Risk assessment for the Yucca Mountain high-level nuclear waste repository site: Estimation of volcanic disruption

In this article, we model the volcanism near the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, U.S.A. by estimating the instantaneous recurrence rate using a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with Weibull intensity and by using a homogeneous Poisson process to predict future eruptions. We then quantify the probability that any single eruption is disruptive in terms of a (prior) probability distribution, since not every eruption would result in disruption of the repository. Bayesian analysis is performed to evaluate the volcanic risk. Based on the Quaternary data, a 90% confidence interval for the instantaneous recurrence rate near the Yucca Mountain site is (1.85×10^–6/yr, 1.26×10^–5/yr). Also, using-these confidence bounds, the corresponding 90% confidence interval for the risk (probability of at least one disruptive eruption) for an isolation time of 10⁴ years is (1.0×10^–3, 6.7×10^–3), if it is assumed that the intensity remains constant during the projected time frame.     

闽西震旦系上统变质火山岩的地球化学特征及其大地构造背景

福建西部震旦系上统变质火山岩属钙碱性系列。ＲＥＥ分布模式均呈向右倾斜的曲线，具Ｅｕ负异常，富集大离子系亲石元素和亏损地幔岩相容元素，（８６）Ｓｒ／（８７）Ｓｒ初始值０．７１０５～０．７１２６，显示陆壳重熔生成的岩浆特点。它们是在浙南－闽西北加里东期挤压碰增造山作用中陆壳重熔岩浆上升喷发产物。     

Implications of εNd—La／Nb,Ba／Nb,Nb／Th Diagrams to Mantle Heterogeneity—Classification of Island—arc Basalts and Decomposition of EMII Component

A group of εNd/Nb,Ba/Nb,Nb/Th diagrams are used to study mantle heterogeneity.Island-arc basalts(IAB) are distributed in a triangle of these diagrams. Three end-member components (the MORB-type depleted mantle, the fluid released from subducted oceanic crust and the sediments from the continental crust) of the source of IAB may be displayed in these diagrams. Two types of IAB are identified .They are of the two-component type (with little continental sediments), such as the basalts from Aletians and New Britain ,and the three-compeonent type, such as those from Sunda, Lesser Antilles and Andes. In addition ,the EMII type mantle-derived rocks may also be divided into two groups. One is exemplified by continental flood basalts and some peridotite xenoliths, similar to IAB, with high La/Nb and Ba/Nb and low Nb/Th ratios, The other includes the Samoa-type oceanic island basalts, with low La/Nb and Ba/Nb and high Nb/Th ratios. The corresponding two sub-components of EMII are EMIIM, which is related to the metasomatism of lithosphere mantle by fluids released from the subducted oceanic crust, and EMIISR, related to the intervention of recycling continental sediments into the convective mantle.     

An assessment of the risk from future eruptions of the Soufriere volcano of St. Vincent,West Indies

The Soufriere volcano is a 1220 m high stratovolcano which occupies the northern part of the island of St. Vincent. It is one of the most active centres of volcanism in the Caribbean and has a record of activity dating back to the Pleistocene. Historic eruptions (since 1718) have caused over 1600 deaths and resulted in damage to property valued in excess of 4.8 million USD. In addition, current development plans for the area point towards increased risk of disastrous consequences from future activity at the volcano.All aspects of risk relevant to the volcano, are discussed, with particular emphasis on the manner in which these are perceived and on the question of acceptable risk. A method is presented for use in risk assessment of volcanic hazard and a number of risk zones are defined for the Soufriere volcano. Numerical estimates of the relative loss expected within each zone are obtained from a consideration of the value of property at risk, its vulnerability to the hazardous volcanic events and the expected spatial impact of volcanic events. Such estimates suggest that the northern-most third of the island is at least ten times more at risk than areas further south. The likelihood of death and destruction is extreme in such high risk areas, while the most feasible method of loss reduction is evacuation before an eruption occurs.Formerly at Department of Earth Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom.     

