Hispanic Immigrants' Vulnerabilities to Flood and Hurricane Hazards in Two United States Metropolitan Areas

Research reveals that disasters are disproportionately debilitating for marginalized social groups. Numerous studies have examined racial/ethnic dimensions of disaster vulnerability, but few have focused on Hispanic immigrants. More research on Hispanic immigrants is needed, since they constitute a major component of the Hispanic population—the largest and fastest‐growing minority group in the U.S.—and because they experience distinctive cultural and immigration status disadvantages. We examine the flood/hurricane vulnerabilities of Hispanic immigrants in comparison to U.S.–born Hispanics and non‐Hispanic whites. Using mixed methods to analyze data from 429 surveys and 31 interviews with residents living in flood zones, we examine differences in self‐protective action, risk perception, and hazard knowledge between the three groups in Houston and Miami. Hispanic immigrants exhibited lower levels of self‐protection and hazard knowledge, and higher perceptions of risk, which reflects their heightened vulnerability. Risk‐reduction programs should target the particular vulnerabilities of Hispanic immigrants, and future studies should examine their vulnerabilities in other contexts.     

Dynamics and role of the Durban cyclonic eddy in the KwaZulu-Natal Bight ecosystem

The semi-permanent Durban Eddy is a mesoscale, lee-trapped, cold-core cyclonic circulation that occurs off the east coast of South Africa between Durban in the north and Sezela, some 70 km to the south. When present, strong north-eastward countercurrents reaching 100 cm s^–1 are found inshore. It is hypothesised that the cyclone is driven by the strong south-westward flowing Agulhas Current offshore of the regressing shelf edge near Durban. Analysis of ADCP data and satellite imagery shows the eddy to be present off Durban approximately 55% of the time, with an average lifespan of 8.6 days, and inter-eddy periods of 4 to 8 days. After spin-up the eddy breaks loose from its lee position and propagates downstream on the inshore boundary of the Agulhas Current. The eddy is highly variable in occurrence, strength and downstream propagation speeds. There is no detectable seasonal cycle in eddy occurrence, with the Natal Pulse causing more variability than any seasonal signal. A thermistor array deployed in the eddy centre, together with ship CTD data, indicates upward doming of the thermal structure in the eddy core associated with cooler water and nutrients being moved higher in the water column, stimulating primary production. Together with the use of satellite imagery, our findings indicate a second mechanism of upwelling, viz. divergent upwelling in the northern limb of the eddy. Satellite-tracked surface drifters released in the eddy demonstrated the potential for nutrient-rich eddy water to be transported northwards along the inshore regions of the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) Bight, thus contributing to the functioning of the bight ecosystem, as well as southwards along the KZN and Transkei coasts – both by the eddy migrating downstream and by eddy water being recirculated into the inshore boundary of the Agulhas Current itself.     

Role of heterogeneities in jointing (fracturing) of geological media: Numerical analysis of fracture mechanisms

Fracture process is investigated using finite-difference simulations with a new constitutive model. It is shown that both geometry and fracture mechanism itself depend on the preexisting heterogeneities that are stress concentrators. In the brittle regime (low pressure, P), Mode-I fractures propagate normal to the least stress σ₃ from the imposed weak zones. At high P, shear deformation bands are formed oblique to σ₃. At intermediate values of P, the fracture process involves both shear banding and tensile cracking and results in the initiation and propagation of pure dilation bands. The propagating band tip undulates, reacting on the failure mechanism changes, but its global orientation is normal to σ₃. The σ₃-normal fractures are joints. There are thus two types of joints resulting from Mode-I cracking and dilation banding, respectively. The obtained numerical results are in good agreement with and explain the results from previous similar experimental study.     

