Assessment of disaster resilience capacity of hillslope communities with high risk for geological hazards

This study presents a novel preparedness assessment method for assessing hazard mitigation and environmental planning of hillslope communities. A professional questionnaire was utilized to weight each indicator. Communities in Hsinchu, Taichung and Nantou counties with debris flow hazards were taken as study samples. Debris flow risk and landslide susceptibility for each community were determined using Geographic Information System (GIS) technology and logistic regression analysis. Thus, a novel risk assessment method for evaluating disaster resilience capacity of hillslope communities was established. This method was then applied to assess casualties caused by Typhoon Herb in 1996 and Typhoon Mindulle in 2004. Additionally, the analytical results generated by this assessment method were discussed with the aim of developing references for implementation of risk analysis, increasing the effectiveness of disaster mitigation, and reducing future loss of life and property.     

El Nino年和La Nina年的非线性临界层与副高的形成、维持和振荡

采用欧洲中心１９８２年１２月、１９８３年４月、１９８４年１０月和１９８５年４月的月平均纬向风场实际观测资料,作为非线性临界层模式的基本气流进行数值积分,得到：用１９８２年１２月和１９８３年４月的基流模拟出的副高强、范围大、数目少,维持２￣３个单体,且向西移,东西振荡周期１－２个月。用１９８４年１０月和１９８５年４月的基流模拟出的副高弱、范围小,成带状分布,数目多达４个单体,副高合并、分裂得较快,亦     

振荡流作用下波状底床上流场特性的实验研究

本文利用U型振荡水槽和粒子图像测速仪(PIV)对三种固定波状底床上的流场进行了测量,得到一系列不同振幅条件下的瞬时速度场和涡量场.通过分析不同时段涡强度以及涡轨迹,讨论了底床形状对其附近流场的影响.实验结果分析表明,底床形状决定着整个涡量场特征及涡轨迹,从而决定着泥沙的净输移.这些结果对于探讨浅海区沙波、沙纹和沙垄等波状底床上泥沙输移的力学机制是很有意义的.     

四川龙门山南段东缘泥石流

当地断裂众多，岩体破碎，崩塌滑坡遍布，加之是强震带和川西大暴雨中心区，相对高度３００—３５００ｍ，泥石流形成条件极为充分．泥石流沟汇水面积小，沟床比降陡，主沟长度短．绵竹汉旺后山泥石流综合治理后，可成为一个示例．     

Post-solidification cooling and the age of Io's lava flows

The modeling of thermal emission from active lava flows must account for the cooling of the lava after solidification. Models of lava cooling applied to data collected by the Galileo spacecraft have, until now, not taken this into consideration. This is a flaw as lava flows on Io are thought to be relatively thin with a range in thickness from ∼1 to 13 m. Once a flow is completely solidified (a rapid process on a geological time scale), the surface cools faster than the surface of a partially molten flow. Cooling via the base of the lava flow is also important and accelerates the solidification of the flow compared to the rate for the ‘semi-infinite’ approximation (which is only valid for very deep lava bodies). We introduce a new model which incorporates the solidification and basal cooling features. This model gives a superior reproduction of the cooling of the 1997 Pillan lava flows on Io observed by the Galileo spacecraft. We also use the new model to determine what observations are necessary to constrain lava emplacement style at Loki Patera. Flows exhibit different cooling profiles from that expected from a lava lake. We model cooling with a finite-element code and make quantitative predictions for the behavior of lava flows and other lava bodies that can be tested against observations both on Io and Earth. For example, a 10-m-thick ultramafic flow, like those emplaced at Pillan Patera in 1997, solidifies in ∼450 days (at which point the surface temperature has cooled to ∼280 K) and takes another 390 days to cool to 249 K. Observations over a sufficient period of time reveal divergent cooling trends for different lava bodies [examples: lava flows and lava lakes have different cooling trends after the flow has solidified (flows cool faster)]. Thin flows solidify and cool faster than flows of greater thickness. The model can therefore be used as a diagnostic tool for constraining possible emplacement mechanisms and compositions of bodies of lava in remote-sensing data.     

