A statistical approach to evaluating distance metrics and analog assignments for pollen records

The modern analog technique typically uses a distance metric to determine the dissimilarity between fossil and modern biological assemblages. Despite this quantitative approach, interpretation of distance metrics is usually qualitative and rules for selection of analogs tend to be ad hoc. We present a statistical tool, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, which provides a framework for identifying analogs from distance metrics. If modern assemblages are placed into groups (e.g., biomes), this method can (1) evaluate the ability of different distance metrics to distinguish among groups, (2) objectively identify thresholds of the distance metric for determining analogs, and (3) compute a likelihood ratio and a Bayesian probability that a modern group is an analog for an unknown (fossil) assemblage. Applied to a set of 1689 modern pollen assemblages from eastern North America classified into eight biomes, ROC analysis confirmed that the squared-chord distance (SCD) outperforms most other distance metrics. The optimal threshold increased when more dissimilar biomes were compared. The probability of an analog vs no-analog result (a likelihood ratio) increased sharply when SCD decreased below the optimal threshold, indicating a nonlinear relationship between SCD and the probability of analog. Probabilities of analog computed for a postglacial pollen record at Tannersville Bog (Pennsylvania, USA) identified transitions between biomes and periods of no analog.     

三江源生态环境监测研究

青海省生态环境监测系统主要由遍布全省各典型生态系统区的生态环境监测站网、卫星遥感信息接收处理系统，信息收集、处理、模拟、评价系统，综合信息服务与反馈等部分组成。建立环境监测系统的目的是对青海省的生态环境进行系统监测和评估，及时为各级政府、有关部门和公众提供准确、全面的生态环境监测信息，为生态环境保护和建设提供科学依据。青海省生态环境监测系统于2003年5月1日开始业务运行，目前尚处于起步阶段。     

The Influence of Vegetation Cover on Summer Precipitation in China： a Statistical Analysis of NDVI and Climate Data

This study provides new evidence for the feedback effects of vegetation cover on summer precipitation in different regions of China by calculating immediate (same season), and one-and two-season lagged correlations between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and summer precipitation. The results show that the correlation coefficients between NDVI in spring and the previous winter and precipitation in summer are positive in most regions of China, and they show significant difference between regions. The stronger one-and two-season lagged correlations occur in the eastern arid/semi-arid region, Central China,and Southwest China out of the eight climatic regions of China, and this implies that vegetation cover change has more sensitive feedback effects on summer precipitation in the three regions. The three regions are defined as sensitive regions. Spatial analyses of correlations between spring NDVI averaged over each sensitive region and summer precipitation of 160 stations suggest that the vegetation cover strongly affects summer precipitation not only over the sensitive region itself but also over other regions, especially the downstream region.     

植被冠层多角度遥感研究进展

综述了近年来关于植被冠层多角度遥感研究的最新成果，分别讨论了二向性反射的正向模型和参量反演问题在理论和实际应用中的新进展。分析了卫星平台多角度遥感的应用前景及面临的困难，指出了未来多角度遥感研究的新方向。     

上海自然植被的特征、分区与保护

上海地区有种子植物约134科510属919种。种子植物的分区类型共15°个,其中泛热带分布、北温带和东亚分布各占总属数的27.8%、21.6%和11.9%.地带性植被以常绿阔叶林和常绿落叶阔叶混交林为主,其中红楠群落和青冈栎群落能较好地反映中亚热带的植被和环境特征。非地带性植被以潮间带植被和水生植被为主。上海自然植被的类型和分布规律反映了本区地处中亚热带向北亚热带过渡地带的气候特征以及濒江临海的环境特点。同时其现状也表明了上海的自然植被处于不断增长的压力之下所发生的变化,因此亟需加以保护。上海的植被区划可分为隶属于北亚热带常绿落叶阔叶林地带的河口沙洲植被区,碟缘高地植被区和东北淀泖低地植被区,以及隶属于中亚热带常绿阔叶林地带的西南丘陵、低地植被区等。     

