Application of the SHETRAN basin‐scale,landslide sediment yield model to the Llobregat basin,Spanish Pyrenees

The first application of the SHETRAN basin‐scale, landslide erosion and sediment yield model is carried out for a major landsliding event in the upper 505 km² of the Llobregat basin, in the eastern Spanish Pyrenees, in November 1982. The model simulates the spatial distribution of shallow landslides and their sediment yield. Acknowledging uncertainty in the model parameter evaluation, the aim of the application was not to reproduce the observed occurrence of landslides as accurately as possible with one simulation, but to bracket the observed pattern with several simulations representing uncertainty in the key input conditions. Bounds on the landslide simulations were thus determined as a function of uncertainty in the vegetation root cohesion (used in the model factor of safety calculations). The resulting upper bound considerably overestimates the observed pattern (17 000 landslides compared with an observation of around 700), but it reproduces several of the principal clusters in the observed pattern. The lower bound contains around 500 landslides. The sediment yield estimates (2670–14 630 t km^?2) are comparable to measurements elsewhere in the Pyrenees for extreme events. The results demonstrate an ability to simulate the basin‐scale landslide response to a rainfall event and the resulting sediment yield. They also highlight the need for further research in setting the uncertainty bounds and in avoiding large overestimates of landslide occurrence arising in part from a current inability to model small‐scale controls for a basin of the given size. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

利用双因素实验和单藻培养方法研究温度和盐度对短节硬毛藻(Chaetomorpha brachygona Harvey)生长发育的影响

提要 利用双因素实验和单藻培养等方法,对采自广东南澳岛的短节硬毛藻Chaetomorpha brachygona Harvey进行了研究。在不同温度和盐度条件下,对该硬毛藻的生长、活力以及形态进行了观察与测定。结果表明,温度和盐度对短节硬毛藻的生长均有一定影响,当温度为20℃时,藻体培养第3、6和12天活力分别为0.70—0.75Y、0.60—0.70Y和0.55—0.65Y,培养12天时藻体有生殖细胞形成,此温度有利于藻体维持活力;温度为25—30℃时,培养第3天时会大量形成生殖细胞;在盐度10、20、40和50时,藻体的生长与温度相关,即30℃>25℃>20℃;在盐度20—30时,藻体长度最大达4.55 cm;在盐度10—30时,更有利于藻体生长,整体趋势为20>30>10>40>50。因此,实验条件下,温度25—30℃、盐度10—30更利于短节硬毛藻的生长和形成生殖细胞。本实验表明,短节硬毛藻为暖水、广盐性种,有可能在我国南方海区大量生长并扩散,具有引发绿潮的潜力。     

Application of a Delay-difference model for the stock assessment of southern Atlantic albacore (Thunnus alalunga)

Delay-difference models are intermediate between simple surplus-production models and complicated age-structured models. Such intermediate models are more efficient and require less data than age-structured models. In this study, a delay-difference model was applied to fit catch and catch per unit effort(CPUE) data(1975–2011) of the southern Atlantic albacore(Thunnus alalunga) stock. The proposed delay-difference model captures annual fluctuations in predicted CPUE data better than Fox model. In a Monte Carlo simulation, white noises(CVs) were superimposed on the observed CPUE data at four levels. Relative estimate error was then calculated to compare the estimated results with the true values of parameters α and β in Ricker stock-recruitment model and the catchability coefficient q. α is more sensitive to CV than β and q. We also calculated an 80% percentile confidence interval of the maximum sustainable yield(MSY, 21756 t to 23408 t; median 22490 t) with the delay-difference model. The yield of the southern Atlantic albacore stock in 2011 was 24122 t, and the estimated ratios of catch against MSY for the past seven years were approximately 1.0. We suggest that care should be taken to protect the albacore fishery in the southern Atlantic Ocean. The proposed delay-difference model provides a good fit to the data of southern Atlantic albacore stock and may be a useful choice for the assessment of regional albacore stock.     

安徽省冬小麦水分盈亏特征及其对产量的影响

利用安徽省1971—2010年的气象资料和冬小麦产量资料,采用水分盈亏指数分析了安徽省冬小麦全生育期和关键期（孕穗至乳熟期）水分盈亏的时空变化特征,以及旱涝对产量的影响。结果表明：冬小麦全生育期和关键期水分盈亏指数基本呈纬向分布,合肥以北水分亏缺明显,江淮南部及其以南地区水分供应基本充足,越往南水分盈余程度越大,总体来看缺水程度关键期大于全生育期;近40年冬小麦水分盈亏指数的时间变化趋势不明显,但年际波动大,旱涝灾害风险增加。干旱主要发生在沿淮淮北地区,涝渍在江淮及其以南地区发生频率较高,典型旱涝年平均减产率分别为4.2%和12.4%;造成冬小麦减产10%的中度旱灾风险北部大于南部,中度涝灾风险南部大于北部。南部涝渍风险和造成的产量损失明显大于北部的干旱,水分偏多的南部地区要尽量减少冬小麦的种植。     