The global search and commercialization of alternatives and substitutes for ozone-depleting substances

The Montreal Protocol has halted 99% of global production of chemical substances that deplete stratospheric ozone, which protects life on earth from the harmful effects of ultraviolet (UVB) radiation. UVB causes skin cancer and cataracts, suppresses the human immune system, destroys plastics, and damages agricultural crops and natural ecosystems. Because ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) are powerful greenhouse gases, the Montreal Protocol also protects climate. From the authors’ perspectives in multiple roles as environmental entrepreneurs, practitioners, and authorities, this paper explains how individuals, companies, and military organizations researched, developed, commercialized and implemented alternatives to ODSs that are also safer for climate. With the benefit of hindsight, the authors reflect on what was neglected or done badly under the Montreal Protocol and present lessons learned on how Montreal Protocol institutions can be renewed and revitalized to phase down hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs).     

四川盆地东部垫江凹陷三叠系嘉陵江组岩盐氯同位素特征与成钾指标研究

垫江凹陷位于四川盆地东部,是四川盆地三叠纪时期重要的成盐凹陷之一,但当时古卤水是否达到钾盐沉积阶段,是否具备形成海相钾盐的良好条件,一直存在争议。本文通过对垫江凹陷长平3井、高探1井和ZK001井嘉陵江组岩盐样品进行化学成分分析,以及对长平3井典型岩盐样品进行氯同位素分析来判断古卤水沉积阶段和成钾条件。结果发现垫江凹陷三叠系嘉陵江组岩盐δ37 Cl值均为负值,均小于-0.32‰,最低达到-1.18‰,绝大部分岩盐样品溴氯系数大于0.31,有很大一部分样品溴氯系数超过0.45,进一步表明垫江凹陷在嘉陵江期古卤水浓缩已达到钾石盐析出阶段,与岩盐包裹体成分分析结果一致。综合气候-物源-构造因素,认为垫江凹陷三叠纪嘉陵江期气候条件炎热,物质来源丰富,存在次级凹陷,古构造条件优越,具备良好的成钾潜力。     

FY-3 A/MERS I积雪制图中NDS I指标建立及积雪判识模型研究 ——以祁连山区为例

我国新型自主的极轨气象卫星风云3号A星（简称FY-3A）上搭载的中分辨率光谱成像仪（MERSI）为大面积雪监测提供了新的遥感数据源。以中国西北祁连山区为例,分析FY-3A/MERSI传感器积雪与其它地物的图谱特征差异,建立了适用于FY-3A/MERSI的归一化差分积雪指数（NDSI）,以此为基础,构建了综合利用多光谱判别指标及土地覆盖类型（LULC）定类辅助的积雪判识模型,生成250 m分辨率的日积雪制图产品。模型通过逐步逼近的树状判别结构,去除了易和积雪混淆的部分乔木林、云、云阴影、水体、湖冰、沙（盐）地等地物,并提出应考虑积雪下覆地表特性的影响,调整设定不同LULC类型的积雪判别阈值约束,实时结合区域LULC影像进行积雪的最终判定与优化。对祁连山区2010-2011年积雪季FY-3A/MERSI影像的积雪制图应用结果表明,该资料能够客观精细地反映积雪的空间分布与动态发展过程。同时利用气象台站积雪观测记录及Terra/MODIS积雪判识结果进行对比验证,结果表明基于FY-3A/MERSI建立的积雪判识模型具有较高的精度和稳定性,特别是提高了云雪区分的效能。     

全球N-MORB和E-MORB分类方案对比

N-MORB与E-MORB是大洋中脊玄武岩常用的分类,二者地球动力学意义不同,备受学术界关注。对于N-MORB与E-MORB的分类识别标志,不同作者有不同的见解。MORB中可以根据Rb/Nd≤0.15、K/Ti≤0.11、(La/Sm)_N≤0.8、K_2O/TiO_20.09、ΔNb=1.74+lg(Nb/Y)-1.92lg(Zr/Y)0、(La/Sm)_N1、100K_2O/TiO_2≤13等7种指标来识别N-MORB,否则为E-MORB。究竟何种标志区分效果较好、比较适合大多数MORB的情况?学术界对此还较少有人讨论。为此,本文尝试利用大数据方法,采用全球全体扩张中心数据,对上述7种标志进行对比,发现(La/Sm)_N1的标志比较适合大多数MORB的情况。为此,我们将(La/Sm)_N1和(La/Sm)_N≥1的所有数据,选取La、Ce、Pr、Nd、Sm、Eu、Gd、Tb、Dy、Ho、Er、Tm、Yb、Lu、Ba、Cs、Hf、K、Nb、Pb、Rb、Sc、Sr、Ta、Th、Ti、Tl、U、V、Y、Zr等31个元素,利用两两元素对数比值进行投图,并计算85%置信度的置信椭圆交叠率,共得出36856个元素对组合,根据最小交叠率的原则,得出使用稀土元素La、Ce、Pr、Sm和其他高场强元素Nb、Zr、Hf、Y之间的比值关系判别效果较好。我们又利用以上得出的8种元素进行投图判定,发现以La为分子或以La/Hf、La/Zr元素比值做为区分标志可以得出更好的结果。因此建议考虑应用以上元素之间的相关关系共同判定N-MORB与E-MORB。     

