Paraglacial response of steep,sediment‐mantled slopes to post‐‘Little Ice Age’ glacier recession in the central Swiss Alps

This research assesses the morphological consequences of recent (post‐‘Little Ice Age’) paraglacial reworking of valley‐side sediment mantles in the European Alps. It aims to identify the extent and conditioning factors of slope adjustment at sites in the Swiss Alps, model the temporal pattern, and assess the rates of sediment reworking involved. Gully systems have cut into steep, high‐level lateral moraines, and debris cones have accumulated downslope. Debris flow is the dominant agent of sediment transfer. Factors controlling the extent of this activity include moraine slope gradient, relief and moisture availability. Gullies appear to have reached their maximum dimensions within ca. 50 yr of deglaciation, after which gully relief is reduced by removal of inter‐gully slopes and gully infilling (within 80–140 yr). On the most recently deglaciated terrain, minimum erosion rates average ca. 95 mm yr^?1 since gully initiation, greatly exceeding ‘normal’ erosion rates in other environments. Mean annual accumulation of a single debris cone since ice retreat was calculated to be ca. 30 mm yr^?1. Implications of these findings are applied to patterns of paraglacial sediment‐mantled slope adjustment, conceptualising paraglacial landscape response in terms of a sediment release exhaustion model, and paraglacial landform succession. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A terrestrial record of Last Interglacial climate preserved by voluminous debris avalanche inundation in Taranaki,New Zealand

At Airedale Reef, western North Island, New Zealand, a ca. 4 m thick volcanogenic debris avalanche deposit has facilitated the preservation of an enveloping sequence of peats with interbedded andesitic tephras spanning marine isotope (MIS) 5. The sequence closely overlies a wave‐cut terrace correlated to MIS 5e and, in turn, is overlain by andic beds with tephra interbeds including the Rotoehu and Kawakawa tephras deposited during early MIS 3 and mid‐MIS 2, respectively. Pollen analysis of the organic sequence shows a coherent pattern of fluctuating climate for the Last Interglacial–Last Glacial transition that corresponds with marine isotope stratigraphy and supports the contention that orbital variations were a primary factor in late Quaternary southern mid‐latitude climate change. A five‐stage subdivision of MIS 5 is clearly recognised, with marine isotope substage (MISS) 5b drier than MISS 5d, and the cooling transition from 5a to MIS 4 also may have been comparatively dry and characterised by natural fire, perhaps associated with volcanism. Several other examples of volcanic impact on vegetation and the landscape are evident. The Airedale Reef sequence exhibits strong similarities with fragmentary MIS 5 pollen records preserved elsewhere in New Zealand and enables the proxy record of southern mid‐latitude climatic variability during the Last Interglacial–Glacial cycle to be extended. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

汶川县绵虒镇板子沟“8·20”大型泥石流堵河特征及危害性预测

汶川地震后,板子沟曾发生过多次大规模泥石流,尤其是2019年“8·20”泥石流对沟口的道路桥梁以及村寨造成了严重的破坏,将主河道向对岸严重挤压,今后仍存在较大堵河的风险。文章在野外调查以及对泥石流基本特征和形成条件综合分析的基础上,分析了堵河特征,计算了不同频率下泥石流的堵河参数,并预测了各频率下溃决洪水对绵虒镇可能产生的影响。计算结果表明,频率为2％、5％和10％的泥石流造成岷江堵塞的可能性较小,假设发生堵河事件,绵虒镇也不会受到溃坝洪水的危害。频率为1％的泥石流很可能造成主河堵塞。体积约57.38×104 m3的泥石流物质可以到达岷江,形成高度约为51.61 m的堰塞坝。在主河洪水的作用下,堰塞坝发生溃坝,溃坝洪水的峰值流量为5 935.49 m3/s,到达绵虒镇后降至2 312.25 m3/s。由于相应的洪水深度（4.00 m）大于防护堤的高度（3.50 m）,因此溃坝洪水很可能会对绵虒镇防护堤附近民房造成破坏。为今后大型泥石流堵河特征的分析,以及溃决洪水对下游城镇可能造成的影响提供了参考。     

