隐伏断层灾害的研究与地震保险

简要介绍了近年来一些国家地震灾害造成的经济损失占这些国家国内生产总值的比例；主要介绍了多震地区开展地震断层探测研究的概况以断层活动为基础的地震保险试验的内容及研究进展。     

The Llullaillaco volcano, northwest Argentina: construction by Pleistocene volcanism and destruction by sector collapse

Llullaillaco is one of a chain of Quaternary stratovolcanoes that defines the present Andean Central Volcanic Zone (CVZ), and marks the border between Chile and Argentina/Bolivia. The current edifice is constructed from a series of thick dacitic lava flows, forming the second tallest active volcano in the world (6739 m). K–Ar and new biotite laser ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar step-heating dates indicate that the volcano was constructed during the Pleistocene (≤1.5 Ma), with a youngest date of 0.048±0.012 Ma being recorded for a fresh dacite flow that descends the southern flank. Additional ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar measurements for andesitic and dacitic lava flows from the surrounding volcanic terrain yield dates of between 11.94±0.13 Ma and 5.48±0.07 Ma, corresponding to an extended period of Miocene volcanism which defines much of the landscape in this region. Major- and trace-element compositions of lavas from Llullaillaco are typical of Miocene–Pleistocene volcanic rocks from the western margin of the CVZ, and are related to relatively shallow-dipping subduction of the Nazca plate beneath northern Chile and Argentina.Oversteepening of the edifice by stacking of thick, viscous, dacitic lava flows resulted in collapse of its southeastern flank to form a large volcanic debris avalanche. Biotite ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating of lava blocks from the avalanche deposit indicate that collapse occurred at or after 0.15 Ma, and may have been triggered by extrusion of a dacitic flow similar to the one dated at 0.048±0.012 Ma. The avalanche deposits are exceptionally well preserved due to the arid climate, and prominent levées, longitudinal ridges, and megablocks up to 20-m diameter are observed.The avalanche descended 2.8 km vertically, and bifurcated around an older volcano, Cerro Rosado, before debouching onto the salt flats of Salina de Llullaillaco. The north and south limbs of the avalanche traveled 25 and 23 km, respectively, and together cover an area of approximately 165 km². Estimates of deposit volume are hampered by a lack of thickness information except at the edges, but it is likely to be between 1 and 2 km³. Equivalent coefficients of friction of 0.11 and 0.12, and excess travel distances of 20.5 and 18.5 km, are calculated for the north and south limbs, respectively. The avalanche ascended 400 m where it broke against the western flank of Cerro Rosado, and a minimum flow velocity of 90 m s⁻¹ can be calculated at this point; lower velocities of 45 m s⁻¹ are calculated where distal toes ascend 200 m slopes.It is suggested that the remaining precipitous edifice has a high probability for further avalanche collapse in the event of renewed volcanism.     

Magmatic gas scrubbing: implications for volcano monitoring

Despite the abundance of SO_2(g) in magmatic gases, precursory increases in magmatic SO_2(g) are not always observed prior to volcanic eruption, probably because many terrestrial volcanoes contain abundant groundwater or surface water that scrubs magmatic gases until a dry pathway to the atmosphere is established. To better understand scrubbing and its implications for volcano monitoring, we model thermochemically the reaction of magmatic gases with water. First, we inject a 915°C magmatic gas from Merapi volcano into 25°C air-saturated water (ASW) over a wide range of gas/water mass ratios from 0.0002 to 100 and at a total pressure of 0.1 MPa. Then we model closed-system cooling of the magmatic gas, magmatic gas-ASW mixing at 5.0 MPa, runs with varied temperature and composition of the ASW, a case with a wide range of magmatic–gas compositions, and a reaction of a magmatic gas–ASW mixture with rock. The modeling predicts gas and water compositions, and, in one case, alteration assemblages for a wide range of scrubbing conditions; these results can be compared directly with samples from degassing volcanoes. The modeling suggests that CO_2(g) is the main species to monitor when scrubbing exists; another candidate is H₂S_(g), but it can be affected by reactions with aqueous ferrous iron. In contrast, scrubbing by water will prevent significant SO_2(g) and most HCl_(g) emissions until dry pathways are established, except for moderate HCl_(g) degassing from pH<0.5 hydrothermal waters. Furthermore, it appears that scrubbing will prevent much, if any, SO_2(g) degassing from long-resident boiling hydrothermal systems. Several processes can also decrease or increase H_2(g) emissions during scrubbing making H_2(g) a poor choice to detect changes in magma degassing.We applied the model results to interpret field observations and emission rate data from four eruptions: (1) Crater Peak on Mount Spurr (1992) where, except for a short post-eruptive period, scrubbing appears to have drastically diminished pre-, inter-, and post-eruptive SO_2(g) emissions, but had much less impact on CO_2(g) emissions. (2) Mount St. Helens where scrubbing of SO_2(g) was important prior to and three weeks after the 18 May 1980 eruption. Scrubbing was also active during a period of unrest in the summer of 1998. (3) Mount Pinatubo where early drying out prevented SO_2(g) scrubbing before the climactic 15 June 1991 eruption. (4) The ongoing eruption at Popocatépetl in an arid region of Mexico where there is little evidence of scrubbing.In most eruptive cycles, the impact of scrubbing will be greater during pre- and post-eruptive periods than during the main eruptive and intense passive degassing stages. Therefore, we recommend monitoring the following gases: CO_2(g) and H₂S_(g) in precursory stages; CO_2(g), H₂S_(g), SO_2(g), HCl_(g), and HF_(g) in eruptive and intense passive degassing stages; and CO_2(g) and H₂S_(g) again in the declining stages. CO_2(g) is clearly the main candidate for early emission rate monitoring, although significant early increases in the intensity and geographic distribution of H₂S_(g) emissions should be taken as an important sign of volcanic unrest and a potential precursor. Owing to the difficulty of extracting SO_2(g) from hydrothermal waters, the emergence of >100 t/d (tons per day) of SO_2(g) in addition to CO_2(g) and H₂S_(g) should be taken as a criterion of magma intrusion. Finally, the modeling suggests that the interpretation of gas-ratio data requires a case-by-case evaluation since ratio changes can often be produced by several mechanisms; nevertheless, several gas ratios may provide useful indices for monitoring the drying out of gas pathways.     

