Multi-Time Scale Analysis of Runoff at the Yangtze Estuary Based on the Morlet Wavelet Transform Method

Runoff series of the Yangtze River presents an intricate variation tendency under the reinforced influence of human activities.The Morlet Wavelet Transform method has been applied to analyze the annual runoff data from 1950 to 2011 at the Yangtze River Estuary.It can clearly reveal the multi-time scales structure,break point,change and distribution of periodic variation in the different time scales of the runoff series.The main conclusions are that：1） Repeated periodic oscillations accompanied by an extremely large fluctuation are presented in the runoff series with an obvious difference between wet and dry years,and the major periods of the time series are about 3,8,16 and 23 years respectively.Among them,the presented maximum periodic oscillation is 23 years scale.2） In the 23-year time scale,the wet periods are 1950-1958,1969-1980 and 1992-2003,and the dry periods are 1959-1968,1981-1991 and 2004-2011.3） It can be predicted from the view of long time scales that the low annual runoff will likely occur in the near future.     

煤层气压裂微震监测数据高级属性解释技术研究

为了提高煤层气压裂微震监测的精度,对压裂诱发裂缝进行精细刻画,利用淮南潘谢区块PX2-1井煤层气压裂地面微震监测数据,在微震事件定位等基础研究的基础上,研究了震源机制反演、地应力反演、水力裂缝渗透率等高级属性解释技术,结合数据特点,深入研究了基于震源机制的连续水力裂缝网络建模技术、水力裂缝渗透率反演技术,充分挖掘了煤层气压裂地面微震监测数据的丰富信息,精确描述了地下压裂裂缝的三维空间展布,为准确评价压裂效果提供了技术支撑。研究结果表明：微震高级属性解释技术在煤层气压裂监测领域有广泛的应用前景。     

利用非连续变形数值方法研究块体运动及其应力场初探

依据非连续变形数值分析方法（ＤＤＡ法）的基本理论,提出利用地壳形变观测资料解算块体运动及其应力场的“位移载荷法”,给出了相应的计算公式,根据断裂分布格局建立华北不连续块体模型,利用经过穗主基准变换的华北ＧＰＳ网观测资料计算了块体的运动方向,结果与观测资料比较吻合,块体视应力场的计算结果反映了本区的应力场状况初步研究表明,ＤＤＡ是一种值得进一步深入研究的新方法。最后对存在的问题和应用前景作了阐述。     

64层螺旋CT评估冠状动脉粥样硬化斑块的临床意义

目的:探讨64层螺旋CT血管造影评估冠状动脉粥样硬化斑块的临床应用价值。方法:回顾性收集2009年6月至9月62例冠心病患者,根据临床表现分为二组:急性冠脉综合征组和稳定型心绞痛组。经64层螺旋CT血管造影诊断,选择由动脉粥样硬化斑块引起的冠状动脉狭窄≥50%的血管100个节段共100个斑块,通过在轴位、曲面重建、最大密度投影、三维最大密度投影3D-MIP、容积再现5种图像上鉴别不同类型斑块,并测量斑块的CT值。结果:100个粥样斑块以Schroeder的两种评估斑块CT值方法作标准,两种标准的3种斑块分型例数高度一致,同一性100%;在急性冠脉综合征组中非钙化斑块的检出率明显高于稳定型心绞痛组,而稳定型心绞痛组钙化斑块检出率明显高于急性冠脉综合征组,两组在统计学上有显著差别(P<0.01)。结论:64层螺旋CT可依据斑块的CT值不同判断斑块的性质,可以早期检测不稳定斑块,非钙化斑块与冠心病危险性具有明显的正相关性。