狭陡型泥石流成灾特征与防治对策研究——以阿坝州金川县刘家沟泥石流为例

刘家沟位于四川省阿坝州金川县,是一条狭陡型高频泥石流沟,每年雨季,降雨激发泥石流灾害链。本文在野外调查和实地勘测的基础上,分析认为,受汶川MS8.0地震扰动,刘家沟形成流通区单位面积上松散固体物质达98.11×10⁴ m³,在409.8‰的平均纵坡降下,泥石流活动频率明显增强,泥石流沿程放大效应明显,最终形成了降雨+径流侵蚀-滑坡-堰塞体-堰塞体溃决-增大的泥石流-堵河形成堰塞湖-卡撒沟中、下游损害的灾害链。提出采用格宾石笼进行固坡护床,结合拦挡坝拦粗排细的作用,根据保护对象设置防护堤,优化排导槽与主河交汇条件的综合治理措施,可为小流域高频狭陡型泥石流灾害的治理提供参考。     

北京山区泥石流自动监测预警系统的建立与应用

自动监测预警系统,是目前山区突发地质灾害预警预报有效的预警模式。本系统是在详细调查的基础上,以调查数据为底层分析数据库,以.net为语言运行环境,经所建立的预警模型分析计算后,产生预警预报产品,进行预警发布。     

阿勒泰市强降水衍生泥石流灾害分析

调查分析阿勒泰市区泥石流灾情、引发的气象因素以及有利的环流形势.结果表明:阿勒泰市泥石流灾害以市区东北部发生频率高,为重灾区,阿勒泰市泥石流主要发生在6-8月的强雷雨时段;中小尺度强雷雨是引发阿勒泰市泥石流直接的动力因素,降水超过15 mm并伴有雷暴可作为阿勒泰市泥石流气象预警指标;阿勒泰市夏季中小尺度系统引发的短时强降水有两种天气尺度环流背景.     

阿坝州南部两次致灾泥石流天气过程对比分析

利用NCEP再分析资料、常规高空及地面常规资料、自动站资料,对2010年8月13日和2011年7月3日阿坝州东南部特大暴雨形成机制以及产生泥石流情况进行了探讨.结果表明：两次强降水天气过程发生在不同的环流背景下,但与副高位置、高原槽、地面冷空气等因素密切相关.两次过程强降水落区都为高空辐散、低空辐合区,且该地区存在强的上升运动,水汽辐合明显.从湿位涡分析得出,强降水区域一般会出现在对流层中下部MPV1负值中心和低层MPV2正值中心的范围内.     

空间碎片观测精度分析

文章分别用内符合精度和外符合精度两种精度指标对云南天文台SBG望远镜的观测数据进行判定，确定了其观测精度。得到高轨空间碎片的观测精度约为2″，和低轨空间碎片的观测精度约为7″，并对观测误差的来源作了一些初步的分析。     

Analysis of the Space Debris Impacts Risk on the International Space Station

Öpik's analytical expressions relate in a simple way the semimajor axis, eccentricity and inclination of the projectile orbit to the magnitude and direction of the relative velocity vector at impact on a given target on circular orbit. These interesting quantities, along with the impact probability of any given projectile, can be all represented on a suitable projection giving a comprehensive picture of the impact risk on the selected target. By means of this theory a complete analysis of the impact risk on the International Space Station (ISS) is performed. It is found that the large majority of the debris population is on orbits such that a correlation exists between their impact velocity on the ISS and the angle between the velocity vector of the impactor and that of the ISS. The impactor population also is separated in terms of nature of the projectiles, with most of the low-medium velocity ones being particles related to solid rocket motor slag condensates. On the other hand, the highest velocity projectiles are composed mainly by fragments of past in-orbit explosions.The flux of projectiles on the ISS has been calculated for the planned operative lifetime of the Station, by assuming a realistic scenario of the future debris environment evolution and the actual planned altitude profile for the ISS mission. There is a factor 2-3 variation of the flux due to the changing ISS altitude. The most dangerous part of the mission appears to be the central one, when the ISS will orbit at about 450 km above the Earth.     

水流冲刷沉积物生成泥石流的条件及运动规律的试验研究

在铺满卵石的陡槽上释放不同浓度、不同流量的泥浆或清水，观测卵石在泥浆流作用下的运动，研究泥石流的形成条件和运动规律。试验结果表明，当K（=rqJ）大于某临界值K_c时就会发生泥石流，但这个临界值K_c随波相泥浆浓度而变。泥石流龙头由大卵石组成，在不断摩擦和碰撞中翻滚着推进，消耗大量动能，同时控制着后续流不离散。后续流液相流速显著大于龙头，不断把能量输送到龙头，维持龙头运动。大卵石在运动中受到液相流的推动力较大，而受到的碰撞阻力较小，比龙头运动的快。因而大卵石逐渐集中于龙头。