基于广义极值理论的潜在地震海啸源震级上限及强震重现水平的估计——以琉球海沟俯冲带为例

以琉球海沟俯冲带作为研究区,将广义极值理论用于估计潜在地震海啸源震级上限,首先分析了琉球海沟俯冲带的地震地质构造特征以及历史地震资料,界定潜在地震海啸源区,然后根据地震活动性特征按时间域进行分割,并提取各时间段发生的极限震级的地震样本,最后通过广义极值分布模型估计了该区域的震级上限值和强震重现水平,并对其进行了不确定性分析。     

利用流固耦合模型模拟地震和海啸全过程

海底地震引起的海啸过程在力学上是一个流固耦合问题。地震引起的海底变形会影响流体的运动,流体运动会影响地震引起的海底变形。海啸的数值模拟,通常采用浅水波控制方程,把地震引起的海底变形作为海啸波动的边界条件或初始条件,不考虑它们之间的相互作用。本文采用势流体的流固耦合有限元方法模拟了地震和海啸的全过程。地震过程的模拟与地震位错模型不同,在位错模型中,断层的位错是事先指定的;而在本文中,首先形成自重作用下的初始应力场,然后通过断层材料的突然软化引起的错动,模拟地震震源的动力学过程。模拟结果显示,在海面除了可以看到大振幅的海啸波外,还可以发现体波震相和面波震相。在600 km的海面震中距上,它们要比海啸波早到48分钟,在此处面波的最大平均振幅可达0.55 m,是相同震中距海底面波最大平均振幅的2倍。因此,海啸预警信息在海面可以比在地表更早地得到。海啸波的传播速度在水深3 km的开阔海面是175.8 m/s,它要比理想长波理论预测的大,其平均振幅为2 m,波长可达32 km. 到达大陆架后其速度、波长都减小,在岸边可以激起10 m高的巨浪,水平方向深入陆地达53 m。震中附近海面和地震断层上的最大垂直加速度分别为5.9 m/s2和16.3 m/s2,后者是前者的2.8倍。由此看来,海水是很好的减震器。海啸波的加速度到达岸边会衰减10倍。与加速度不同,海面震中处的振动速度为3.2 m/s, 是海底震源处的1.4倍。震源处的最大位移小于震中海面的最大位移, 其差就是海啸波源的振幅。值得注意的是,海底地震的最大位错在震后23 s达到,不是发生在断层滑动的开始。      

印尼海啸区附近海域沉积物声速测量及声学特性分析

介绍了沉积物柱状样超声透射法测量方法和原理.对印尼海啸区附近海域沉积物柱状样进行了现场测量,通过测量数据的处理和分析,给出了沉积物的垂向声速剖面.讨论了声速与频率的关系,指出声速具有随频率的0.1次方增大的频散特性.分析沉积深度、结构以及生物扰动等方面的因素对声学测量结果的影响,结果表明海底地震引起的沉积物变迁、沉积物结构扰动、气体的混入等对声速的测量结果均产生影响.     

Analysis and automatic processing in near-field of eight 1992–1994 tsunamigenic earthquakes: Improvements towards real-time tsunami warning

We study eight tsunamigenic earthquakes of 1992–1994 with data from single near-field 3-component long-period stations. The analysis is made from the standpoint of tsunami warning by an automatic process which estimates the epicentral location and the seismic moment through the variable-period mantle magnitudeM _m . Simulations of early warning based on the real-time computation of the seismic moment are also tested with this system, which would give a justified warning in each region of tsunami potentiality. By exploiting the dependence of moment rate release with frequency, the system has the capability of recognizing both tsunami earthquakes such as the 1992 Nicaragua and 1994 Java events, as well as instances of the opposite case of low-frequency deficiency, interpreted as indicating a deeper than normal source (1993 Guam event). We report both the results of delayed-time processing of the near-field stations, and the actual real-time warnings at PPT, which confirm the former.     

The Arequipa (Peru) earthquake of June 23, 2001

The Arequipa earthquake of 23 June 2001 hasbeen the largest earthquake (Mw = 8.3)occurredin the last century in southern Peru with amaximum intensity of VIII (MM scale). Focalmechanisms of main shock and three largeraftershocks have been studied, showingthrusting solutions for main shock and twoaftershocks and normal motion for the eventof July, 5. The rupture area has beenobtained from distribution of aftershocks.The occurrence of the Arequipa earthquakeis related with the convergence processbetween the Nazca and South Americaplates.     

Historical tsunamis and storms recorded in a coastal lowland,Shizuoka Prefecture,along the Pacific Coast of Japan

Four sand units deposited by tsunamis and one sand unit deposited by storm surge(s) were identified in a muddy marsh succession in a narrow coastal lowland along the Pacific coast of central Japan. Tsunamis in ad 1498, 1605, 1707 and 1854 that were related to large subduction‐zone earthquakes along the Nankai Trough, and storm surges in 1680 and/or 1699 were responsible for the deposition of these sand units. These sand units are distinguished by lithofacies, sedimentary structures, grain‐size and mineral composition, and radiocarbon ages; their ages are supported by events in local historical records. The tsunami deposits in the study area are massive or parallel‐laminated sands, with associated intraclasts, gravels, draping mud layers and, rarely, a return‐flow subunit. The storm surge deposits are devoid of these characteristics, and are composed of groups of thin, current ripple‐laminated sand layers. The differences in sedimentary structures between the tsunami and storm surge deposits are attributed to the different characteristics of tsunami and storm waves.     

