Monthly Extended Predicting Experiments with Nonlinear Regional Prediction.PartⅡ:Improvement of Wave Component Prediction

Based on Chen et al. (2006), the scheme of the combination of the pentad-mean zonal height departure nonlinear prediction with the T42L9 model prediction was designed, in which the pentad zonal heights at all the 12-initial-value-input isobar levels from 50 hPa to 1000 hPa except 200, 300, 500, and 700 hPa were derived from nonlinear forecasts of the four levels by means of a good correlation between neighboring levels. Then the above pentad zonal heights at 12 isobar-levels were transformed to the spectrum coefficients of the temperature at each integration step of T42L9 model. At last, the nudging was made. On account of a variety of error accumulation, the pentad zonal components of the monthly height at isobar levels output by T42L9 model were replaced by the corresponding nonlinear results once more when integration was over. Multiple case experiments showed that such combination of two kinds of prediction made an improvement in the wave component as a result of wave-flow nonlinear interaction while reducing the systematical forecast errors. Namely the monthly-mean height anomaly correlation coefficients over the high- and mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, over the Southern Hemisphere and over the globe increased respectively from 0.249 to 0.347, from 0.286 to 0.387, and from 0.343 to 0.414 (relative changes of 31.5%, 41.0%, and 18.3%). The monthly-mean root-mean-square error (RMSE) of T42L9 model over the three areas was considerably decreased, the relative change over the globe reached 44.2%. The monthly-mean anomaly correlation coefficients of wave 4-9 over the areas were up to 0.392, 0.200, and 0.295, with the relative change of 53.8%, 94.1%, and 61.2%, and correspondingly their RMSEs were decreased respectively with the rate of 8.5%, 6.3%, and 8.1%. At the same time the monthly-mean pattern of parts of cases were presented better.     

Monthly Extended Predicting Experiments with Nonlinear Regional Prediction.PartⅠ:Prediction of Zonal Mean Flow

Systematic errors have recently been founded to be distinct in the zonal mean component forecasts, which account for a large portion of the total monthly-mean forecast errors. To overcome the difficulty of numerical model, the monthly pentad-riean nonlinear dynamic regional prediction models of the zonal mean geopotential height at 200, 300, 500, and 700 hPa based on a large number of historical data (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data) were constituted by employing the local approximation of the phase space reconstruction theory and nonlinear spatio-temporal series prediction method. The 12-month forecast experiments of 1996 indicated that the results of the nonlinear model are better than those of the persistent, climatic prediction, and T42L9 model either over the high- and mid-latitude areas of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres or the tropical area. The root-mean-square of the monthly-mean height of T42L9 model was considerably decreased with a change of 30.4%, 26.6%, 82.6%, and 39.4%, respectively, over the high- and mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, over the high- and mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, over the tropics and over the globe, and also the corresponding anomaly correlation coefficients over the four areas were respectively increased by 0.306-0.312, 0.304-0.429, 0.739-0.746, and 0.360-0.400 (averagely a relative change of 11.0% over the globe) by nonlinear correction after integration, implying that the forecasts given by nonlinear model include more useful information than those of T42L9 model.     

地带性与非地带性夷平面*

夷平面是指由剥蚀和夷平作用所产生的,以截面形式横切所有在年龄上先于它的地层和构造的一种平缓地形。前人普遍认为,夷平面是在构造相对稳定条件下经过长期外营力作用形成的一个接近基准面的平坦地形,是地貌长期演化的终极产物。 流水侵蚀是夷平面形成的动力学基础。"夷平面"一直是解释新生代以来大的构造格局和地貌演化的重要理论依据,如我国青藏高原隆升的研究。 基于气候地貌学原理,文章提出了寒冻夷平面和干旱夷平面的概念;从坡地演化过程理论模型入手,探讨了寒冻、干旱夷平面和流水夷平面的形成机理;提出有别于传统"构造侵蚀旋迴"理论的"构造隆升和地面剥夷动态平衡"的气候夷平地貌假说;此外,还简要分析了这三类夷平面的全球分布规律。     

贵州革东地区带状热储赋存规律研究

通过对贵州革东变质岩地区地热水的水化学、氢氧同位素及地热井的地温场垂向变化的分析,结果表明:(1)区域地热井热储呈带状(Ⅱ-2型);(2)区域大地热流量供热,补给来源为大气降水,补给高程下限1100m,地热水循环深度下限2400m,围岩与上层地下水影响其化学组分;(3)挽近期革东活动断层具有导热导水性,经循环的地热水沿断层上盘构造裂隙向上运移在此断层破碎带富集,位于断层上盘3km范围内的地热钻孔揭穿该断裂带深度约1200m,均有流量约994m3/d、井口水温40℃的地热水。研究结果可为黔东南地区带状热储的开发与利用提供参考。     

Intraseasonal variability of the surface zonal current in the equatorial Indian Ocean: Seasonal differences and causes

Using observations and numerical simulations, this study examines the intraseasonal variability of the surface zonal current(u ISV) over the equatorial Indian Ocean, highlighting the seasonal and spatial differences, and the causes of the differences. Large-amplitude u ISV occurs in the eastern basin at around 80°–90°E and near the western boundary at 45°–55°E. In the eastern basin, the u ISV is mainly caused by the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillations(ISOs), which explains 91% of the standard...     

