辽宁省低碳经济发展水平评价

构建包含经济系统、能源系统、碳排放系统、技术投入系统和环境系统5个准则层及23个指标的低碳经济发展水平评价体系,基于可变模糊识别模型,分析评价辽宁省低碳经济发展水平。结果显示:辽宁省低碳经济发展水平由2004年的2.87提升到2014年的3.01,由中碳偏高水平提升到中碳发展水平。沈阳、大连、丹东、锦州、营口和葫芦岛的低碳经济发展水平较高;鞍山、抚顺、本溪、盘锦、辽阳及铁岭的低碳经济发展水平较低。在此基础上,运用SBM模型测算辽宁省各市的碳排放效率,其结果与低碳经济发展水平评价值有较大关联。     

中国生产性服务业市场潜能与空间分布——基于面板工具模型的实证研究

利用2003~2012年全国285个地级及以上城市面板数据,研究了中国生产性服务业及其市场潜能的空间分布特征,并基于面板工具计量模型,实证检验了生产性服务业市场潜能对其空间分布的影响。主要结论是：① 生产性服务业主要集中在区域中心城市,且中心城市与非中心城市生产性服务业发展差距日益加大;生产性服务业市场潜能主要集中在东部沿海地区,从动态上东部地区与中西部地区生产性服务业市场潜能差距在逐渐减小;② 生产性服务业市场潜能对生产性服务业空间分布具有显著影响。分行业看,市场潜能仅对金融服务业和科技服务业的空间分布影响不显著,对商务服务业的空间分布影响最大;③ 市场潜能有效地带动了区域中心城市生产性服务业的发展,但对非中心城市生产性服务业的带动作用不明显,市场潜能没能有效地转化为真实需求。基于此,建议中国未来应提高非中心城市生产性服务业的市场潜能,带动其生产性服务业的发展,尤其是提高非中心城市的本地化专业服务水平,以满足非中心城市工业转型升级过程中受距离限制不能从中心城市获得的专业化生产服务。     

Surface vertical displacements, potential perturbations andgravity changes of a viscoelastic earth model induced by internal point dislocations

Using the viscoelastic correspondence principle, we utilize the surface coseismic spheroidal deformation fields (i.e. vertical displacements, potential perturbations and gravity changes) of SNREI earth models caused by four typical types of point dislocation, derived by Sun & Okubo (1993 ), to deduce the fundamental formulas for spheroidal fields relevant to viscoelastic earth models. In computations, we employ a strike-slip dislocation on a vertical plane buried at the bottom of the lithosphere to estimate the maximal viscous relaxation responses to this kind of source that possibly exist on the surface of the earth. We take the seismic moment as 10²²  N  m, which is characteristic of an average large earthquake. The numerical results demonstrate that, if we take the viscosity as 10¹⁹  Pa  s in the asthenosphere, and 10²¹  Pa  s in the other mantle layers, the rates of surface vertical displacements and gravity changes within about 2.5° for the 10 postseismic years are respectively 1.5–8.1  cm  yr⁻¹ and 4.0–14.9  μgal  yr⁻¹ : the viscous relaxation for this mantle viscosity profile proceeds much faster than for a constant mantle viscosity of 10²¹  Pa  s.     

斜压海洋动力学的一种三维数值模式──Ⅱ.温度、盐度和垂直涡动粘性系数的计算

根据海水温度和盐度平流扩散方程给出一种数值计算方案并采用混合长度理论给出垂直涡动粘性系数的计算方法。对于温度和盐度方程,其平流过程采用了Lax－Wendroff格式,水平扩散采用显格式,垂直扩散采用隐格式。时间步长主要受平流过程的Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy条件限制。垂直涡动粘性系数计算依据Prandtl混合长度理论,并考虑了海水层化的抑制作用,因而其数值与流场及密度场结构有关。温度、盐度及垂直涡动粘性系数的计算与动力方程中内模态的计算同步进行。应用本模式模拟渤、黄、东海由潮流、密度流和风海流迭加而成的综合海流,得出了良好的结果。     

南京地区雨滴谱参数的详细统计分析及其在天气雷达探测中的应用

雨滴谱包含了降雨的丰富信息,不仅能反映雨滴群的微物理特性,也能反映降雨类型、降雨强度等宏观特性,并且在雷达气象领域也有重要的价值。论文对2015和2016年度南京地区32次降雨过程的雨滴谱资料进行了处理、并对多种雨滴参数进行了详细的统计和分析,拟合了层状云降雨、对流云降雨以及积层混合云降雨的雨滴谱Gamma分布参数。另外,还基于雨滴谱数据拟合了雷达反射率因子Z与降雨强度R的Z-R关系,计算了差分反射率Z_DR、相位常数K_DP以及衰减参数,并利用衰减参数进行了C波段雷达回波的衰减订正试验。结果表明:（1）层状云降雨的各微物理参数比较稳定,积雨云的变化剧烈;层云降雨和积层混合云降雨的中雨滴、积雨云降雨的大雨滴对雷达反射率因子的贡献最大。（2）积雨云降雨的滴谱最宽,层状云降雨的最窄。（3）利用依据雨滴谱数据拟合的三类降雨Z-R关系,可以一定程度地提高雷达估测降雨的精度。（4）利用基于雨滴谱数据拟合的衰减系数,有效地进行了C波段双偏振雷达回波强度的衰减订正,体现了统计参数和拟合参数准确性。     