Field Survey of Tsunami Effects in Sri Lanka due to the Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake of December 26, 2004

The December 26, 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake that registered a moment magnitude (M_w) of 9.1 was one of the largest earthquakes in the world since 1900. The devastating tsunami that resulted from this earthquake caused more casualties than any previously reported tsunami. The number of fatalities and missing persons in the most seriously affected countries were Indonesia - 167,736, Sri Lanka - 35,322, India - 18,045 and Thailand - 8,212. This paper describes two field visits to assess tsunami effects in Sri Lanka by a combined team of Japanese and Sri Lankan researchers. The first field visit from December 30, 2004 – January 04, 2005 covered the western and southern coasts of Sri Lanka including the cities of Moratuwa, Beruwala, Bentota, Pereliya, Hikkaduwa, Galle, Talpe, Matara, Tangalla and Hambantota. The objectives of the first field visit were to investigate the damage caused by the tsunami and to obtain eyewitness information about wave arrival times. The second field visit from March 10–18, 2005 covered the eastern and southern coasts of Sri Lanka and included Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Arugam Bay, Yala National Park and Kirinda. The objectives of the second visit were mainly to obtain eyewitness information about wave arrival times and inundation data, and to take relevant measurements using GPS instruments.     

Energetics of the Tsunami of 26 December 2004 in the Indian Ocean: A Brief Review

The energetics of the most destructive tsunami in historical time, and that of the under ocean earthquake that triggered this tsunami of 26 December 2004 in the Indian Ocean have been briefly reviewed. This latest tsunami has several other unique characteristics besides being one of the worst natural disasters in human history. It is the first truly global tsunami after modern seismographic and sea level monitoring networks have been put in place. It was the first tsunami on record detected by a satellite, even though at present, global satellite coverage of the oceans for real time tsunami detection is not adequate. Finally, the energy associated with the tsunami and the earthquake that triggered it is so large that speculation has been made about the normal modes of oscillation of the earth, that were triggered by the earthquake as well as some suggestions, that some of the earth's rotational characteristics may have temporarily changed to a discernible degree. Here, we briefly review the energetics of the tsunami and the earthquake that triggered it.     

Tsunami Hazard in the Eastern Mediterranean: Strong Earthquakes and Tsunamis in the Corinth Gulf,Central Greece

The exhaustive review of a long number of historical documents, books, reports,scientific and press reports, instrumental recordings, previous catalogues andpersonal field observations, concluded with the production of a completely newtsunami catalogue for the Corinth Gulf, Central Greece, which is arranged in theformat adopted by the GITEC group for the new European Tsunami Catalogue.The catalogue is presented in three sections: the Quick-Look Table, the Quick-LookAccounts File and the References File. An Appendix explains why some particularsea disturbances were not included in the new catalogue although they were consideredas tsunami events by previous researchers. Past history clearly shows that most tsunamis in the Corinth Gulf are produced by strong (Ms 5.5) offshore and near shore earthquakes. However, seismic or aseismic sliding of coastal and submarine sediments is a significant factor in tsunamigenesis. Calculations based on the random model indicate that the probability for at least one tsunami occurrence of intensity TI 2 TI 3 and TI 4 within 50 years equals 0.851, 0.747 and 0.606, respectively. From the intensity–frequency relationship the mean return period of tsunami intensity TI 2, TI 3 and TI 4 equals to 16, 40 and 103 years. The tsunami geographicaldistribution, however, is non-random with a clear trend for the tsunamigenesis todecrease drastically from west to east within the Corinth Gulf. In fact, the probabilityfor a strong earthquake to cause a tsunami of TI 3 in the Corinth Gulf consideredas an entity is 0.35, while in the western part of the Gulf it goes up to 0.55. Therefore, the rapid and accurate determination of the earthquake focal parameters is of great importance in an algorithm of a real-time tsunami warning system in the Corinth Gulf.     

海啸波作用下泥沙运动——Ⅰ.岸滩剖面变化分析

在波浪水槽实验的基础上,对海啸波作用下的岸滩剖面演变规律开展研究。实验采用1/10~1/20的组合坡度,考虑3种不同的水深,选取N波作为入射波,同时采用规则波和非规则波进行对比研究。实验对波高、波浪的上爬、回落和水跃过程、每个波作用后的地形进行了测量和记录。研究结果表明,水动力特性的不同造成了N波与规则波和不规则波作用下不同的岸滩剖面演变特点。N波作用下发生了明显的岸滩冲刷和淤积,水流回落时滩肩发生冲刷,高速薄层回流和出渗水流作用是滩肩冲刷的主要原因,离岸区水跃发生水流挟沙力降低,泥沙淤积呈沙坝剖面。