指数平滑技术在斜坡位移预测中的应用

应用趋势型数据指数平滑模型预测了链子崖危岩体监测点GA的位移量.根据其观测数据呈线性趋势的特点,选取趋势型二次指数平滑的线性预测公式和合适的平滑常数值进行了计算预测.预测结果表明位移预测值与实际观测值之间的误差很小,说明该模型可很好地应用于斜坡变形位移的预测.     

滑坡变形立体监测网建设

论文简要介绍了滑坡监测工作内容和监测方法，对现有技术方法在实际工作中的优缺点进行了简要评述。认为在滑坡稳定性监测工作中应该建立全方位、多种手段的立体监测网，仅仅运用某一种或者某一单方面的监测方法是不行的，是片面的，无法准确了解滑坡的动态。所说的立体监测网既有水平位移监测又有垂直位移监测，既有滑坡地表表层变形监测又有滑体深部变形监测，既有专业监测又有群测群防体系。同时监测有可能准确地掌握使滑坡失稳的各种因素（自然因素和人为因素）。因此建议在滑坡监测中建立全方位、多种手段的立体监测网，并提出了立体监测网建设的主要内容。     

Quantitative assessment on the influence of heavy rainfall on the crystalline schist landslide by monitoring system -case study on Zentoku landslide, Japan

On Shikoku Island, which is one of the four main islands of Japan, a large number of large-scale crystalline schist landslides have been revealed and are being monitored by an observation system. Seasonal heavy rainfall is the most active meteorological factor that can threaten the stability of this kind of site-specific landslide. In this paper, on the basis of the study of the rainfall-related behavior of a typical crystalline schist landslide, the Zentoku landslide, by analyzing the precisely and continuously observed piezometric and movement data, a method was developed to quantitatively assess the effect of heavy rainfall on a large-scale landslide. The results indicated that heavy rainfall-induced landslide displacement shows good correlation with the variation of groundwater levels. Variations of groundwater level have been simulated with the use of a tank model. The simulation using this model permits the change in water levels for future rainfall events to be predicted. By combining the predicted results with the empirical relation between displacements and water levels, rainfall-induced landslide movement during extreme rainfall events can be estimated in advance. The effect of heavy rainfall on sliding behavior can be quantified in terms of the change in displacement. Thus warning information or advisories for the local residents can be provided.     

Simplified multi-block constitutive model predicting earthquake-induced landslide triggering and displacement along slip surfaces of saturated sand

Slopes consisting of saturated sand have recently moved down-slope tens or hundreds of meters under the action of earthquakes. This paper presents a simplified but accurate method predicting the triggering and displacement of such landslides. For this purpose, a simplified constitutive model simulating soil response of saturated sands along slip surfaces is proposed and validated. Then, this constitutive model is coupled with the multi-block sliding system model to predict the triggering and displacement of such slides. The multi-block model considers a general mass sliding on a trajectory which consists of n linear segments. The steps needed to apply this method are described in detail. The method was applied successfully to predict the triggering, the motion and the final configuration of the well-documented (a) Higashi Takezawa, (b) Donghekou and (c) Nikawa earthquake-induced slides.     

Sediment transfer in an extremely low-gradient,low-relief and highly buffered system: Darwin Harbour catchment,northern Australia

Abstract

Sediment yields from and sediment transfer within catchments of very low relief and gradient, which make up about 50% of Earth’s surface, are poorly documented and their internal sediment dynamics are poorly known. Sediment sources, their proportionate contributions to valley floors and sediment yield, and storage are estimated using fallout radionuclides ²¹⁰Pb_(ex) and ¹³⁷Cs in the catchments that drain into Darwin Harbour, northern Australia, an example of this understudied catchment type that appears to be globally at the extreme end of this category of catchments. Unchannelled grassy valley floors (dambos, or seasonal wetlands) trap ～90% of the sediment delivered from hillslopes by sheet and rill erosion. Further down valley, small channels transport ～10% of the sediment that escapes from the dambos, and the remaining sediment comes from erosion of the channels. In this case, the fractional sediment storage is very high as a result of the existence of dambos, a landform that depends for its existence on low gradients.     