RELATIONSHIP OF ECO-ENVIONMENTAL CHANGE WITH NATURAL EROSION AND ARTIFICIALLY ACCELERATED EROSION

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Dynamik der Schilfröhrichte am Bodensee unter dem Einfluss von Wasserstandsvariationen

On the basis of different sets of aerial photos the dynamics of the reed bed areas of Lake Constance were investigated in relation to the dynamics of the water levels. The objectives of the study were to quantify the changes of reed areas due to different flood events in the last decades and their recovery in the time periods between these events. The results should given information of the relevance of water level variations on reed bed dynamics and the regeneration times of reed beds after extreme disturbance events.Following the extreme flood at Lake Constance in 1999 the reed belts of Lake Constance lost approximately 30 ha (24%) of the lakeside reed beds. The loss is comparable to the situation in the late 1960s, when approximately 40 ha died back due to the extreme flood in 1965 and the high spring water levels in the subsequent years. In the time period between the extreme floods of 1965 and 1999, the reed areas expanded to nearly 85% of the area before 1965. The expansion rates increased with increasing distance to the flood event of 1965. Especially in periods with series of years of low spring water level the expansion rates were high.The damage degrees of the reed areas in the years 2000 and 2002 showed a clear relation to the elevation (i.e. average water level) of the stands. The damage degree increased with decreasing elevation. Furthermore the regeneration process of severely damaged stands was related to the elevation level of the stands. Whereas stands at high elevation regenerate fast, those at low elevation died off completely in the years after the extreme flood. This supports the hypothesis that the water level flutuations play a major role in the reed dynamics of Lake Constance.As a consequence of the climate change an increase in the frequency of high spring water levels is expected. Thus, it seems unlikely that reed stands will ever expand again to the same area as before 1965.     

论资源与环境的关系

资源与环境是人类赖以生存和发展的物质基础和条件，作为地球生态的两个方面，二者共同构成矛盾的统一体，相辅相成又相互制约。当与经济联系起来时，便具有确稀缺性和极限性。     

Wildlife management and land reform in southeastern Zimbabwe: a compatible pairing or a contradiction in terms?

This paper examines the melding of two discourses in southeastern Zimbabwe: land reform and wildlife management. The former seeks to redistribute large, ‘under-utilized’ landholdings to smallholders whilst the latter needs extensive land holdings to be viable. These two discourses are rooted in very different models of development. The land reform exercise emphasizes direct redistribution, equity and land for crops; whilst the wildlife management discourse tends to stress maximizing foreign exchange earnings, encouraging public-private partnerships and trickle down. Yet there has been a recent flurry of interest in the development of ‘wildlife models’ for land reform which would combine the two. This paper investigates whether the competing discourses about land for smallholders and wildlife-based land reform are compatible or can be successfully reconciled. It traces the ways they have come together in Zimbabwe’s southeast lowveld and examines the ‘science’ and politics underlying their melding. Finally it explores the potential implications for rural people’s livelihoods of this development. It concludes that land reform and wildlife management can be reconciled, but probably not in a particularly equitable way: it is more likely to provide an opening for an equitable land reform agenda to be usurped by local and non-local elites with wildlife interests.     

博斯腾湖向塔里木河输水风险分析方法

为了拯救塔里木河下游生态环境，塔里木河流域管理局根据博斯腾湖从1999年到2003年处于丰水期，湖泊处于高水位的有利时机，从2000年5月到2003年6月实施5次向塔里木河下游生态应急输水，结束塔里木河下游300多km河道近30年的断流历史。现在的问题是“博斯腾湖向塔里木河生态输水能否持续?”，“保证可持续输水的风险有多大?”本文以解决此问题为实例，介绍一般水库调节计算和水库特征水位确定方法；主要探讨水库(湖泊)向下游输水可持续性风险分析问题，提出的方法称为“水库输水可持续性风险计算时历试算法”，简称为“试算法”(T＆E方法)；并将此方法应用于实例中，计算博斯腾湖向塔里木河下游输水的可持续风险。