基于滤波顾及起算数据误差的赫尔默特估计法

在参数和起算数据的先验统计性质已知时,提出了基于滤波的顾及起算数据误差的赫尔默特估计法。这种方法估计出了相对于起算数据基准的精度,既充分考虑了起算数据的影响又没有增加计算量,并且将平差计算与随机模型的赫尔估计同时进行,使数据处理过程更加完善。     

基于海洋气候数据集的区域海平面变化非线性预测

本文基于中国首套长时间序列、高精度、高时空一致性的全球海洋气候数据集产品, 利用1993年1月至2015年12月的山东半岛近海海平面异常数据, 构建了基于集合经验模式分解(EEMD)和长短期记忆神经网络(LSTM)的海平面非线性变化组合预测模型。EEMD可以得到海平面异常的各周期项、线性趋势及残差部分, LSTM模型可对其进行逐个预测并重构得到最终的海平面异常预测结果。EEMD-LSTM组合模型海平面异常预测的均方根误差仅为25.87 mm, 取得了令人满意的效果。基于该组合模型预测2016-2025年山东半岛近海海平面上升速率将达到3.54 mm·a^-1。     

A Note on the Flux-Variance Similarity Relationships for Heat and Water Vapour in the Unstable Atmospheric Surface Layer

Atmospheric surface layer (ASL) experiments over the past 10 years demonstrate that the flux-variance similarity functions for water vapour are consistently larger in magnitude than their temperature counterpart. In addition, latent heat flux calculations using the flux-variance method do not compare as favorably to eddy- correlation measurements when compared to their sensible heat counterpart. These two findings, in concert with measured heat to water vapour transport efficiencies in excess of unity, are commonly used as evidence of dissimilarity between heat and water vapour transport in the unstable atmospheric surface layer. In this note, it is demonstrated that even if near equality in flux-profile similarity functions for heat and water vapour is satisfied, the flux-variance similarity functions for water vapour are larger in magnitude than temperature for a planar, homogeneous, unstably-stratified turbulent boundary-layer flow.     

Deterministic sensitivity analysis for a model for flow in porous media

A deterministic method for sensitivity analysis is developed and applied to a mathematical model for the simulation of flow in porous media. The method is based on the singular value decomposition (SVD) of the Jacobian matrix of the model. It is a local approach to sensitivity analysis providing a hierarchical classification of the directions in both the input space and of those in the output space reflecting the degree of sensitiveness of the latter to the former. Its low computational cost, in comparison with that of statistical approaches, allows the study of the variability of the results of the sensitivity analysis due to the variations of the input parameters of the model, and thus it can provide a quality criterion for the validity of more classical probabilistic global approaches. For the example treated here, however, this variability is weak, and deterministic and statistical methods yield similar sensitivity results.     

基于EMD小波阈值滤波的地磁数据去噪分析

采用小波阈值滤波、经验模态分解滤波和基于经验模态分解的小波阈值滤波3种方法,对磁通门磁力仪观测数据进行去噪,有效去除或抑制郫县地震台地磁数据的地电干扰.     

多功能水合物沉积物三轴试验系统的研制与应用

研制了新型多功能水合物沉积物三轴试验系统,系统由供-排气模块、应力加载模块、温控模块、数据采集模块和辅助模块组成。利用泵驱动高压液体施加围压和轴压,加载方式有恒压、恒流、梯度增压、跟踪气压模式,可以实现不同条件下的水合物合成、三轴剪切。围压跟踪气压的功能使水合物生成过程中净围压不变,保证了试样初始条件一致性。根据围压液体积变化测量试样体积变形,通过设置回压泵压力变化方式控制水合物气压,可以模拟不同降压速率条件下的水合物沉积物分解变形。以泥质粉细砂和二氧化碳为材料制作了三轴试样,进行了水合物合成、三轴剪切和降压分解试验,检验了仪器的可靠性。     

连分式拟合模型在沉降变形监测中的应用研究

介绍了连分式拟合模型的建模思路,提出了后验差法检验其模型精度,通过对某建筑物沉降数据的建模分析,验证了连分式拟合模型应用于沉降监测数据处理的可行性。     

基于不等式约束的磁共振信号T2谱多指数分解法及算法改进

磁共振地下水探测信号的弛豫时间T₂和振幅与地下岩石孔隙大小和地下水的含水量直接相关。目前,磁共振地下水探测方法中,信号的衰减特性由平均弛豫时间T^*₂来描述。然而,对于复杂的多孔介质组成的岩石结构,仅由T^*₂无法准确描述地下孔隙情况。详细研究了基于不等式约束的多指数分解法,进行了信号T₂谱的提取,并重新计算多指数形式下的信号初始振幅。结果表明：对比信号在不同采集时间下的T₂谱提取结果,延长信号的采集时间有助于T₂谱的准确提取;通过磁共振仿真信号计算并分析不同信噪比下的T₂谱提取结果,信噪比大于30 dB时相对误差平均值小于5%;进行算法改进,得到信噪比大于10 dB时相对误差平均值小于5%的结果,且幅值和T₂的相对误差平均值降低了约1/3。由此可知:采用多指数分解法能够获得磁共振信号的T₂谱,正则化技术和加权修正能够提高T₂谱的准确度和抗干扰能力;与单指数方式相比,采用多指数拟合能够更准确地恢复信号初始振幅。     

Shear-tensile crack as a tool for reliable estimates of the non-double-couple mechanism: West Bohemia-Vogtland earthquake 1997 swarm

Shear-tensile crack is a model for an earthquake mechanism that is more constrained than the moment tensor but that can still describe a non-shear focus. As such, the shear-tensile crack model is more robust than the moment tensor model and yields more reliable estimates for the earthquake mechanism. Such an advantage verifies the credibility of the non-double-couple component found for some events of the 1997 West Bohemia-Vogtland earthquake swarm. As expected, in several cases, a significantly resolved non-double-couple component was obtained where the moment tensor approach failed. Additionally, for non-shear sources, the shear-tensile crack model offers optimization of the Poisson number within the focus, concurrently with retrieval of the mechanism. However, results obtained for the joint inversion of the 1997 swarm indicate that resolution is low. A series of synthetic experiments indicated that limited observations during 1997 were not the cause. Rather, hypothetical experiments of both very good and extremely poor network configurations similarly yielded a low resolution for the Poisson number. Applying this method to data for recent swarms is irrelevant because the small non-double-couple components detected within the inversion are spurious and, thus, the events are pure double-couple phenomena.