The Impact of an Abnormal Zonal Vertical Circulation in Autumn of Super El Ni?o Years on Non-tropical-cyclone Heavy Rainfall over Hainan Island

This study reveals a significant positive connection between autumn non-tropical-cyclone heavy rainfall on Hainan Island and the intensity of Eastern Pacific (EP) El Ni?o events. That is, the amount of rainfall in super EP El Ni?o years is more than that in normal EP El Ni?o years. Comparing EP El Ni?o years of different intensities, the cooler sea surface temperature in the northwestern Pacific during super EP El Ni?o years stimulates a negative surface latent heat flux (LHF) anomaly and abnormal anticyclonic circulation at 850 hPa. Under these conditions, an abnormal zonal vertical circulation develops in the northern South China Sea once a positive LHF anomaly and abnormal cyclonic circulation (ACC) at 850 hPa occur in the Beibu Gulf. The abnormal zonal vertical circulation further strengthens the ascending motion over Hainan Island, as the critical factor that leads to excessive rainfall. Further analysis shows that the positive LHF anomaly, which can be attributed to the increased latent heat transfer which resulted from the increased surface wind speed, is an important trigger for the ACC. However, the ACC is also the supplier of favorable moisture conditions because it intensifies vapor convergence over Hainan Island and meridionally transports moisture from the South China Sea to northeastern Hainan Island, thereby generating heavy rainfall. This paper emphasizes that the impact of El Ni?o events, especially super El Ni?o events, on rainfall over Hainan Island cannot be ignored, even if the traditional view is that frequent rainfall occurs mainly in La Ni?a years.     

Cyclonic-anticyclonic asymmetry and a new soliton concept for rossby vortices in the laboratory,oceans and the atmospheres of giant planets

Abstract

It is demonstrated in laboratory experiments with rotating shallow water that large scale Rossby vortices, greater than the Rossby-Obukhov radius in size, have dispersive and non-linear properties that are fundamentally different for the two possible polarities. We call this “cyclonic-anticyclonic asymmetry”. This asymmetry manifests itself in the following way: first, anticylones, unlike cyclones, do not undergo the dispersive spreading inherent in a linear wave packet. and therefore, having a considerably longer natural lifetime, are obvious candidates for Rossby solitons; second, dipolar vortices are, because of the comparatively rapid decay of a cyclone, transformed into anticyclonic solitons; third, anticyclones are much more readily generated by zonal flows of the type existing in planetary atmospheres. The evident dominance of anticyclones amongst the long-lived vortices in the atmospheres of giant planets strongly suggests that the cyclonic-anticyclonic symmetry plays a decisive role in the atmospheric cyclogenesis of large planets.

According to our concept, the Rossby soliton is a “real” vortex; unlike a wave, it retains some fluid particles within it throughout its lifetime. Two similar solitons can merge by mutual collisions. This picture of a “vortical” soliton differs in an essential way from the earlier idea due to Maxworthy and Redekopp (1976) of purely “wave-like” Rossby solitons that can freely pass through one another.

Laboratory experiments were performed by us to simulate the new Rossby solition, with special reference to naturally-occurring vortices of the same general type as Jupiter's great red spot. The experimental data presented contradict the idea of “pure wave solitons” but confirm our concept of “vortical solutions”.     

Effect of pressure gradients and line-tying on the magnetic stability of coronal loops

Abstract

In this paper we study the stability of an idealised magnetostatic coronal loop, incorporating both the effect of line-tying, due to the dense photosphere, and of pressure gradients. The stability equations may be solved analytically for our particular equilibrium. From the marginally stable case, the critical conditions separating instability from stability are derived. It is found that stretching or twisting a loop eventually makes it kink unstable.     

深部巷道围岩变形破坏机制分析

采用弹脆性本构模型以及滑移破坏理论,对深部围岩应力分布以及变形破坏机制进行分析。计算结果表明,开挖卸荷将引起剪应力的增长,滑移剪切变形的发展将围岩划分成具有一定尺度的块体（或条带）,它们之间的相互摩擦决定着残余强度的大小;在各向不均匀压缩的作用下,深部围岩能够产生区域拉伸破碎,使围岩开挖断面监测到的位移大大超出按连续介质理论计算得到的数值。采用考虑扩容的计算模型可以得到围岩产生区域拉伸破碎的条件,计算得到的该条件与岩体力学性质以及破碎尺度密切相关。     

工程地质区及其在地球各大陆的分布

在地球各大陆上工程地质条件水平和垂直上的变化反映出它们的区域性,它受控于该地区的热量、湿度及其比率。这就是在类似地质结构的地区中,不同的纬度和海拔高度形成了不同的工程地质条件的原因。引入工程地质区这个概念的目的在于说明工程地质条件的区域性。工程地质区一词的意义是指一个大的工程地质地区或省,在其中主要由水的形态决定的岩土状态是均一的并从工程地质观点来看具有区域稳定性。已经确定了以下工程地质区类型:永久性的多年冻土区域、多年冻土和融化沉积共存区域,以及融化和不冻岩石区域,它们再细分为亚区。工程地质条件区域性概念要考虑的主要问题有:分区原则、工程地质区域的类型和种类、地球各大陆上工程地质区域的空间分布规律性、“理想”大陆上的分布模型。