Limitations of suction‐controlled triaxial tests in the characterization of unsaturated soils

Behavior of unsaturated soils is influenced by many factors, and the influences of these factors are usually coupled together. Suction‐controlled triaxial (SCTX) tests are considered to allow researchers to investigate influences of individual variables on unsaturated soils under specified stress path with controls of stresses, pore water, and air pressures. In the past 50 years, SCTX testing method has been established as a standard approach to characterize constitutive behavior of unsaturated soils. Most important concepts for modern unsaturated soil mechanics were developed upon results from the SCTX tests. Among these, one of the most important contributions in the constitutive modeling of elasto‐plastic behavior for unsaturated soils is the Barcelona basic model (BBM) proposed by Alonso et al. in 1990. The BBM successfully explained many features of unsaturated soils and received extensive acceptance. However, the SCTX tests are designed based upon the divide‐and‐conquer approach in which an implicit assumption is used: soil behavior is stress‐path independent. However, it is well‐established that unsaturated soil behavior is elasto‐plastic and stress‐path dependent. It is found that the SCTX tests in fact cannot control the stress path of an unsaturated soil during loading. This incapability, in combination with complicated loading/collapse behavior of unsaturated soils, makes the SCTX tests for characterizing unsaturated soil questionable. This paper discusses the limitations of the SCTX tests in the characterization of unsaturated soils. A possible solution to the problem was proposed based on a newly developed modified state surface approach. The discussions are limited for isotropic conditions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Elastoplastic model with loading memory surfaces (LMS) for monotonic and cyclic behaviour of geomaterials

A new elastoplastic model called loading memory surface based on the critical state concept and the multi‐surface framework is proposed for geomaterials. The model uses a hypoelastic formulation and two plastic mechanisms. The formulations of the model are made in three‐dimensional stress–strain space and work under both monotonic and cyclic loadings. A newly introduced formalism makes it possible to obtain the cyclic response directly from the monotonic loading one. This formalism gives a three‐dimensional generalization of the well‐known Masing rule. The model has been validated against test results of Hostun sand under several conditions: monotonic and cyclic, drained and undrained, tests in compression and in extension, and at different confining pressures and different densities. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Critical Top Tension for Static Equilibrium Configuration of A Steel Catenary Riser

This paper aims to present the critical top tension for static equilibrium configurations of a steel catenary riser（SCR） by using the finite element method. The critical top tension is the minimum top tension that can maintain the equilibrium of the SCR. If the top tension is smaller than the critical value, the equilibrium of the SCR does not exist. If the top tension is larger than the critical value, there are two possible equilibrium configurations. These two configurations exhibit the nonlinear large displacement. The configuration with the smaller displacement is stable, while the one with larger displacement is unstable. The numerical results show that the increases in the riser＇s vertical distances, horizontal offsets, riser＇s weights, internal flow velocities, and current velocities increase the critical top tensions of the SCR. In addition, the parametric studies are also performed in order to investigate the limit states for the analysis and design of the SCR.     

Analysis of rectangular piles subjected to lateral loads in nonhomogeneous soil using a Winkler model approach

An analytical approach using a Winkler model based on two lateral soil displacement components in a three‐dimensional soil is investigated to provide analytical solutions of horizontal response of a rectangular pile subjected to lateral loads in nonhomogeneous soil. The two lateral displacement components of a soil surrounding the rectangular pile are represented by the Fourier series of displacement potential functions in the elastic three‐dimensional analysis. The lateral stiffness coefficient of the rectangular pile shaft in nonhomogeneous soil is derived from the rocking stiffness coefficient taking into account rocking rotation of a rigid pile shaft. The relationship between horizontal displacement, rotation, moment, and shear force for the rectangular pile subjected to horizontal loads in nonhomogeneous soil is obtainable in the form of the recurrence equation. The formulation of lateral displacement and rotation for a rectangular pile subjected to lateral loads on the pile base in nonhomogeneous soil is proposed by taking into account Mindlin's equation and the equivalent thickness for soil layers in the equivalent elastic method. The difference of lateral behavior between square and circular piles subjected to lateral loads is insignificant. The effect of aspect ratio of the rectangular pile on the lateral behavior is great for the lower stiffness ratio between pile and soil and the larger length–equivalent diameter ratio. The effect of the value of Poisson's ratio of soil on lateral stiffness coefficient is relatively small except Poisson's ratio close to 0.5. The comparison of the results calculated by the current method for a rectangular pile subjected to lateral loads in nonhomogeneous soil has shown good agreement with those obtained from the analytical methods and the finite element method. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Higher tritium concentrations measured in permafrost thaw lakes in northern Alberta

Tritium concentrations were measured in a survey of 24 lakes, 15 wetlands, and 133 groundwaters in the oil sands region of northeastern Alberta and compared with both recent precipitation and precipitation sampled during the 1960s tritium peak caused by atmospheric thermonuclear weapons testing. Water samples from lakes included a group of 14 thaw lakes that had higher runoff attributed to melting of permafrost in peat plateaus within their watersheds. While tritium in all lakes was found to be intermediate between recent and 1960s concentrations, the thaw lakes were found to be significantly enriched in tritium compared with other lakes, as were unfrozen wetlands characterized by a thick sequence of low‐hydraulic conductivity peat. The results provide further evidence of different water sources to the thaw lakes and may indicate that melting of modern permafrost in part formed since the 1950s is occurring in these systems. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.