1995年度中国大陆及边邻MS≥7.0地震活动与华北地区的试验预报纪实之三

如实记述了１９９５年度中国大陆及边邻ＭＳ≥７．０地震活动的时、空演变与华北（φＮ３０°～φＮ４２°，λＥ１０５°～λＥ１２５°）地震活动等有关的试验预报的实况。对过去的预报办法提出了一些改进意见。     

日地水文学与灾害预测

研究地球水文变化的日地物理成因和规律的日地水文学（Solar-TerrestrialHydrology），用于水、旱灾害预测多次获得证实.本文从日地水文物理基础、长江淮河22年周期性大洪水、黄河大洪水和太阳活动关系、太阳活动双重衰减期北方大旱、17世纪日地水文异常变化、太阳活动对暴雨洪水中短期影响、台湾海峡两侧大暴雨洪水落区转移、全球最大洪水日地水文研究以及学科发展和应用前景九个方面，对中国近70多年来的主要成果加以回顾和总结.基础科学、高科技和应用紧密结合，促成对国民经济发展直接相关的新学科，是当代科学进步的一个显著标志，这里又是一个例证．     

岩浆活动对油气藏形成条件的影响

结合众多实例，总结了国内外含油地中岩浆活动对油气藏形成的影响。一方面，岩浆活动所携带的高热流可以提高古地温，加速生油岩的演化，亦将使与岩浆岩毗邻的生油岩达到高成熟或过成熟，     

The characteristics of Quaternary activity of faults in the sea area near the Yangtze River mouth

Introduction As far as the frequency and magnitude are concerned, the earthquakes in the sea area to the east of Shanghai are far more strong than in land area with the largest one in the sea area near the Yangtze River mouth being MS=436, while in land, only MS=434 occurred on Sept. 1, 1624. As a moderately strong earthquake active area, the sea area near the Yangtze River mouth, may cause a potential risk to Shanghai. In 1971 and 1996, earthquakes with MS=5~6 occurred in this area. Geo…     

区域-时间-长度算法及其在华北中强地震中短期前兆特征研究中的应用

引入并改进了区域-时间-长度算法（region-time-length algorithm），较之原来的定义更加强调了地震破裂尺度函数对VRTL的贡献，同时保证了震中距函数、时间函数及破裂尺度函数对VRTL影响的权系数相等．华北5级以上地震的回顾性预测研究结果表明，改进的RTL算法所得到的异常大多具有短期或中短期特征. 震前VRTL变化型态可分为两类:Ⅰ类具有相对完整的变化形态，大多呈现从0开始的上升——转折下降或下降——转折上升形态；Ⅱ类变化形态不完整，一般从0开始急剧上升或下降，无明显转折，主震发生在VRTL极值附近．VRTL上升表征地震活动水平相对于背景变化率的增高，意味着地震活动增强；VRTL下降则意味着地震活动相对于背景变化率的降低，在一定程度上表征了地震活动的平静．据此给出由RTL算法进行中、短期异常识别并粗略估计发震时间的方法. 该方法Ⅰ,Ⅱ类异常3个月内发震的R值评分分别为0.6及0.3左右， 6个月内的R评分分别为0.7及0.4左右．对特征时间跨度、特征距离、震级下限等对VRTL的影响, 以及其它一些实际应用中的重要问题进行了初步讨论．      

预警地震在地震预测中的意义

对新疆1970-2002年地震资料以不同范围、不同震级进行全时空扫描。结果表明，新疆台网监测能力较好地区绝大多数6级以上地震前地震活动关联图较为清晰。提出了预警地震的概念，认为预警地震在短临预报方面有一定的作用。     

青海德令哈巴音郭勒河断裂带的新活动特征

在青海德令哈巴音郭勒河北侧山前冲洪积扇上新发现了一条长约60km的逆断裂带,属于本区NNW-NWW向的柴达木盆地北缘活动断裂系内的一条次级挤压构造。断裂在地貌上表现为明显的挤压逆冲断层陡坎,晚更新世晚期以来的平均垂直滑动速率为0.41±0.27mm/a。探槽剖面确定了三次古地震事件,其年代分别为距今约32.7±1.45ka、15.54±1.32ka和3.2±0.33ka。     

川西北倒三角形断块东部区域强震带形成机制与地震活动特征

川西北倒三角形断块东部区域地处青藏高原东部边缘地带,地跨川西北高原及其与四川盆地过渡带的高山峡谷区,属我国著名的南北向地震带的中段,因其特定的大地构造环境和强烈的现代地壳构造运动,导致其在强大的近东西向构造应力场的驱动和平卧“A”字型控震构造体系的控制下,沿两侧边界断裂向东强力楔入,于“构造急剧收口带”之西侧形成了一个近SN向地跨三大构造单元的强震带,强震沿该带有规律的往返迁移和重复发生,且地震活动强弱具有较明显的分形特征。     

K–Ar geochronology of the temporal change of eruptive style in the eastern Izu peninsula, central Japan

Abstract   A recent K–Ar study elucidated that eruptive style in the eastern Izu peninsula changed from polygenetic to monogenetic volcano at 0.3–0.2 Ma. To narrow down the time of change, we determined 10 K–Ar ages on Togasayama Andesite of Amagi volcano, the youngest polygenetic volcano in the area, and Togasayama Monogenetic Volcano, one of the oldest monogenetic volcanoes in the area, which overlies a part of the Togasayama Andesite. Dating results showed that the Togasayama Andesite effused at least from 0.34 to 0.20 Ma, whereas the Togasayama Monogenetic Volcano erupted at 0.26–0.29 Ma, suggesting that the northern part of the Togasayama Andesite effused after the eruption of the Togasayama Monogenetic Volcano. Considering previous data, it is therefore inferred that change of eruptive style in the eastern Izu area occurred during the period 0.29–0.20 Ma, with considerable overlap of both polygenetic and monogenetic volcanism.     

Correlation of seismic activity and fumarole temperature at the Mt. Merapi volcano (Indonesia) in 2000

In this paper we present densely sampled fumarole temperature data, recorded continuously at a high-temperature fumarole of Mt. Merapi volcano (Indonesia). These temperature time series are correlated with continuous records of rainfall and seismic waveform data collected at the Indonesian–German multi-parameter monitoring network. The correlation analysis of fumarole temperature and precipitation data shows a clear influence of tropical rain events on fumarole temperature. In addition, there is some evidence that rainfall may influence seismicity rates, indicating interaction of meteoric water with the volcanic system. Knowledge about such interactions is important, as lava dome instabilities caused by heavy-precipitation events may result in pyroclastic flows. Apart from the strong external influences on fumarole temperature and seismicity rate, which may conceal smaller signals caused by volcanic degassing processes, the analysis of fumarole temperature and seismic data indicates a statistically significant correlation between a certain type of seismic activity and an increase in fumarole temperature. This certain type of seismic activity consists of a seismic cluster of several high-frequency transients and an ultra-long-period signal (<0.002 Hz), which are best observed using a broadband seismometer deployed at a distance of 600 m from the active lava dome. The corresponding change in fumarole temperature starts a few minutes after the ultra-long-period signal and simultaneously with the high-frequency seismic cluster. The change in fumarole temperature, an increase of 5 °C on average, resembles a smoothed step. Fifty-four occurrences of simultaneous high-frequency seismic cluster, ultra-long period signal and increase of fumarole temperature have been identified in the data set from August 2000 to January 2001. The observed signals appear to correspond to degassing processes in the summit region of Mt. Merapi.