不确定性视角下的中国省际人口迁移机制分析

人口迁移过程具有内在的不确定性。贝叶斯模型平均方法（BMA）为不确定性问题提供了行之有效的解决方案。然而,当前该方法多用于线性回归模型在变量选择时出现的模型不确定性问题,很少用于空间建模。本文以2010—2015年中国省际人口迁移流为例,将BMA方法应用于空间OD模型,在考虑网络空间结构的基础上选取迁出地和迁入地各7个解释变量及距离因素,利用马尔可夫链—蒙特卡罗模型综合方法（MC³）进行模型抽样,以后验模型概率为权重计算相应变量的迁出地、迁入地和网络效应等,定量分析不确定性背景下省际人口迁移影响因素和空间机制。结果表明：① BMA模型估计结果更为稳健可靠。与单一模型相比,BMA中变量效应估计的90%可信区间明显缩小,不确定性程度显著降低,结果更为精确;② 区域经济社会发展对省际迁移至关重要。经模型空间抽样后,迁出地人口规模和GDP、迁入地教育水平和迁移存量等的变量后验包含概率大于90%;③ 网络效应在省际迁移过程中不可忽视。所有变量的网络效应占总体效应的40%以上,其中工资、城镇化率、教育和迁移存量等的网络效应（绝对值）大于各自的迁出地和迁入地效应;④ 若不考虑迁移建模中的不确定性,绝大多数区域经济社会变量对省际迁移的影响会被高估。     

中国假木贼属(Anabasis)的地理分布及潜在分布区预测

基于最大熵模型（MaxEnt）和地理信息系统,结合中国假木贼属（Anabasis）7个种的地理分布记录及19个环境因子,预测这7个种的潜在分布区及该属的分布中心,并分析其主导环境因子。采用受试者工作特征曲线下面积作为模型预测准确度的衡量指标,刀切法用于评估各环境因子在决定潜在分布区时的贡献量。结果显示：（1）白垩假木贼（A.cretacea）、高枝假木贼（A.elatior）、毛足假木贼（A.eriopoda）、无叶假木贼（A.aphylla）、盐生假木贼（A.salsa）和展枝假木贼（A.truncata）的潜在适生区集中在新疆北部、天山南麓及塔里木盆地西侧,短叶假木贼（A.brevifolia）的潜在适生区在新疆、甘肃、宁夏和内蒙古的部分地区。（2）中国假木贼属的分布中心在新疆准噶尔盆地、天山南麓、塔里木盆地西侧及甘肃西北部的河西走廊。（3）在19个环境因子中,对中国假木贼属这7个种分布区预测贡献量较大的生态因子是年平均气温、最湿月降水量、最干季度平均温度、平均降水量、最冷季度降水量、年均温变化范围和最湿季度降水量。     

Control law for variable damping device defined by a non-linear differential equation

This paper proposes a non-linear control law for a variable damping device (VDD) aimed at reducing structural seismic responses. The VDD is attached to the structure by an auxiliary spring element composing a non-linear Maxwell element. The VDD's damping coefficient is adjusted to control the reactive internal force in the non-linear Maxwell element. A large controlled force is thus produced with little external power required to adjust the VDD's damping coefficient. The proposed control law defines the rate or increment of the VDD's damping coefficient at a certain moment by a differential equation or its discretized form. The controlled force vs. deformation relation plots parallelogram-like hysteretic curves, which indicates quick action and energy dissipation. Fundamental characteristics of an SDOF model with the VDD controlled by the proposed law are examined for impulse, sin and seismic excitations. The law for the SDOF model is extended to one for an MDOF model. The control effect for a 3DOF model is examined by numerical experiments. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

利用GPS速度场估算青藏高原地壳韧性层等效粘滞系数分布的研究

本文将青藏高原及周边区域地壳分为脆性层和韧性层,并假定脆性层地壳近似弹性,韧性层为粘弹性层。利用GPS水平速度场计算了地面应变场,推导了地壳内部作用力在不同点产生应变率之间的关系公式。利用稳态热传导方程估算了地壳内部温度场,利用破裂强度和蠕变强度相等估算了脆性-韧性转换面。并进一步估算了青藏高原地壳不同深度的粘滞系数分布。结果表明,青藏高原及周边区域脆性-韧性转换面一般位于中地壳,深度分布在22~37km之间,地壳较厚的区域转换层也较深;韧性层内粘滞系数分布,在中地壳约为 ,下地壳约为 ,Moho面则降至 。关键词：脆性-韧性转换层 温度场 应变率 等效粘滞系数     

