetation feedback on the mid-Pliocene warm climate

Studying the vegetation feedback during warm periods of the past can lead to better understanding of those in the future.In this study,we conducted several simulations to analyze vegetation feedback during the mid-Pliocene warm period.The results indicate that the main features of vegetation change in the mid-Pliocene were a northward shift of needleleaf tree,an expansion of broadleaf tree and shrub,and a northward expansion of grass,as compared to the pre-industrial period.The global annual mean warming ratio caused by vegetation feedback was 12.1％,and this warming ratio was much larger in northern middle and high latitudes.The warming caused by vegetation change was directly related to the surface albedo change and was further amplified by snow/sea ice-albedo feedback.     

德钦佛山托罗铅锌矿地质特征及成因分析

在对该区野外地质调查的基础上,本文对该铅锌矿化带的成矿构造背景、矿化体特征进行了初步分析与总结,认为该矿受区域构造断裂控制,矿床类型为中低温热液脉状铅锌多金属矿床.该区成矿地质条件优越,矿化体较多,矿体在走向和倾向延伸方向仍可有新突破,并有找到新矿体的可能.     

宁镇地区燕山期侵入岩锆石U-Pb定年:长江中下游新一期成岩成矿作用的年代学证据

对宁镇地区3个典型燕山期岩体(安基山-伏牛山岩体、下蜀-高资岩体和石马岩体)的中酸性侵入岩进行LA-ICP MS锆石U-Pb定年,给出(109.1±1.9)~(101.6±1.1)Ma的年龄值,代表了这些侵入岩体的形成年代,为该地区中酸性侵入岩形成时代提供了精确的约束。宁镇地区铜-多金属成矿作用在时间、空间和成因上与100~110Ma左右的中酸性钙碱性岩浆活动相关联,区内成岩成矿作用是一个连续的过程。宁镇地区燕山期中酸性侵入岩形成于早白垩世晚期,而长江中下游九瑞等地区的同类型侵入岩形成于早白垩世早期,二者相差约25~35Ma;结合白垩纪以来太平洋板块活动特征对中国东部陆区成岩成矿的制约,这些年代学数据揭示出宁镇地区燕山期岩浆活动及其成矿响应是中生代长江中下游成矿带大规模岩浆-成矿活动的新一期成岩成矿事件,深部地球动力学背景对应中国东部中生代岩石圈拆沉-减薄事件。长江中下游地区的岩石圈减薄从135Ma左右开始,可能持续到100Ma左右。