基于GM(1,1)优化模型的岩石边坡变形预报

岩石边坡系统是一典型灰色系统，其变形发展过程可以用灰色预测模型完成。尽管传统GM（1，1）模型预测有很多成功的实例，但是也存在一些预测偏差过大的情况，必须对其进行优化。逐步迭代法GM（1，1）模型不仅收敛速度快，而且与原始数据库序列的凹凸性保护一致。利用自编的计算程序对马步坎边坡预测测点G1沉降和开裂进行预测分析，结果表明逐步迭代法GM（1，1）优化模型计算精度较传统GM（1，1）模型和背景构造法GM（1，1）优化模型高，较好地反映了岩石边坡的变形趋势。     

福建福安下白石特大桥海上岩土勘察方法

下白石特大桥是同江至三亚国道主干线福鼎至宁德高速公路建设中的一项控制性工程 ,是交通部指定的三阶段设计工程 ,桥长 110 5 m,主跨采用 2× 2 6 0 m预应力混凝土连续钢构。桥位位于白马河入海口处 ,工程地质、水文地质条件复杂 ,通过采用地表大面积的综合地质调查、海上地震映像物探以及海上钻探、原位测试、岩土测试等一系列行之有效的岩土勘察方法 ,确保了岩土工程勘察质量 ,其结果切实可行 ,为后期施工单位提供科学依据。     

FLAC数值模拟软件及其在地学中的应用

FLAC是以拉格朗日差分法为基础的一种数值模拟应用软件,主要用于岩土力学工程。近年地质学家将其应用到地质构造和块体运动学、动力学研究中,以证实或证伪地球学家们提出的相关地球动力学模型。本文初步介绍了FLAC应用软件的基本原理、使用方法以及它在国内外地质学上的几个应用实例。     

铅锌矿床Rb-Sr定年研究综

本文在总结Rb-Sr等时线定年的基本前提和矿床Rb-Sr等时线定年存在的问题的基础上,综述了铅锌矿床流体包裹体和闪锌矿Rb-Sr等时线定年的研究进展,同时对该定年方法存在的问题进行了简要评述。综合分析表明,Rb-Sr等时线定年(尤其是闪锌矿Rb-Sr等时线定年)为铅锌矿床较理想的直接定年方法,但该定年方法还存在许多理论和技术问题,有待深入研究;铅锌矿床Rb-Sr等时线定年应以深入细致的地质、地球化学研究为基础,定年过程中必须严慎对待样品采集、样品挑选、流体包裹体溶液提取和质谱分析等各个环节。     

遗传算法在边坡数值计算中的应用

改进了进化方向的遗传算法与有限元数值法，结合并研制了相应的软件。应用该软件对多类型岩土边坡进行弹性模量、内聚力、内摩擦角等参数反演分析，显示误差很小，收敛速度也很快，这说明改进进化方向遗传算法这种新型的优化算法在多类型岩土参数优化估计中具有独特的优势。     

软土地基沉降计算的误差分析

对引起路堤荷载下软土地基沉降从竖应力、固结沉降、瞬时沉降和后期沉降的计算四个方面,常见计算方法误差的诸多因素,从受力、沉降原理上进行了详细分析并提出一些建议,以使沉降更为接近实际.     

有限弹性变形地壳中的地震波

地壳由半无限大的基岩上一层厚度为H^-的表土层组成，入射地震波为垂直的SH波，产生水平地面运动。当浅源大地震发生时，在极震区以外行波传播产生地面运动将使地壳介质有非线性的有限弹性变形。用小参数摄动法使非线性控制方程为线性化的小参数各阶控制方程，得出头两阶线性控制方程的解析解。     

The use of modern statistical theories in the assessment of earthquake hazard, with application to quiet regions of eastern North America

It is generally accepted that both deterministic and statistical approaches are useful for the characterization of earthquake hazard. Although the most reliable estimates of seismic hazard can only be based on an improved understanding of the earthquake mechanism, efficient utilization of the appropriate methods provided by recent statistical theories is also important in seismic risk analysis. This is especially true in regions where the connection between seismicity and geologic structure is tenuous at best. We are particularly interested in developing better statistical treatments of data for regions with little known seismic activity. To this end, we have applied three statistical methods to the historical record of seismicity in relatively quiet regions of eastern North America. These are: (1) the threshold method for tail inference, a new theory for modeling earthquakes with sizes above a given threshold, (2) the ‘bootstrap’ technique in which the characteristics of an unknown population are simulated by replacing the true population by an estimated one, and (3) a technique to estimate the number of earthquakes below a given size, in order to compensate for the under-reporting of small earthquakes in most catalogs. A combination of these techniques has been used to estimate the probabilities of future large earthquakes for the regions studied. Because of limitations imposed by existing catalogs, the size estimate used has been maximum intensity.     

Bedrock structure in Adapazari, Turkey—a possible cause of severe damage by the 1999 Kociaeli earthquake

The 1999 Kocaeli earthquake brought serious damage to downtown of Adapazari. To study why strong motions were generated at the town, a bedrock structure was investigated on the basis of Bouguer gravity anomaly, and SPAC and H/V analyses of microseisms. It was revealed that, the basin consists of three narrow depressions of bedrock with very steep edges, extending in E–W or NE–SW directions along the North Anatolia faults, and the depth to bedrock reaches 1000 m or more. Downtown of Adapazari is located 1–2 km apart from the basin-edge. It is considered that, the specific configuration of bedrock amplifies ground motions at the downtown area by focusing of seismic waves and/or interference between incident S-waves and surface-waves secondarily generated at the basin-edge. Studying 3D bedrock structure is an urgent issue for microzoning an urban area in a sedimentary basin.     

Efficient methods for solving water flow in variably saturated soils under prescribed flux infiltration

The non-linear solvers in numerical solutions of water flow in variably saturated soils are prone to convergence difficulties. Many aspects can give rise to such difficulties and in this paper we address the gravity term and the prescribed-flux boundary in the Picard iteration. The problem of the gravity term in the Picard iteration is iteration-to-iteration oscillation as the gravity term is treated, by analogy with the time-step advance technique, ‘explicitly’ in the iteration. The proposed method for the gravity term is an improvement of the ‘implicit’ approach of Zhang and Ewen [Water Resour. Res. 36 (2000) 2777] by extending it to heterogeneous soil and approximating the inter-nodal hydraulic conductivity in the diffusive term and the gravity term with the same scheme. The prescribed-flux boundary in traditional methods also gives rise to iteration-to-iteration oscillation because there is no feedback to the flux in the solution at the new iteration. To reduce such oscillation, a new method is proposed to provide such a feedback to the flux. Comparison with traditional Picard and Newton iteration methods for a wide range of problems show that a combination of these two proposed methods greatly improves the stability and consequently the computational efficiency, making the use of small time step and/or under-relaxation solely for convergence unnecessary.