拉萨城市地下水系统可开采资源评价

本文在青藏铁路区域水文地质调查工作的基础上,以系统理论的基本原理为出发点,利用地下水系统数值模型的运行,来对拉萨城市地下水系统可开采资源进行评价,取得了比较理想的结果.     

探讨1886-2012年期间全球二氧化碳浓度及城市化效应对于香港温度趋势变化的格兰杰因果关系

因果关系在许多科学领域中是一个重要课题。在气候变化研究中,一个关键的问题是天气和极端事件的变化是否或在何种程度上可以归因于全球变暖的人为因素。归因分析主要依赖于气候模型,但其在描述非线性系统中存在一定的局限性。本文应用长期观测数据并使用统计方法来探讨此问题。更具体地,本文应用格兰杰因果关系检验方法分析全球二氧化碳浓度与城市化效应对香港气温演变的影响。基于香港1886年至2012年的温度数据,我们发现其夏季平均、最高和最低气温以及酷热天气、热夜日数皆增加趋势。同时可以发现日温度的统计分布变化。格兰杰因果关系分析的结果表明,全球二氧化碳浓度的变化和城市化效应皆对香港气温的演变有所贡献,对于不同的时间滞后性这种效应同样存在。通过与非城市地区的比较,我们发现城市化效应对于夏季气温的升高大概贡献40％。根据初步的结果,文本所引入的方法可以作为一种新的角度来评估局部地区温度升高的原因。本文的分析方法可以扩展至研究其他温室气体对极端天气事件的影响,以及气候变化和社会影响之间的联系。     

非差模型与双差模型的定位精度比较

为了分析高精度GNSS数据处理中常用的双差模型和非差模型定位性能的差异,选取ITRF核心站组成长度不同但相对位置长期不变的基线,对2013年全年的有效数据分别采用两种模型进行解算,分析两者的相对坐标差异。结果表明:全年数据的非差解与双差解相对坐标的三维偏差序列的标准差达到8.2 mm,非差解与双差解存在定位偏差;非差解的相对坐标全年数据时间序列的平均标准差是(5.6,4.5,5.4) mm,而双差解是(3.4,3.1,4.0) mm,双差模型的解算精度和稳定性整体优于非差模型;随基线的增长,双差模型的差异呈现累积性,而非差模型的差异基本无变化,如42 m超短基线STJ2-STJO非差解和双差解全年数据的标准差分别为(6.2,4.8,5.7) mm和(3.0,2.9,3.0) mm,而487 km长基线HERS-WSRT则是(5.7,4.5,5.4) mm和(4.7,2.8,4.7) mm。     

Elastic-plastic analysis for pile-anchor supporting system of deep foundation pit

By using numerical analysis methods to simulate the deep excavation, a lot of analyses are established on the basis of two-dimensional plane strain, ignoring the fact that foundation pit possesses three dimensions. For soil constitutive relation, people always take linear and nonlinear model, without considering the plastic behavior of soil. Using plastic-elastic hardening model to simulate constitutive relation of soil characteristics, the authors carried out mechanical analysis for pit excavation and support. The results show that the analysis for the stress state of pile anchor system is an effective way which provides theoretical basis for calculation of soil displacement.     

Numerical simulation research on multi-electrodes resistivity imaging survey array

Multi-electrodes Resistivity Imaging Survey （MRIS） is an array method of electrical survey. In practice how to choose a reasonable array is the key to get reliable survey results. Based on four methods of MRIS such as Wenner, Schlumberger, Pole-pole and Dipole-dipole the authors established the model, by studying the result of the forward numerical simulation modeling and inverse modeling, and analyzed the differences among the different forms of detection devices.     

波速线性变化介质中地震波传播特征

根据变速介质中地震波传播所满足的变系数波动方程,推导出波速线性变化介质中一维波动方程的解析解,讨论了波速不均匀性对地震波传播的影响：地震波振幅衰减大小与介质速度梯度有关;频率转折点两侧地震波传播性质;频率与地震波波速关系。     

Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models: An Empirical Validation of ISWRidge Relationships

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p 〈0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to cheek the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height （X1 ） and potential energy （X2 ） significantly impact （p 〈 0. 0001 ） the amplitude-based refleeted rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all 〉 0.05 （0.2839, 0.3438, respectively）. That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height （ X1 ） and potential energy （X2） can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model. Investigation of 6 predictive powers （ R2, Max-rescaled R^2, Sorners＇ D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively） indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.     

高频电力线信息传输的电机模型与仿真

研究在电机驱动系统中,电力线通信的建模问题,着重讨论在高频时电机输入阻抗的特性下,电机模型的建立.通过实验测量得到电机和电力线在频率100 kHz～40 MHz的输入阻抗特性曲线,并分析高频输入阻抗的谐振特点.在Matlab中,提出基于阻抗公式的分析法、最小均方值误差估计法以及最优化方法进行模型的参数识别,将得到的参数代入模型中可以得到电机的阻抗模型.电机模型的精确度可以通过仿真曲线和测量曲线的逼近程度看出,从结果看仿真得到的阻抗曲线跟实际测量的阻抗曲线走向基本一致.     

动力学模型预测泥鳅(Misgurnus anguillicaudatus)半干制品的货架期

以泥鳅(Misgurnus anguillicaudatus)半干制品为研究对象,测定和分析其在不同贮藏温度(4°C、20°C、30°C和40°C)下,菌落总数、挥发性盐基氮(TVBN)、脂肪氧化程度(TBA值)与感官评分各项指标随贮藏时间的变化。结果表明,泥鳅半干制品在不同贮藏温度下,随着贮藏时间的延长品质逐渐下降,贮藏温度越低,品质指标变化越缓慢。经Pearson相关性分析,确定影响泥鳅半干制品品质变化的关键因子为菌落总数;基于Arrhenius方程,进一步建立菌落总数与贮藏时间、贮藏温度之间的动力学模型,该模型中活化能Ea为26.5 kJ/mol,反应速率常数k0为3186.6,推算得出泥鳅半干制品货架期预测值与实测值相对误差较小,该动力学模型可准确预测泥鳅半干制品在4—40°C贮藏温度下的货架期。本研究可为泥鳅半干制品的开发、流通奠定理论基础。