深层水漏斗区开采量组成变化特征与机制

为阐明强烈开采条件下华北平原深层水的开采水量来源及组成问题,以德州地区深层水漏斗分布区为重点研究区,通过基于大量钻孔资料对含水层组及其粘性土夹层或透镜体的分析和野外地下水采样、动态监测及地面沉降测量资料等分析,采用分层、分区计算方法对漏斗中心至外围的各分区弹性释水量、粘性土压密释水量、侧向流入和越流补给量进行均衡计算。结果表明:在强烈开采条件下,深层水开采量中弹性释水量和压密释水量所占比率不是常量,随着深层水位下降的幅度和深度增大、超采释压持续时间愈长、开采层中粘性土夹层或透镜体愈多,则区内弹性释水和压密释水的强度及累积地面沉降量愈大;愈靠近漏斗中心,弹性和压密释水强度愈大,相同降深下平均单位降深的地面沉降量愈小。在深层水开采量中粘性土压密释水占35.5%~61.9%,与地面沉降密切相关。     

综合物探技术在煤系上覆薄硬岩矿区的应用初探——以山西潞安集团司马矿区为例

山西潞安集团司马矿区东高西低,西部延至长治盆地,矿区水系发育。主采3#煤层埋藏较浅,层位稳定。新生界不整合于下伏基岩之上,厚度变化较大,属典型的薄硬岩煤矿区。为准确提供矿区煤炭开采上限的地质依据,采用了综合勘探技术,其中利用三维地震勘探技术追踪新生界底面反射波及第四系"天窗"位置,利用直流电法与瞬变电磁法提供电性分层,并对其解释结果进行相互印证。勘探实例表明,三维地震勘探、电法勘探与钻探的综合运用不仅可解决薄硬岩煤矿区新生界厚度、含水层富水性及第四系缺失等问题,还可提供新生界含水层与基岩含水层之间的水力联系、制约因素等资料。     

Geomorphological analysis of the morphometric characteristics that determine the volume of sediment yield of Wadi Al-Arja,South Jordan

This study addresses the morphometric variables that determine the sediment yield in Wadi Al-Arja through the analysis of the impact of different morphometric characteristics along the course of the valley on its sediment yield, as well as the analysis of spatial and formal dimensions and morphologies of the basin and its relationship to the sediment yield. The study also addresses the size of variation in the volume of sediment yield of the river tributaries that make up the water network of the valley under the differences of its morphometric and hydrological characteristics. The study found several results, most notably: The classification of Wadi Al-Arja basin according to the hypsometric integral value (72.1%) within an uneven topography, which increases the force of the erosive activity and the size of the sediment yield if the basin was exposed to moist climatic periods. The study also showed the presence of convergence in the intra-spaces between the river tributaries in the water network. This increases the volume of water flows when these tributaries meet with each other and thus increasing their erosive ability and sediment yield.The study also showed the presence of marked variation in the sediment yield of the river tributaries depending on the differences in its morphometric characteristics. The results of the step-wise regression analysis confirmed the importance of the morphometric and hydrological variables, and plant coverage in interpreting the variation in the size of the sediment yield of the river tributaries of different stream order in Wadi Al-Arja basin, where these variables interpreted 43% of the total variation, with statistical significance less than 0.05.     

高海拔隧道涌突水预测分析——以四川小卡子隧道为例

小卡子隧道是连接九龙县城和石棉县城的一条便利通道,它是连接S215和S211的绿色保障,九龙和石棉之间是海拔高度4 000 m以上,九龙县城周边为高原宽谷丘陵地区,地势起伏较大。九龙至周边沿线不良地质和特殊褶皱构造发育,其中冰雪害几乎每年冬春都发生,且影响线路较长,其它地质灾害也时常暴发,致使交通事故频繁发生,成为制约九龙县发展,因而急需要对线路进行改造,拟建连接九龙县至石棉县小卡子隧道即为公路改建工程。     

渗流井取水方式在大会坪水源地的应用

渗流井是一种结构较为复杂且有别于水平井及其他井孔的取水建筑物,利用河床砂砾石层的净化作用,将河水转化为地下水以获得水资源,该工程在干旱半干旱地区作用尤为显著。通过引入“等效渗透系数”,建立研究区的地下水流三维数值模型,分别模拟计算了平水期和枯水期渗流井的出水量,最终确定大会坪研究区的建议开采量为30600 m3/d。     

不同压实度荆门弱膨胀土的一维膨胀-压缩特性

为探讨压实膨胀土的体变行为,以荆门弱膨胀土为研究对象,借助高压固结仪对6种制样压实度下的膨胀土试样进行了一维无荷载膨胀和含一次卸载-再加载循环的压缩试验。基于膨胀试验结果,构建了膨胀时程方程,通过参数分析,明确了方程参数的物理意义,并建议了膨胀时程曲线3阶段的划分方法。基于压缩试验结果,探讨了固结屈服应力、压缩指数Cc、回弹指数Cs、膨胀力与制样压实度、土体结构性、膨胀势、孔隙比的相关关系。试验结果及其分析表明,膨胀土体积变化是膨胀势与外部荷载、湿度变化的耦合作用结果,且具有强烈的水-力路径依赖性。