黄河口清水沟河道的冲淤过程与模拟

为揭示黄河口清水沟河道长时段的冲淤演变规律并建立其冲淤计算方法,分析了清水沟1976—2015年的时空冲淤演变过程,采用河床演变的滞后响应模型,考虑河口来水来沙及河道延伸与蚀退的影响,建立了清水沟累计冲淤量的计算方法。结果表明:1976—1980年改道初期清水沟改道点上游先冲后淤,改道点下游淤滩塑槽,淤积量随着下游河道展宽而增加,1980年后改道点上、下游河道冲淤过程趋于一致;受水沙条件等因素影响,1980—1986年清水沟主槽冲刷展宽,之后主槽淤积萎缩;1996年清八改汊和2002年小浪底水库"调水调沙"原型试验以来,河道转淤为冲,2002年后河道冲刷速率随时间指数衰减;河床演变的滞后响应模型可计算清水沟长时段的冲淤过程,该方法可为预测未来清水沟冲淤演变趋势提供科学参考。     

三峡库区四方碑滑坡稳定性与变形趋势预测

三峡水库建成后,库水位周期性涨落和暴雨产生的渗流作用导致大量古滑坡的复活或新滑坡的发生。以库区近水平层状结构的四方碑滑坡为例,依据库水位实际调动,将水位从175 m至145 m不同降速与50年一遇暴雨进行工况组合,计算4种工况下滑坡的稳定性及破坏概率。然后采用Geo-studio软件的Sigma模块对滑坡进行变形模拟,运用R/S分析方法判断滑坡的变形持续性,并结合野外调查情况,综合评价分析四方碑滑坡的稳定性。结果表明:滑坡在各工况下整体均处于基本稳定状态,具有低危险性;变形模拟结果显示滑坡前缘位移最大,与野外调查情况一致;各监测点Hurst指数均介于0.5~1,表明时间序列具有正持续性,在研究的时间限度内滑坡的局部破坏增强,应在汛期加强对滑坡前缘的巡查和预警。     

Chronology of the Mediterranean sea-level highstand during the Last Interglacial: a critical review of the U/Th-dated deposits

Relative sea-level (RSL) evolution during Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 5 in the Mediterranean basin is still not fully understood despite a plethora of morphological, stratigraphic and geochronological studies carried out on highstand deposits of this area. In this review we assembled a database of 323 U/Th-dated samples (e.g. corals, molluscs, speleothems) which were used to chronologically constrain RSL evolution within MIS 5. The application of strict geochemical criteria to the U/Th samples indicates that only ~33% of data available for the Mediterranean Sea can be considered ‘reliable’. Most of these data (~65%) refer to the MIS 5e highstand, while only ~17% could be related to the MIS 5a. No attribution to MIS 5c can be unequivocally supported. Nevertheless, the resulting framework does not allow us to define a satisfactory RSL trend during the MIS 5e highstand and subsequent MIS 5 substages. Overall, the proposed selection of reliable/unreliable data would be useful for detecting areas where MIS 5 substage attributions are not supported by confident U/Th chronological data and thus the related reconstructions need to be revised. In this regard, the resulting framework calls for a reappraisal and re-examination of the Mediterranean records with advanced geochronological methodologies.