Specific Relationship between the Surface Air Temperature and the Area of the Terra Nova Bay Polynya,Antarctica

Antarctic polynyas play an important role in regional atmosphere?ice?ocean interactions and are considered to help generate the global deep ocean conveyer belt.Polynyas therefore have a potential impact on the Earth’s climate in terms of the production of sea ice and high-salinity shelf water.In this study,we investigated the relationship between the area of the Terra Nova Bay polynya and the air temperature as well as the eastward and northward wind based on the ERA5 and ERAInterim reanalysis datasets and observations from automatic weather stations during the polar night.We examined the correlation between each factor and the polynya area under different temperature conditions.Previous studies have focused more on the effect of winds on the polynya,but the relationship between air temperature and the polynya area has not been fully investigated.Our study shows,eliminating the influence of winds,lower air temperature has a stronger positive correlation with the polynya area.The results show that the relationship between the polynya area and air temperature is more likely to be interactively influenced.As temperature drops,the relationship of the polynya area with air temperature becomes closer with increasing correlation coefficients.In the low temperature conditions,the correlation coefficients of the polynya area with air temperature are above 0.5,larger than that with the wind speed.     

云南风能资源及其开发利用研究进展

介绍了云南风能资源及其开发利用的研究现状和研究成果。分析了云南风能资源评价历程、分布特点和风电开发建设情况。总结了云南有关风电场选址、风能资源评估、风电功率预测预报以及山区风电场和风电机组设计的研究成果。剖析了云南风能资源及其开发利用中存在的问题并提出今后的发展方向。     

Observational Zonal Mean Flow Anomalies: Vacillation or Poleward Propagation?

North-south displacements and meridional vacillations of the eddy-driven jet are widely accepted as the dominant cause of variability of the observational zonal-mean zonal wind anomalies(denoted [u]’).In this study,a new idea regarding the primary variability of the observational [u]’ in the middle latitude troposphere is presented.It is hypothesized that there are two different classes of primary variability of the observational [u]’:the poleward propagation of the [u]’(abbreviated as PP) and meridional vacillations.To validate this hypothesis,one-point correlation maps of [u]’ at 200-hPa during the boreal cold season(November-April) of every year from 1957-2002 are used as a criterion.Twelve PP years,in which the PP events are dominant in the variability of [u]’,and 15 no_PP years,in which the PP events are recessive and the meridional vacillations are dominant in the variability of [u]’,are examined.The results show that the variabilities of [u]’ are different in the chosen PP and no_PP years.In the PP years,the PP events dominate the variability of [u]’;however,the meridional vacillations are prevalent in the no_PP years.     

鄱阳湖区风电场风电功率预报研究

风力发电作为一种无污染可再生的能源,已逐渐成为许多国家能源战略可持续发展的重要组成部分。风电场风能预报是风力发电开发中的关键技术问题。为研究鄱阳湖区风力发电预报技术,采用中尺度模式WRF和微尺度模块CALMET对鄱阳湖区长岭风电场进行了200 m水平分辨率风能预报,并根据长岭机组理论功率曲线表和实测数据拟合出理论和实际发电机组功率曲线模型及平均有功功率与发电量模型。根据WRF+CALMET模式预报风速及建立的发电机组功率曲线模型和平均有功功率与发电量模型,预报了长岭风电场发电量。结果表明:长岭风电场23座风机逐小时风速预报值与观测值相关系数为0.42~0.61,均方根误差为2.59~3.68,相对误差为-13.7%~17.4%;对整个风场,预报风速与观测风速的相关系数为0.55,均方根误差为2.8,相对误差为-4.79%。实测发电量值高于预报值,平均偏大39.7 kW,相对误差为-12.6%,预报值与实测值相关性较好,相关系数达到0.52。总体来说,根据中尺度数值模式预报的风速结合风功率、发电量模型预测出的发电量与实测值较为接近,但各月差异性较大。     

An Empirical Tropical Instability Wave-induced Wind Stress Model in the Equatorial Pacific and its Incorporation into the Ocean Model

Abstract

Satellite observations revealed that there is a close relationship between perturbations of sea surface temperature (SST) and wind stress (τ) induced by tropical instability waves (TIWs; SST_TIW and τ _TIW). Using the empirical relationship observed between TIW-induced wind stress divergence (curl) and downwind (crosswind) SST gradients, this study establishes a TIW-induced wind stress field perturbation model τ _TIW?=?F(SST). This empirical model solves τ _TIW from the TIW-induced wind stress divergence and curl, which are estimated from the downwind and crosswind SST gradients. This empirical τ _TIW?=?F(SST) model can be incorporated into the ocean model to take into account the effect of τ _TIW. By comparing two experiments with and without the τ _TIW effect, this study demonstrates that τ _TIW has a substantial effect on the equatorial Pacific heat budget and induces the long-term mean SST to exhibit a 0.2°C difference, which is consistent with previous studies.     

