近百年西北太平洋热带气旋年频数的变化特征

利用经趋势订正的１８８４－１９８８年西北太平洋热带气旋年频数资料，分析了热带气旋年频数的多年变化及其与海面温度、南方涛动指数、太阳黑子数和环流型日数等的统计关系。初步结果表明，热带气旋年频数的变化具有明显的２１年、３１年、１５年和６年左右的周期和持续期平均为１２年左右的阶段变化；近百年来有三次较明显的转折，分别出现在１９３１、１９５９年１９７７年。热带气旋年频数在厄尔尼诺年有冬春季偏少、夏秋季偏多     

大城市边缘区建设用地空间分布格局的定量化测度研究

选择北京市房山区平原地区作为分析样区，在GIS技术的支持下对建设用地的空间分布格局进行了定量化测度研究。分析数据显示，其分布与交通干线具有明显的空间相关，交通干线具有一定的“轴向”聚集和辐射效应。     

结合变差纹理特征的极化SAR建筑物震害信息提取

快速评估建筑物地震灾害信息对地震应急救援工作有着指导意义,而极化SAR具有全天候、全天时的特点,因此利用极化SAR图像提取震害信息已逐渐成为研究热点。虽然极化SAR具有丰富的极化信息,但其纹理信息不可忽略,尤其是完好的人工建筑物在图像上呈现规则的纹理特征,而倒塌建筑区域纹理分布杂乱,因此结合纹理信息也可以很好地提取建筑物信息。以2010年玉树地区的全极化SAR数据为研究对象,首先,利用Yamaguchi分解的体散射分量PV提取了SAR图像中的建筑物区域以及道路、水系等非建筑物信息,在此基础上,对相干散射矩阵T11分量中倒塌建筑物、完好建筑区域进行变差计算,根据变差曲线确定变程a后,再对建筑物区域采取窗口m*m(m=3*a)进行变差计算得到变差纹理信息,最后利用FCM算法对变差纹理信息分别提取完好建筑物和倒塌建筑物区域,为了对比分析,文章利用Yamaguchi分解的二次散射分量PD提取完好建筑物区域,与震后光学遥感图像对应样本点进行人工验证,得到完好建筑物的提取精度为80.18%,倒塌建筑物的提取精度为84.54%,道路水系的提取精度为77.58%。     

Tide-induced head fluctuations in coastal aquifers of variable thickness

In this work, a new analytical solution to describe tide-induced head fluctuations in aquifers of variable thickness is presented. The proposed model assumes a finite and confined aquifer with a thickness that increases or decreases quadratically with the distance to the coast. A closed-form analytical solution is obtained by solving a boundary-value problem with both a separation of variables method and a change of variables method. This solution is a generalization of the solution obtained by Cuello et al., Hydrogeological Journal, 2017, 25, 1509–1515. The analytical solution is expressed in terms of the wedging parameter, a parameter that depends on the length and thicknesses at the coast and at the inland edge of the aquifer. Positive values of the wedging parameter describe aquifers with increasing thickness towards land and negative values describe aquifers with a decreasing thickness in the inland direction. The comparison of the new solution and the solution for a finite aquifer with constant thickness indicates that the sign of the wedging parameter enhances or decreases the amplitude of the tide-induced signal. However, the differences in time-lag between both solutions are negligible near the coast. The slope factor, which quantifies the inconsistencies between aquifer diffusivities estimated from attenuation and time-lag data, is computed and analysed. Near the coast, slope factor values greater than one are obtained for negative wedging parameters while slope factor values less than one are obtained for positive wedging parameters. The analysis of the new solution also indicates that more reliable estimates of the hydraulic diffusivity can be obtained from time-lag data.     