单多普勒雷达反演涡旋风场方法分析

由于单雷达在探测台风临近、登陆时仍具有双部或多部雷达难以具备的优势,目前利用单多普勒雷达反演涡旋风场的方法并不多见,本文对能够反演涡旋风场的3种方法NIVAP(自然坐标系的积分VAP方法)、EVAPTC(反演热带气旋的EVAP方法)、GBVTD(地基速度追踪法)进行了比较,分别从每种方法的假设条件和数学方法以及结果精度来比较3种方法对涡旋风场的适用性。利用中尺度气旋Rankine模式模拟了纯涡旋性气旋、只有环境风场时、环境风场和辐合(辐散)同时存在时的径向速度场及风场,比较了各种情况下的反演风场和模拟风场的相似系数。在对模拟风场比较之后,选取了2014年"威马逊"台风登陆前1h、登陆时及登陆后1h的3个实测雷达资料,对比分析了3种方法反演实测资料的风场特征,3种方法中EVAPTC方法最好,GBVTD方法在应用中有一定的限制,NIVAP方法较差。     

张力腿平台绕流数值模拟分析

在一定来流条件下,张力腿平台(tension leg platform,简称TLP)的立柱后缘出现周期性的交替旋涡脱落,致使立柱受到垂直于来流方向的升力和平行于来流方向的阻力作用,导致TLP产生大幅度往复运动,显著增加平台结构和系泊系统的负载。目前,关于单柱、多柱结构绕流问题的研究较多,但对于TLP绕流特性的研究较少,机理尚存不明确的地方。为研究TLP的绕流力变化情况和流场特征,开展了数值模拟分析。利用计算流体动力学数值模拟软件,基于雷诺平均(RANS)法和分离涡模拟(DES)法对TLP绕流场进行仿真分析,揭示了TLP的绕流特性。结果表明,在3种来流角度和多个折合速度V_r下,TLP绕流的流体力系数存在明显差异,升力系数时域曲线呈现脉动性。TLP的上、下游立柱间存在明显的相互作用,影响了旋涡的形成与发展。TLP的旋涡脱落大多集中在平台固有频率附近,且在V_r=7,来流角度为0°时,升力系数频谱峰值最大,旋涡脱落集中。     

若干特殊地表风蚀的风洞实验研究

经风洞模拟实验,本文对四种特殊地表在净风和挟沙风情况下的风蚀特性,进行了定量的研究。揭示了原始地表结构受人为破坏后,其抗风蚀能力急剧降低的特点。探讨了风成沙粒配、戈壁风蚀平衡与风蚀有关的几个问题。     

渤海悬浮颗粒物的三维输运模式 I.模式

为了长时间,大范围研究渤海中悬浮物的输运规律,研究应用并改造了备国汉堡大学的粒子追踪悬浮物输运的三维模式,模式中考虑了风、气压等气象要素以外海传入的潮波作用下的三维正压海流对悬浮颗粒物的输运．同时考虑了悬浮颗粒物的学降及再悬浮机制和底质中的细颗粒物的运动,将风浪的作用引入了悬浮物输运的计算,数值模式应用的粒五追踪方法,能较好地反映悬浮物浓度的迅速变化。     

Heat flow and thermal modeling of the Yinggehai Basin, South China Sea

Geothermal gradients are estimated to vary from 31 to 43 °C/km in the Yinggehai Basin based on 99 temperature data sets compiled from oil well data. Thirty-seven thermal conductivity measurements on core samples were made and the effects of porosity and water saturation were corrected. Thermal conductivities of mudstone and sandstone range from 1.2 to 2.7 W/m K, with a mean of 2.0±0.5 W/m K after approximate correction. Heat flow at six sites in the Yinggehai Basin range from 69 to 86 mW/m², with a mean value of 79±7 mW/m². Thick sediments and high sedimentation rates resulted in a considerable radiogenic contribution, but also depressed the heat flow. Measurements indicate the radiogenic heat production in the sediment is 1.28 μW/m³, which contributes 20% to the surface heat flow. After subtracting radiogenic heat contribution of the sediment, and sedimentation correction, the average basal heat flow from basement is about 86 mW/m².Three stages of extension are recognized in the subsidence history, and a kinematic model is used to study the thermal evolution of the basin since the Cenozoic era. Model results show that the peak value of basal heat flow was getting higher and higher through the Cenozoic. The maximum basal heat flow increased from 65 mW/m² in the first stage to 75 mW/m² in the second stage, and then 90 mW/m² in the third stage. The present temperature field of the lithosphere of the Yinggehai Basin, which is still transient, is the result of the multistage extension, but was primarily associated with the Pliocene extension.