低层偏南气流对一次暴雨过程的动力作用分析和数值模拟

利用常规观测资料和NCEP再分析资料,对2010年7月22-25日四川盆地西部出现的一次暴雨过程进行了诊断分析.结果表明:暴雨出现在对流层低层南海至四川盆地一直维持偏南气流的环流背景下,暴雨与这支偏南气流的风速演变密切相关,降雨强度随南风气流的增强而增强,南风气流增强所形成的风速辐合及正涡度平流是暴雨的主要动力触发因子,暴雨与低层辐合和正涡度平流区域有很好的对应关系.WRF数值模拟试验进一步表明:850 hPa层3h风速演变对中尺度对流系统的发展具有很好的指示意义,在3h风速增大区域的下风方,未来3h对流云团将迅速发展;盆地西部形成的气流辐合与其西侧的高原地形密切相关.     

不同环境风场条件下两次华南西部低涡暴雨个例对比分析

利用常规观测资料、FY 2C卫星TBB资料、自动站降水量以及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对2009年7月3-4日(简称“09.7”)和2008年6月1 6 1 7日(简称“08.6”)两次发生在华南西部的低涡暴雨过程进行对比分析,结果表明:(1)低涡是两次暴雨过程的直接影响系统,“09.7”过程伴随西南低空急流,“08.6”过程无低空急流配合,中尺度辐合可能在两次强降水过程中有着直接的触发作用.(2)“09.7”过程的低层辐合强度及上升运动强度明显强于“08.6”过程.“09.7”过程较“08.6”过程,暖平流强度明显偏强,等温度平流线也较密集.(3)相比“08.6”过程,“09.7”过程水汽净流量更大,这是西南低空急流将充足水汽往暴雨区输送的结果.(4)“09.7”和“08.6”两次暴雨过程均与高空西风急流南侧的垂直环流圈密切相关,“09.7”过程由于低空有急流存在,上升运动维持时间长,降水强度大,历时长,“08.6”过程广西境内低空无急流,上升运动维持时间短,降水强度偏弱,历时短.     

“09.11.10”石家庄特大暴雪中尺度风场分析

利用常规观测、雷达资料以及四维变分方法反演的风场资料,对2009年11月10-12日石家庄特大暴雪过程的形势场和中尺度风场结构进行了详细分析.从影响系统来看,此次特大暴雪过程分为两个阶段:回流降雪和西来槽降雪.回流降雪是特大暴雪的主要时段,此阶段西部山区降雪明显大于东部平原;而西来槽降雪阶段全区降雪比较均匀.由雷达反射率因子和径向速度可见:10日降雪具有对流性质,而且回波不断地自西部山区向石家庄市区移动,产生“列车效应”,造成市区及西部降雪强度较大;11-12日回波强度弱,降雪强度也较弱.分析雷达四维变分反演风场得到如下结论:(1)反演风场能够准确展现东风影响的时间和高度、西来槽影响的始末,对预报员定性外推降雪的强度起到非常好的参考作用.(2)低层水平反演风场上,存在一个比较窄的东风带,回波沿东风带自西向东移动,石家庄市区处于北到东北风的“回流墙”附近,东移回波在此堆积,移速减慢,影响时间较长;同时,市区附近存在风向性和风速性辐合,致使回波在石家庄附近加强或维持.(3)反演风场垂直剖面图上,东风回流降雪阶段,低层东风区上空存在一个“反气旋”,强回波位于“反气旋”所包围的范围.     

确定风廓线雷达功率谱噪声功率方法

风廓线雷达以测风为主要目的设计,没有充分考虑强度的定量测量。如果能够实现强度定量测量将大大扩展风廓线雷达的应用范围。首要的扩展应用就是可以获取雨滴谱分布、解决降水定量测量准确性问题。若实现强度定量测量,需要解决的一个关键技术问题是如何由其功率谱数据准确计算噪声功率。该文根据风廓线雷达功率谱估计方法、依据噪声频域统计特性,提出了一种计算风廓线雷达功率谱噪声功率的方法,并利用风廓线雷达实测功率谱数据进行检验。检验结果表明:即便在有降水或存在地物时,该方法仍可以准确、快速分辨出噪声功率谱, 且客观有效。     

台风“麦莎”的强度对台风前部飑线发展过程影响的研究

对2005年8月5日16时(UTC,下同)至6日00时发生的一次台风前部飑线过程进行了数值模拟,分析表明:台前飑线在母体台风和副高之间的湿区生成。台风为这次台前飑线过程提供了有利的条件,包括强的低空急流输送充沛的水汽,强的不稳定环境产生大的对流有效位能以及强的地表辐合,使得初始的离散的对流单体组织发展形成台前飑线。成熟时期的台前飑线虽然比中纬度和热带飑线的变压强度小,但是具有更强的低层暖湿空气入流,中层的入流范围也更加宽广。敏感性试验结果表明:台风强度越强,其台前飑线的回波强度越强,移动速度更快,生命史也更长。强台风使得低空垂直风切变更大,有利于台前飑线的生成和发展,在台前飑线发展成熟后,低空垂直风切变强度减小,不利于台前飑线的维持,加之低空水汽输送的减少,使其逐渐趋向衰亡。