天山北坡牧草生长季节土壤水分变化特征探讨

通过对牧业气象试验站多年土壤水分观测资料的整理分析，认为夏季土壤水分比较丰富，其随深度分布呈降水型；春季土壤水分含量最少，秋季次之，其随深度分布呈蒸发、降水型。旬土壤水分含量在牧草生长期呈两峰三谷型。     

闽南地区汛期短历时降水气候特征

通过对厦门，安溪，九仙同山峰尤溪等４站２５年５－６月逐时降水资料的统计分析，初步揭示了汛期闽南地区不同形环境下的短历时降水的气候和条件气候的分布特征，得到若干对短时了和服务有参考价值的结论。     

洛阳市2003年夏季多雨环流特征及汛期降水预报

分析了2003年洛阳夏季多雨环流特征，探讨了汛期降水偏多的预报因子，并用副高特征量因子建立了汛期降水预测模型。     

湖南汛期降水异常的时空分布特征研究

利用湖南19个测站23年(1959～2001年)4～9月的降水量资料，用EOF、REOF、小波分析对湖南汛期降水的特征场分布、分区特征、周期性和突变性等时空分布特征进行了诊断研究。研究结果表明：EOF分析得到的前三个典型场可以很好的反映湖南汛期降水空间分布的异常结构，即具有整体一致的空间结构，南北相反的空间结构，中部和周围地区相反变化的空间结构。旋转后的前6个空间模态可以较好地代表湖南汛期降水的6个异常敏感区：湘北、湘中、湘南、湘东南、湘西、湘东北。利用小波分析方法研究湖南汛期降水的周期性及其突变性发现，湖南汛期降水存在着明显的3年、7年和23年的特征时间尺度和周期性振荡；并且在今后相当长的一段时间内，湖南汛期的降水将逐年减少，并将转入干旱时期。     

ENSO事件与鲁西北夏季降水的关系

应用近百年ENSO事件的研究成果和ENSO事件影响年的资料，统计分析近50年来ENSO事件与鲁西北夏季降水关系，为短期气候预测和汛期气象服务提供参考依据。     

水库汛期限制水位控制理论与观念的更新探讨

传统的水库汛限水位的控制,只利用了洪水的统计信息,使水库在汛期要时刻预防设计与校核洪水事件的发生,致使一些水库在汛期不敢蓄水而汛后又无水可蓄,造成洪水资源的浪费。提出水库汛限水位动态控制的新理念及其综合推理模式,适应当前预报技术的发展水平,考虑降雨径流洪水预报与一定时间内的短期降雨预报,排除不可能发生的洪水事件,预报可能发生的洪水,实施水库汛限水位的动态控制。但预报不可避免地存在误差,当小概率预报误差事件发生时,仍可采取弥补措施以确保大坝的防洪安全。     

Mesoscale numerical simulation study of warm fog dissipation by salt particles seeding

Based on the dynamic framework of WRF and Morrison 2-moment explicit cloud scheme, a salt-seeding scheme was developed and used to simulate the dissipation of a warm fog event during 6–7 November 2009 in the Beijing and Tianjin area. The seeding effect and its physical mechanism were studied. The results indicate that when seeding fog with salt particles sized 80 μm and at a quantity of 6 gm~(-2) at the fog top, the seeding effect near the ground surface layer is negative in the beginning period, and then a positive seeding effect begins to appear at 18 min, with the best effect appearing at 21 min after seeding operation. The positive effect can last about 35 min. The microphysical mechanism of the warm fog dissipation is because of the evaporation due to the water vapor condensation on the salt particles and coalescence with salt particles.The process of fog water coalescence with salt particles contributed mostly to this warm fog dissipation. Furthermore, two series of sensitivity experiments were performed to study the seeding effect under different seeding amounts and salt particles sizes. The results show that seeding fog with salt particles sized of 80 μm can have the best seeding effect, and the seeding effect is negative when the salt particle size is less than 10 μm. For salt particles sized 80 μm, the best seeding effect, with corresponding visibility of 380 m, can be achieved when the seeding amount is 30 g m~(-2).     

