基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

Determination of subcatchment and watershed boundaries in a complex and highly urbanized landscape

Urban development significantly alters the landscape by introducing widespread impervious surfaces, which quickly convey surface run‐off to streams via stormwater sewer networks, resulting in “flashy” hydrological responses. Here, we present the inadequacies of using raster‐based digital elevation models and flow‐direction algorithms to delineate large and highly urbanized watersheds and propose an alternative approach that accounts for the influence of anthropogenically modified land cover. We use a semi‐automated approach that incorporates conventional drainage networks into overland flow paths and define the maximal run‐off contributing area. In this approach, stormwater pipes are clustered according to their slope attributes, which define flow direction. Land areas drained by each cluster and contributing (or exporting) flow to a topographically delineated catchment were determined. These land masses were subsequently added or removed from the catchment, modifying both the shape and the size. Our results in a highly urbanized Toronto, Canada, area watershed indicate a moderate net increase in the directly connected watershed area by 3% relative to a topographically forced method; however, differences across three smaller scale subcatchments are greater. Compared to topographic delineation, the directly connected watershed areas of both the upper and middle subcatchments decrease by 5% and 8%, respectively, whereas the lower subcatchment area increases by 15%. This is directly related to subsurface storm sewer pipes that cross topographic boundaries. When directly connected subcatchment area is plotted against total streamflow and flashiness indices using this method, the coefficients of variation are greater (0.93 to 0.97) compared to the use of digital elevation model‐derived subcatchment areas (0.78 to 0.85). The accurate identification of watershed and subcatchment boundaries should incorporate ancillary data such as stormwater sewer networks and retention basin drainage areas to reduce water budget errors in urban systems.     

景观生态分类与制图浅议

本文在查阅分析大量文献和前人研究的基础上 ,对目前景观生态分类和景观制图作了详细的对比分析 ,认为景观分类需要结合实际区域现状 ,采用逐级分类的方法 ;同时利用 ETM遥感影像为数据源 ,以天山北麓为示范区.研制其土地利用土地覆盖变化的景观类型图。     

AN ILLUSTRATIVE STUDY ON LOCAL LANDSCAPEAND ITS LONG-TERM CHANGES BASED ON IKONOS AND HISTORICAL AERIAL PHOTO

Nowadays, the research works on landscape at fine scales using high-resolution images are uncommon.This research is based on the analysis of the combination of remote sensing data (1KONOS imagery acquired in 2002 and historical aerial photo taken in 1942). In the paper, the ecotopes in Qiujiadou and Xishao villages in Yixing City of Jiangsu Province in 1942 and 2002 were compared and landscape changes as well as the causes of the considerable changes were analyzed. It was found that the ecotope changes were at greater level in some aspects such as water surface and perennial vegetation coverage etc. This study at fine scale is globally significant for the rural areas, especially for the subsistence agricultural land, which occupies larger percentage in the earth. And it analyzes the structure of landscape based on a new landscape classification system--stratifications method.     

太阳发电机理论研究进展

太阳发电机理论主要解释太阳磁场的起源和演化，是太阳物理中最基本、最重要的问题之一．对它的研究不仅具有重要的科学价值，而且对空间天气的预测和空间技术的发展有一定的影响．随着日震学的发展，该理论也得到了很大改进。从相关观测入手，综述了发电机理论需解释的观测事实，以及为发电机理论提供约束的太阳内部动力学结构；介绍了基本理论和近来的主流模型，并指出尚待解决的问题和进一步的努力方向。     

中国1∶100万景观生态制图设计

中国1∶100万景观生态图系借鉴国内外传统景观制图方法和制图规范,在遥感、地理信息系统先进技术的支持下,设计研制其制图方法、制图内容、样图和技术流程,同时提出初步的景观分类系统,为今后编制中国1∶100万景观生态图奠定基础。     

ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY AND SCENARIOS OF URBANIZATION IN ARID AREA——A Case Study in Wuwei City of Gansu Province

1IN T R O D U C T IO N The western China isfacinggrowing problems of eco- logicaland economic development. The disparitiebse- tween the socio-economy of the western and eastern China were enlarging, and the major ecologicalprob- lems stilelvolve as past(H…     

Application of micropolar plasticity to post failure analysis in geomechanics

A micropolar elastoplastic model for soils is formulated and a series of finite element analyses are employed to demonstrate the use of a micropolar continuum in overcoming the numerical difficulties encountered in application of finite element method in standard Cauchy–Boltzmann continuum. Three examples of failure analysis involving a deep excavation, shallow foundation, and a retaining wall are presented. In all these cases, it is observed that the length scale introduced in the polar continuum regularizes the incremental boundary value problem and allows the numerical simulation to be continued until a clear collapse mechanism is achieved. The issue of grain size effect is also discussed. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

济宁市嘉祥县石灰岩矿山地质环境评价与治理

在对嘉祥县石灰岩矿进行地质灾害危险性评估、矿山环境地质问题评价的基础上,建立了一套评价体系,其中地质灾害危险性评估分为2个评价指标,矿山环境地质问题评价分为2种要素3个指标,同时将矿山恢复治理难易程度也作为一个评价因子。评价过程中对各指标危害性大、中、小程度均单独赋值,然后将各指标的分值进行叠加,确定出矿山环境地质问题的等级,将概划出的13个评价单元分为极差、差、一般3个区。提出了强化矿山管理、植树造林、科学避让、修建拦水坝等保护与治理措施及建议。