青藏高原中东部水热条件与NDVI的空间分布格局

青藏高原受大气环流和地势格局的共同作用,水热条件及植被空间分布呈现独特的三维地带性特征。但是青藏高原范围广、地势起伏大,水热条件及植被空间分布具有明显区域差异。本文利用青藏高原中东部100个气象站1982²000年的降水、气温资料以及同期NO-AA AVHRR植被指数产品（NDVI）,分析水热条件及植被的空间分布特征。首先,设置经向、纬向海拔渐变样带,考察海拔对水热条件及NDVI空间分布的影响;然后,按500米海拔间隔进行站点分组,分析约束了海拔高差后的经纬位置对水热条件及NDVI空间分布的影响。研究表明:在青藏高原中东部由于海拔高差大,热量条件分布首先受海拔递减规律控制,其次才表现出因太阳辐射差异的纬度地带性;而降水分布则主要受水汽通道位置和方向的影响,北上水汽和东部偏南走向山脉是研究区降水经向特征的主要成因;指示植被状况的年均NDVI,则受水热组合的控制,其分布格局是二者的叠加与综合。     

渤海与环渤海地区年降水量的统计分析

本文以渤海海域及环渤海地区分水岭内为研究区域,利用环渤海地区分水岭内92个气象站点自1971年至2000年30年的降水量资料,基于ARC/INFO地理信息系统支持下的泰森多边形法,对研究区域内的平均年降水量进行了统计分析。结论如下:环渤海地区分水岭以内区域的平均年降水量占整个环渤海地区2000年降水量的63.88%;渤海海域海水直接利用量占该海域平均年降水量的8.82%,其中辽东湾的海水利用量占该湾平均年降水量的3.09%,渤海湾为15.86%,莱州湾为17.38%;辽东湾2002年的海冰资源量占该湾平均年降水量的6.08%。在渤海海域水量平衡的关系研究中,本研究是初步的,基础的。划出分水岭内的研究区域进行平均年降水量的统计较对整个环渤海地区进行统计更具精确性。     

地下水补给与开采量对降水变化响应特征:以京津以南河北平原为例

通过对京津以南河北平原年降水量、地下水补给量和农业开采量三者动态规律及其互动关系研究表明, 年降水量减增, 同期地下水补给量与开采量呈互逆变化规律, 即降水量减小, 补给量变少, 开采量增大; 年降水量增大, 补给量较多, 开采量减小.在连续枯(丰) 水年份, 当年降水量减少(增加) 10mm时, 则地下水系统水量减少7.08 (增加7.06) mm, 水位下降(上升) 5.2~8.7cm; 在10~320mm变幅内, 当年降水量减少(增加) 10%时, 则地下水系统水量减少7.98 (增加7.67) %.气候旱化过程中降水变化对引起补给量减少和开采量增加的幅度, 大于气候增雨过程中降水变化对补给量增大和开采量减少的影响程度.因此, 需要重视连续枯水年份降水变化对地下水系统影响的应对举措, 这对于提高我国北方区域地下水资源供给安全保障具有重大意义.      

Preliminary results of 4-D water vapor tomography in the troposphere using GPS

Slant-path water vapor amounts (SWV) from a station to all the GPS (Global Positioning System) satellites in view can be estimated by using a ground-based GPS receiver. In this paper, a tomographic method was utilized to retrieve the local horizontal and vertical structure of water vapor over a local GPS receiver network using SWV amounts as observables in the tomography. The method of obtaining SWV using ground-based GPS is described first, and then the theory of tomography using GPS is presented. A water vapor tomography experiment was made using a small GPS network in the Beijing region. The tomographic results were analyzed in two ways: (1) a pure GPS method, i.e., only using GPS observables as input to the tomography; (2) combining GPS observables with vertical constraints or a priori information, which come from average radiosonde measurements over three days. It is shown that the vertical structure of water vapor is well resolved with a priori information. Comparisons of profiles between radiosondes and GPS show that the RMS error of the tomography is about 1–2mm. It is demonstrated that the tomography can monitor the evolution of tropospheric water vapor in space and time. The vertical resolution of the tomography is tested with layer thicknesses of 600 m, 800 m and 1000 m. Comparisons with radiosondes show that the result from a resolution of 800m is slightly better than results from the other two resolutions in the experiment. Water vapor amounts recreated from the tomography field agree well with precipitable water vapor (PWV) calculated using GPS delays. Hourly tomographic results are also shown using the resolution of 800 m. Water vapor characteristics under the background of heavy rainfall development are analyzed using these tomographic results. The water vapor spatio-temporal structures derived from the GPS network show a great potential in the investigation of weather disasters.     