Anomalous Western Pacific Subtropical High during Late Summer in Weak La Nia Years: Contrast between 1981 and 2013

Both 1981 and 2013 were weak La Niña years with a similar sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the tropical Pacific, yet the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) during August exhibited an opposite anomaly in the two years. A comparison indicates that, in the absence of a strong SST anomaly in the tropics, the cold advection from Eurasian high latitudes and the convection of the western Pacific warm pool play important roles in influencing the strength and position of the WPSH in August. In August 1981, the spatial pattern of 500 hPa geopotential height was characterized by a meridional circulation with a strong ridge in the Ural Mountains and a deep trough in Siberia, which provided favorable conditions for cold air invading into the lower latitudes. Accordingly, the geopotential height to the north of the WPSH was reduced by the cold advection anomaly from high latitudes, resulting in an eastward retreat of the WPSH. Moreover, an anomalous cyclonic circulation in the subtropical western Pacific, excited by enhanced warm pool convection, also contributed to the eastward retreat of the WPSH. By contrast, the influence from high latitudes was relatively weak in August 2013 due to a zonal circulation pattern over Eurasia, and the anomalous anticyclonic circulation induced by suppressed warm pool convection also facilitated the westward extension of the WPSH. Therefore, the combined effects of the high latitude and tropical circulations may contribute a persistent anomaly of the WPSH in late summer, despite the tropical SST anomaly being weak.     

长江中下游地区暖区暴雨特征分析

利用2007到2013年5-9月间常规和非常规资料以及6 h一次的NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料,将长江中下游地区暖区暴雨按天气形势划分为冷锋前暖区暴雨、暖切变暖区暴雨以及副热带高压边缘暖区暴雨三种类型。统计表明暖区暴雨一般发生在距离切变线(锋线)100~300 km的暖区内。主要结论包括:(1)冷锋型降水强度偏弱且分布均匀,集中在5、6月;暖切变型发生次数最多且强度大,主要发生在6、7月长江中下游地区的偏南部;副热带高压边缘型发生次数最少但强度较大,发生在7、8月。暖区暴雨的发生次数及强度在大别山、皖南山区较为集中。(2)暖区暴雨中短时强降水贡献大。(3)冷锋背景下的暖区暴雨一般产生在锋前低压槽中,暴雨落区与高低空急流耦合有紧密联系;暖切变型以低层暖切变线为主要天气背景,地面常有弱静止锋,暖区对流活动与中尺度急流结构、地形强迫等因素存在较高的相关性;副热带高压边缘暖区暴雨与局地的水汽积累和对流不稳定条件的发展有密切关系。据此建立三类暖区暴雨的概念模型。     

秋季南黄海浮游动物分布及其影响因素

基于2007年秋季在南黄海（32°20'~37°00'N;124°E以西）进行的浮游动物及环境因子大面调查;分析了秋季南黄海浮游动物种类组成、分布特征及其影响因素;主要结果如下:共鉴定浮游动物113种（不包括25种浮游幼体）;中华哲水蚤（Calanus sinicus）、强壮滨箭虫（Aidanosagitta crassa）、磷虾幼体（Euphausia larvae）和小齿海樽（Doliolum denticulatum）是秋季优势种;浮游动物丰度为（156.37±12.04）ind/m3;生物量为（172.57±10.41）mg/m3;与历史调查数据相比;本航次浮游动物丰度和生物量相对处于较高水平;磷虾幼体分布趋势与中华假磷虾（Psudeuphausia sinica）一致;说明秋季是中华假磷虾种群的一个重要的补充时期;小齿海樽在南黄海的大量出现系自身种群补充的结果;精致真刺水蚤（Euchaeta concinna）和肥胖软箭虫（Flaccisagitta enflata）主要分布在深水区;在近岸海区很少出现。中华哲水蚤、强壮滨箭虫丰度高值区倾向分布于海洋锋附近;进一步佐证了海洋锋对浮游动物的积聚作用。