A model‐based data‐driven dictionary learning for seismic data representation

Planar waves events recorded in a seismic array can be represented as lines in the Fourier domain. However, in the real world, seismic events usually have curvature or amplitude variability, which means that their Fourier transforms are no longer strictly linear but rather occupy conic regions of the Fourier domain that are narrow at low frequencies but broaden at high frequencies where the effect of curvature becomes more pronounced. One can consider these regions as localised “signal cones”. In this work, we consider a space–time variable signal cone to model the seismic data. The variability of the signal cone is obtained through scaling, slanting, and translation of the kernel for cone‐limited (C‐limited) functions (functions whose Fourier transform lives within a cone) or C‐Gaussian function (a multivariate function whose Fourier transform decays exponentially with respect to slowness and frequency), which constitutes our dictionary. We find a discrete number of scaling, slanting, and translation parameters from a continuum by optimally matching the data. This is a non‐linear optimisation problem, which we address by a fixed‐point method that utilises a variable projection method with ?₁ constraints on the linear parameters and bound constraints on the non‐linear parameters. We observe that slow decay and oscillatory behaviour of the kernel for C‐limited functions constitute bottlenecks for the optimisation problem, which we partially overcome by the C‐Gaussian function. We demonstrate our method through an interpolation example. We present the interpolation result using the estimated parameters obtained from the proposed method and compare it with those obtained using sparsity‐promoting curvelet decomposition, matching pursuit Fourier interpolation, and sparsity‐promoting plane‐wave decomposition methods.     

Development of a distributed hydrological model to facilitate watershed management

To facilitate precise and cost-effective watershed management, a simple yet spatially and temporally distributed hydrological model (DHM-WM) was developed. The DHM-WM is based on the Mishra-Singh version of the curve number method, with several modifications: The spatial distribution of soil moisture was considered in moisture updating; the travel time of surface runoff was calculated on a grid cell basis for routing; a simple tile flow module was included as an option. The DHM-WM was tested on a tile-drained agricultural watershed in Indiana, USA. The model with the tile flow module performed well in the study area, providing a balanced water budget and reasonable flow partitioning. The daily coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient were 0.58 and 0.56, for the calibration period, and 0.63 and 0.62 for the validation period. The DHM-WM also provides detailed information about the source areas of flow components, the travel time and pathways of surface runoff.

EDITOR A. Castellarin; ASSOCIATE EDITOR F.-J. Chang     

Enhanced identification of a hydrologic model using streamflow and satellite water storage data: A multicriteria sensitivity analysis and optimization approach

Hydrologic model development and calibration have continued in most cases to focus only on accurately reproducing streamflows. However, complex models, for example, the so‐called physically based models, possess large degrees of freedom that, if not constrained properly, may lead to poor model performance when used for prediction. We argue that constraining a model to represent streamflow, which is an integrated resultant of many factors across the watershed, is necessary but by no means sufficient to develop a high‐fidelity model. To address this problem, we develop a framework to utilize the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment's (GRACE) total water storage anomaly data as a supplement to streamflows for model calibration, in a multiobjective setting. The VARS method (Variogram Analysis of Response Surfaces) for global sensitivity analysis is used to understand the model behaviour with respect to streamflow and GRACE data, and the BORG multiobjective optimization method is applied for model calibration. Two subbasins of the Saskatchewan River Basin in Western Canada are used as a case study. Results show that the developed framework is superior to the conventional approach of calibration only to streamflows, even when multiple streamflow‐based error functions are simultaneously minimized. It is shown that a range of (possibly false) system trajectories in state variable space can lead to similar (acceptable) model responses. This observation has significant implications for land‐surface and hydrologic model development and, if not addressed properly, may undermine the credibility of the model in prediction. The framework effectively constrains the model behaviour (by constraining posterior parameter space) and results in more credible representation of hydrology across the watershed.     

An extended variable-grid global ocean circulation model and its preliminary results of the equatorial Pacific circulation

1IntroductionThetropicalPacificOceanplaysanimpor-tantroleintheclimatevariabilitiessuchasElNi-no-SouthernOscillation(ENSO)phenomenon(Chao,1993).ManystudieshavefoundthatthetropicalPacificvariabilitiescanhavesignifi-cantinfluenceontheoceancirculationintheseasadjacenttoChina(Yu,1985;Chaoetal.,1996;Wangetal.,2002).TheseaareaadjacenttoChinaischaracterizedbyitscomplextopog-raphyandnumerousnarrowstraits,andthusre-quiresafinegridtoresolve.Tostudytheinter-actionbetweenthetropicalPacificandChinas…