Soil moisture retrieval from satellite images and its application to heavy rainfall simulation in eastern China

The soil water index (SWI) from satellite remote sensing and the observational soil moisture from agricultural meteorological stations in eastern China are used to retrieve soil moisture. The analysis of correlation coefficient (CORR), root-mean-square-error (RMSE) and bias (BIAS) shows that the retrieved soil moisture is convincible and close to the observation. The method can overcome the difficulties in soil moisture observation on a large scale and the retrieved soil moisture may reflect the distribution of the real soil moisture objectively. The retrieved soil moisture is used as an initial scheme to replace initial conditions of soil moisture (NCEP) in the model MM5V3 to simulate the heavy rainfall in 1998. Three heavy rainfall processes during 13–14 June, 18–22 June, and 21–26 July 1998 in the Yangtze River valley are analyzed. The first two processes show that the intensity and location of simulated precipitation from SWI are better than those from NCEP and closer to the observed values. The simulated heavy rainfall for 21–26 July shows that the update of soil moisture initial conditions can improve the model’s performance. The relationship between soil moisture and rainfall may explain that the stronger rainfall intensity for SWI in the Yangtze River valley is the result of the greater simulated soil moisture from SWI prior to the heavy rainfall date than that from NCEP, and leads to the decline of temperature in the corresponding area in the heavy rainfall days. Detailed analysis of the heavy rainfall on 13–14 June shows that both land-atmosphere interactions and atmospheric circulation were responsible for the heavy rainfall, and it shows how the SWI simulation improves the simulation. The development of mesoscale systems plays an important role in the simulation regarding the change of initial soil moisture for SWI.     

弹性波阻抗在时移地震中的应用分析

常规声波波阻抗由于缺乏横波的信息,使得它对于流体的变化很不敏感,而弹性波阻抗反演,除了与纵波速度,密度有关之外,还与横波速度、入射角度有关,由于考虑了AVO(Amplitude Variation with Offset)效应,使得对流体和岩性的预测能力增强.本文将弹性波阻抗反演应用于时移地震中,采用AVA(Amplitude Variation with Angle)约束稀疏脉冲反演来进行弹性波阻抗反演,得到纵横波阻抗等弹性参数,通过交会图分析,将弹性参数转换为油藏参数,如预测含水饱和度的变化,通过本方法可增强对储层流体的预测,提高储层管理能力.     

南水北调西线一期工程坝址处径流量计算与分析

南水北调西线一期工程调水区所涉及的6条河流(泥曲、达曲、色曲、杜柯河、玛柯河、阿柯河)坝址处均无实测的径流资料,开展该地区的水文研究属于无资料水文预报问题(PUBs)。利用年径流量的变差系数Cv值、年际变化绝对比率P和不均匀系数α对坝址下游的朱倭、朱巴、足木足、绰斯甲4站的实测年径流的年际变化进行分析,计算结果为各坝址径流年际变差系数Cv为0.15~0.26,表明调水区的多年径流量变化不大;年际变化绝对比率P为1.88~3.00,其中朱倭站的径流年际变化最大,最大径流量是最小径流量的3倍,绰斯甲站的最大径流量是最小径流量的1.88倍,4站的径流变化都不剧烈;径流不均匀系数α为0.58~0.75,表明该流域径流量的年际变化较为均匀;利用水文比拟法对坝址处的径流进行了计算,并根据R/S分析法对坝址处径流序列的未来趋势进行了初步分析,各坝址处的年径流序列的赫斯特系数均大于0.5,说明各径流序列的未来趋势具有持续性,即未来趋势与历史呈正相关,6个调水坝址中只有扎洛和克柯处的径流未来是减少的,其余坝址处径流都是增加的,这样西线一期工程调水区的河流有利于水资源的可持续开发利用。     

雄安至北京大兴国际机场快线起步区地下段结构抗浮设防水位取值研究

抗浮设防水位直接影响到地下结构的安全与建设费用,在地下结构建设中至关重要,因此,科学合理地确定地下结构的抗浮设防水位具有巨大的社会意义和经济价值。本文以“雄安新区至北京大大兴国际机场快线地下工程段”为研究对象,系统分析了研究区水文地质条件以及地下水位年内年际动态变化规律,利用数值模拟法和类比预测法确定了地下结构抗浮设防水位标高建议值。结果表明,该场地区域浅层地下水水位埋深一般为5.0～20.0m,地下水水位标高一般为–10.0～1.0m。近五年场地浅层地下水水位标高一般为–5～–10 m,埋深一般为3.0～15.0 m,地下水位逐年升高,回升速率约1.0 m/a。地下结构抗浮设防水位标高取值建议取使用期抗浮设防水位采用数值模拟法预测结果。该成果服务了“雄安新区至北京大兴国际机场快线(R1线)”项目场地抗浮设计,为雄安新区重大工程建设项目的抗浮安全设计提供了示范。     

水文地球化学信息对岩溶地下水流动系统特征的指示意义--以山西神头泉域为例

神头泉域岩溶水的水化学特征显示,岩溶水样的总溶解固体质量浓度、Sr2 质量浓度及宏量组分质量浓度均由泉域北、西、南部向排泄区增大,与岩溶水的流动方向一致.根据c(Sr)/c(Ca)与总溶解固体质量浓度可将神头泉群划分为3个泉组,对应于3个不同的岩溶水子系统,岩溶水样的聚类分析结果与这一结论相符合.研究表明水文地球化学信息对地下水系统的水动力特征分析具有指示意义.     

中国地震次生地质灾害危险性评价

地震次生地质灾害主要指地震引起的崩塌、滑坡、塌陷、地裂缝、砂土液化。震级大于5级、烈度超过Ⅵ度的地震可能引发不同程度的地质灾害,震级和烈度越高,次生地质灾害越严重。本文根据中国历史地震次生地质灾害活动程度及发生条件,以地(市、区、盟)为单元,进行了危险性评价:高度和中度危险区主要分布在中国中部的陕甘宁川渝滇藏地区,形成一个大致NE向高危险带,其余大部分地区为轻度危险区。