Anthropogenic organic matter in the Great Marsh of the Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore and its implications

Cores from the Great Marsh area of the Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore were examined in order to document variations in concentration, type and size of anthropogenic organic matter (A_nOM—coal, coke, etc.) and discuss their relationship to the concentration of such trace elements as Pb, Zn, and Mn in the near-surface sediment section. The results indicate that the first appearance of A_nOM corresponds to the onset of industrialization in the area. There is also a general relationship between the occurrence of A_nOM and Zn, Pb, and Mn. Trace metals were likely transported from the industrial sites to the area of their deposition as sulfur-bearing coatings on small anthropogenic particles. After deposition, these sulfur-bearing compounds reacted with organic matter within the marsh. As a result of bacterial reduction, the pyrite was produced, as suggested by a close relationship between the pyrite and A_nOM. Distance from the industrial complex upwind as well as local hydrologic conditions are among the major factors controlling distribution of A_nOM and trace elements. At the same distance from the source, types and sizes of A_nOM are influenced by the duration and frequency of flooding.     

最大熵谱法在华北地震活动幕式结构分析中的应用

应用定性和定量相结合的方法对华北地区第三、第四活动期Ｍ３≥６地震进行幕式结构分析，发现两个活动期的时间进程、应变释放的图象方面比较相似，由此推断第四活动期应变能大释放阶段已过、目前处于调整阶段。估计第四活动期可能持续到２０２０年前后。     

华北地区强震前的森下指数异常

文中计算了华北地区最近２０ａ来的次Ｍｓ≥５．８地震前的森下指数，结果发现，在正常情况下，森下指数Ｉｓ变化平稳，而到震前０．５～２ａ突然出现几倍于正常水平的上升变化，作者还将森下指数由空间域延伸到时间域，也取得了较好的效果，时间窗的长度，震级下限及网格尺度选取是影响森下指数结果的３个重要因素，只有三者组合得当才能获得好的效果。     

交城断裂中段的活动特征及其地震危险性

通过野外调查和对地质资料、地震活动性资料的综合分析，把交城断裂中段进一步划分为南亚段和北亚段。指出断裂南亚段存在发生６．８级地震的危险性     

秦皇岛市断裂断层泥的SEM特征与断裂活动性

在野外地质调查的基础上，通过研究秦皇岛市Ｆ１、Ｆ２、Ｆ３断裂断层泥中石英颗粒表面的ＳＥＭ特征，认为Ｆ１断裂最末一次活动时间在早更新世至中更新世；Ｆ２断裂最末一次活动时间在晚更新世中晚期；Ｆ３断裂最末一次活动时间在晚更新世末或全新世初。     

五大连池火山构造地震空间分布及其构造含义

在对五大连池地震台１９８３年以来观测到的五大连池火山区的地震记录复核的基础上，测定了火山构造地震的空间分布状态。研究结果表明该地区地震活动均为壳内地震。受火山构造环境影响，地震活动存在着外围边缘强，震源深度分布深；内部弱，震源深度分布浅的差异。火山区内部地震深度分布优势在５ｋｍ—８ｋｍ，有３个地震分布密集区，震中分布呈明显的沿火山构造断层成带分布特性。在地震条带交汇处，震源深度起伏变化大，是火山构造活动强烈部位     

长白山天池火山密码破译势在必行

长白山天池火山是中新世以来多次喷发并造成严重灾害的火山。通过十几年的火山地质及火山地震监测研究认为长白山天池火山近期不会马上喷发，但它是一座具有潜在喷发危险性的活动火山，并提出建立长白山火山观测站的重要意义，讨论了天地火山密码的破译需要调动各方面有利因素和有利条件。