NON-LINEAR WAVE-INDUCED RESPONSE OF POROUS SEABED: A FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSIS

Conventional investigations of waves–seabed interaction problems have been only concerned with the soil response due to two-dimensional linear progressive waves over a uniform seabed. However, the effects of non-linear waves which have been reported in the literature may be significantly different. In this paper, a finite element model is developed to investigate the non-linear wave-induced seabed response with variable permeability and shear modulus in a three-dimensional domain. The finite element formulations are fully presented in this paper. The numerical model is verified with the previous investigations through the reduced form of the present solution. The numerical results indicate that the influence of non-linear wave components cannot always be ignored without substantial error. Furthermore, the wave-induced seabed response is affected significantly by variable permeability in coarser seabeds and variable shear modulus in finer seabeds. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The most resonant pulsation frequency of δ Scuti stars

Pulsation of the Sun with a period of P₀ ≈ 160 min discovered about two decades ago, is still waiting explanation. In view of the hypothesis about its cosmological origin, and attempting to find signature of this P₀ periodicity among other (short-period variable) stars, the pulsation frequencies of δ Sct stars are subjected to specific analysis. With a confidence level ≈ 3.8σ it is found that the frequency v₀ = P₀⁻¹ ≈ 104 m̈Hz, within the error limits, appears indeed to be the most “resonant” one for the total sample of 318 pulsating stars of δ Sct type (the most commensurable, or “synchronizing”, period for all these stars occurs to be 162 ± 4 min). We conjecture that a) the P₀ oscillation might be connected with periodic fluctuations of gravity field (metrics), and b) the primary excitation mechanism of pulsations of δ Sct stars, reffected by this “ubiquitous” P₀ resonance, must be attributed perhaps to superfast rotation of their inner cores (their rates tend to be in near-resonance with the “universal” v₀ frequency). The arguments are given favouring a cosmoogical nature of the P₀ oscillation.     

Photometric variability of the Herbig Ae/Be star HD 200775

We present results of photometric monitoring of HD 200775 in the passbands X and V of the VILGEN system obtained over the period from September 1994 to May 1995. It is shown that the star varies with a period of 10.225±0.041 days and an amplitude of 0.02 mag in X passband. The variations on the time scale of several hours and/or days are also confirmed.     

Study on Vortex-Induced Motions of A New Type of Deep Draft Multi-Columns FDPSO

A numerical simulation and an experimental study on vortex-induced motion (VIM) of a new type of deep draft multi-columns floating drilling production, storage and offloading (FDPSO) are presented in this paper. The main dimension, the special variable cross-section column and the cabin arrangement of the octagonal pontoon are introduced based on the result. The numerical simulation is adapted to study the effects of current incidence angles and reduced velocities on this platform''s sway motion response. The 300 m water depth equivalent truncated mooring system is adopted for the model tests. The model tests are carried out to check the reliability of numerical simulation. The results consist of surge, sway and yaw motions, as well as motion trajectories. The maximum sway amplitudes for different types of offshore platform is also studied. The main results show that the peak frequencies of sway motion under different current incidence angles and reduced velocities vary around the natural frequency. The analysis result of flow field indicates that the change of distribution of vortex in vertical presents significant influences on the VIM of platform. The trend of sway amplitude ratio curve of this new type FDPSO differs from the other types of platform. Under 45° current incidence angle, the sway amplitude of this new type of FDPSO is much smaller than those of other types of offshore platform at 4.4 ≤ V_r ≤ 8.9. The typical ‘8’ shape trajectory does not appear in the platform''s motion trajectories.     

基础隔震建筑混合控制的变结构趋近律方法

本文对叠层胶支座基础震建筑的混合振动控制问题进行了研究。利用控制律设计的变结构趋近律方法,给出了相应的闭环控制律表示式。