Estimation of proportions of lithotypes using auxiliary information

The problem of estimating the proportion of lithological (ore) types in volumes of mineral deposits is considered when an auxiliary variable Z(z) is observed along with the lithology L(x) at x. The process {Z(x)} is assumed to be stationary and an assumption on the statistical relationship between {Z(x)} and {L(x)} processes is made. Consequently, the second-order stationarity of {L(x)} is not required. A method using the kriged distribution of the auxiliary variable is proposed. A case study illustrating the procedure is given.     

Statistical mineral prediction without defining a training area

Statistical mineral prediction without defining a training area is one of the most important problems in mathematical geology. A mineralized favorability index (MFI) model is proposed. It is assumed that a certain geological environment related to the ore deposits or bodies considered can be described by a snythesis variable Y=_ix_i, where x_i (i=1 ... k) are k geological variables and _i are the weights, respectively. Y and _i are to be estimated. The study area is divided into equal-sized cells and assessed by comparing the Y values in the cells with each other.This paper is based on the main result of the author's master thesis, Wuhan College of Geology, Wuhan, China     

PSZJ-1型声波全波列测井仪在固井质量检测中应用

PSZJ-1声波全波列测井仪是煤炭系统首台小口径固井质量检查测井仪器,可用于测量自然伽马、套管接箍、声波时差、声幅、声波全波列五种参数。在固井质量检查测井时,根据声幅测井曲线的高（〉90%）和低（〈10%）以及声波变密度测井图上有无波形或波形的规则程度,可有效检查水泥环胶结质量,评价第一界面和第二界面的胶结情况。二个实例表明该仪器在固井质量检测中具有较好的应用效果。     

关于水文随机变量频率组合方法的初探

对现行<水利水电工程设计洪水计算规范>SL44-2006的"附录A.3地区洪水的频率组合"中所介绍的频率组合方法做了分析,指出用该法计算的组合变量及其出现的频率,均将可能给出偏小的结果,从而难以满足生产建设的实际需要.本文提出水文随机变量频率组合方法的初探,以黄浦江防潮工程建设为例,通过上游来水和下游潮汐频率的组合计算,推求出更为合理的上海市区最高潮(水)位,供工程技术设计人员及规范修改时参考.     

观光旅游者地方依恋、满意度与忠诚度间关系研究

选择能够反映观光旅游者心理特征的多样性偏好变量,引入已有的地方依恋、满意度和忠诚度关系模型,通过结构方程模型检验多样性偏好对观光旅游者地方依恋、满意度与忠诚度关系的影响。结果表明:(1)观光旅游者的地方依恋对满意度、满意度对忠诚度均具有显著正向影响;观光旅游者地方认同对忠诚度具有直接正向影响,而地方依赖对忠诚度的影响没有得到证实。(2)多样性偏好对观光旅游者满意度与重游意愿及观光旅游者地方依恋与重游意愿之间起着显著的调节作用。观光旅游者的多样性偏好越强烈,其满意度与重游意愿之间的关系越弱,其地方依恋与重游意愿之间的关系也越弱。     

Modeling urban expansion by using variable weights logistic cellular automata: a case study of Nanjing,China

Simulation models based on cellular automata (CA) are widely used for understanding and simulating complex urban expansion process. Among these models, logistic CA (LCA) is commonly adopted. However, the performance of LCA models is often limited because the fixed coefficients obtained from binary logistic regression do not reflect the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of transition rules. Therefore, we propose a variable weights LCA (VW-LCA) model with dynamic transition rules. The regression coefficients in this VW-LCA model are based on VW by incorporating a genetic algorithm in a conventional LCA. The VW-LCA model and the conventional LCA model were both used to simulate urban expansion in Nanjing, China. The models were calibrated with data for the period 2000–2007 and validated for the period 2007–2013. The results showed that the VW-LCA model performed better than the LCA model in terms of both visual inspection and key indicators. For example, kappa, accuracy of urban land and figure of merit for the simulation results of 2013 increased by 3.26%, 2.96% and 4.44%, respectively. The VW-LCA model performs relatively better compared with other improved LCA models that are suggested in literature.