广东兴宁铁山嶂铁矿床地质特征及成因探讨

本文讨论了矿区夕卡岩和铁矿成因。夕卡岩主要受围岩岩性控制,有固定的层位,属层控夕卡岩。铁矿赋存于有火山岩、含泥镁质灰岩夹层的碎屑岩中,受地层、岩性控制。它是在沉积或火山—沉积作用的基础上,经过改造而成的矿床。矿床具多层性,矿体呈层状、顺层整合产出。它们不论沿走向还是向深部延伸都受一定地层层位和岩性控制。属沉积或火山—沉积热变质改造的层控矿床。     

Thermo-tectonic history of Ryoke Basement in Hohi volcanic zone, northeast Kyushu, Japan: Constraints from fission track thermochronology

Abstract Apatite and zircon fission track ages from Ryoke Belt basement in northeast Kyushu show late Cretaceous, middle to late Eocene, middle Miocene and Quaternary groupings. The basement cooled through 240 ± 25°C, the closure temperature for fission tracks in zircon, mainly during the interval 74-90 Ma as a result of uplift and denudation, the pattern being uniform across northeast Kyushu. In combination with published K-Ar ages and the Turonian-Santonian age of sedimentation in the Onogawa Basin, active suturing along the Median Tectonic Line from 100-80 Ma, at least, is inferred. Ryoke Belt rocks along the northern margin of Hohi volcanic zone (HVZ) cooled rapidly through ∼100°C to less than 50°C during the middle Eocene to Oligocene, associated with 2.5-3.5 km of denudation. The timing of this cooling follows peak heating in the Eocene-Oligocene part (Murotohanto subbelt) of the Shimanto Belt in Muroto Peninsula (Shikoku) inferred previously, and coincides with the 43 Ma change in convergence direction of the Pacific-Eurasian plate and the demise of the Kula-Pacific spreading centre. Ryoke Belt rocks along the southern margin of HVZ have weighted mean apatite fission track ages of 15.3 ± 3.1 Ma. These reset ages are attributed to an increase in geothermal gradient in the middle Miocene combined with rapid denudation and uplift of at least 1.4 km. These ages indicate that heating of the overriding plate associated with the middle Miocene start of subduction of hot Shikoku Basin lithosphere extended into the Ryoke Belt in northeast Kyushu. Pleistocene apatite fission track ages from Ryoke Belt granites at depth in the centre of HVZ are due to modern annealing in a geothermal environment.     

利用区域双差层析成像方法研究川滇南部地壳结构特征

本文联合使用云南、四川和贵州地震台网的85个地震台站在2008年1月—2017年12月期间记录的49130个地震、317366个初至Pg震相绝对到时数据和2674110条高精度的相对到时数据,采用区域双差地震层析成像方法联合反演了川滇南部地壳三维P波速度结构和39621个地震的震源参数,探究了川滇南部中下地壳流和腾冲火山区岩浆囊的分布特征.研究结果表明：（1）川滇南部上地壳的速度异常特征与地表地形密切相关;（2）小江断裂带的中下地壳存在一条绵延近二百多公里的低速异常结构,最南端受到红河断裂带的阻挡而终止于断裂带南段北侧,这可能是川滇南部的一条中下地壳流,低速异常结构在红河断裂带南段转而向南东流动反映了红河断裂带可能为川滇菱形块体的西南边界;（3）红河断裂带各段速度异常存在明显的差异,重定位后的震源分布显示红河断裂带中段和南段虽然不如北段地震活动强烈,但地震震源深度分布较北段深;（4）腾冲火山区西侧和北侧下方10~20 km深度范围内存在的低速异常体推测为通过怒江断裂带形成的岩浆通道从中地壳涌入上地壳的岩浆囊,可能反映了自更新世延续至今的以橄榄玄武岩和安山岩为主要岩性的壳内岩浆活动,持续的岩浆活动为地表热活动提供了主要动力.     

湖南元古宙林家湾组和横路冲组的对比研究

简单介绍了湖南元古宙论水铺群林家湾组正层型剖面和板溪群横路冲组正副层型剖面;对比了二组剖面的地层岩性和成岩时代及层位等特征;论证了沧水铺群林家湾组层位是合乎客观地质实际的;阐述了对湖南益阳沧水铺地区磨拉石一火山建造的划分对比讨论的重要意义。     

北祁连西段香毛山一带早-中寒武世基性火山岩基本特征及其成因

香毛山一带早—中寒武世基性火岩以碱性玄武岩系列为主,具富钠,低钾、镁特点,稀土总量较低,属轻稀土富集型,分布模式为右倾平滑曲线,略具正铕异常;微量元素含量接近洋中脊过渡性玄武岩与板内拉斑玄武岩的丰度,岩浆来自富集的地幔源区;该火山岩系形成于强烈拉张产生的有限微洋盆构造环境,当时洋盆的扩张速率为l～2cm／a,属初始发育阶段。