Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context

The climate change research community’s shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development scenarios focused on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. To use these scenarios as a global context that is relevant for policy guidance at regional and national levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise.In this paper, we present scenarios for West Africa developed by regional stakeholders and quantified using two global economic models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with stakeholder-generated narratives and scenario trends and SSP assumptions. We present this process as an example of linking comparable scenarios across levels to increase coherence with global contexts, while presenting insights about the future of agriculture and food security under a range of future drivers including climate change.In these scenarios, strong economic development increases food security and agricultural development. The latter increases crop and livestock productivity leading to an expansion of agricultural area within the region while reducing the land expansion burden elsewhere. In the context of a global economy, West Africa remains a large consumer and producer of a selection of commodities. However, the growth in population coupled with rising incomes leads to increases in the region’s imports. For West Africa, climate change is projected to have negative effects on both crop yields and grassland productivity, and a lack of investment may exacerbate these effects. Linking multi-stakeholder regional scenarios to the global SSPs ensures scenarios that are regionally appropriate and useful for policy development as evidenced in the case study, while allowing for a critical link to global contexts.     

From shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) to oceanic system pathways (OSPs): Building policy-relevant scenarios for global oceanic ecosystems and fisheries

There is an urgent need for developing policy-relevant future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services. This paper is a milestone toward this aim focusing on open ocean fisheries. We develop five contrasting Oceanic System Pathways (OSPs), based on the existing five archetypal worlds of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed for climate change research (e.g., Nakicenovic et al., 2014 and Riahi et al., 2016). First, we specify the boundaries of the oceanic social-ecological system under focus. Second, the two major driving forces of oceanic social-ecological systems are identified in each of three domains, viz., economy, management and governance. For each OSP (OSP1 “sustainability first”, OSP2 “conventional trends”, OSP3 “dislocation”, OSP4 “global elite and inequality”, OSP5 “high tech and market”), a storyline is outlined describing the evolution of the driving forces with the corresponding SSP. Finally, we compare the different pathways of oceanic social-ecological systems by projecting them in the two-dimensional spaces defined by the driving forces, in each of the economy, management and governance domains. We expect that the OSPs will serve as a common basis for future model-based scenario studies in the context of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES).     

边缘型旅游地特征、形成机制与发展路径——以安徽省宣城市为例

边缘型旅游地的开发建设是中国旅游业转型升级时代面临的重要命题。随着区域经济一体化的推进和消费者消费理念的转变,一些边缘型旅游地开始逐渐成长为区域旅游发展的"潜力区",研究空间与研究意义日益凸显。以具有典型边缘性特征的宣城市为实证,从区位空间、旅游资源、旅游形象、旅游交通和旅游经济等角度剖析其多重边缘化特征,探讨边缘化形成的主要机制。地处省际交界区、地域特征典型性不足是边缘化形成的自然诱因,周边核心旅游地遮蔽效应显著是边缘化形成的空间致因,经济支撑能力薄弱是边缘化形成的经济制因,政策惠及偏少是边缘化形成的人为促因。边缘型旅游地应实施多元比附、突出个性差异、完善要素建设的发展路径。     

8000-year history of palaeoproductivity in a large boreal lake

An 8000-year record of palaeoproductivity, based on the chemical and chironomid stratigraphies from Lake Päijänne, S. Finland, was assessed with respect to known morphometric, climatic and anthropogenic events. A gradual trend of dystrophication and an associated decrease in aquatic production was detected during the Holocene, with the following exceptions: (1) high diatom and chironomid production around 8000-6000 cal yr BP, (2) eutrophication around 2000 cal yr BP, and (3) an anthropogenic signal during the last few decades.The changes in chironomid assemblages, before the past few decades, have mainly been shifts in concentration, but not in species composition. Variation in chironomid production was mainly explained by the accumulations of biogenic silicon, carbon and organic matter. Nutrient availability seems to be important in controlling biogenic silicon, which we use to infer past diatom production. The high production ca. 8000-6000 cal yr BP and the fluctuation in chironomid influx after ca. 2000 cal yr BP, however, were probably caused by the proposed warm/dry and cold/wet conditions during these times, respectively. These results highlight the sensitivity of boreal shield lake ecosystems to climatic forcing. In contrast, the pronounced change in the morphometry of the basin around 7000 cal yr BP had little effect on the trophic state of the lake. The human-induced trophic change during the past few decades has affected the Lake Päijänne ecosystem to an extent never experienced before during the last 8000-years.     

原生动物纤毛虫对太湖梅梁湾水质富营养化的响应

１９９３年４月－１９９４年１月研究了太湖梅梁湾湖区纤毛虫的群落分布,共检出７目１９属,根据ＴＳＩ指标,该湖区可分为富营养型和中营养型水域,在富营养型水域中分布着特有的纤毛虫种类。     

湖泊富营养化综合评价方法

从对湖泊富营养化评价的一般方法入手,综述了国内外有关湖泊富养化综合评价的一些方法,提出：营养状态指数法由于可对湖泊营养状态进行连续的数值化的分级,从而为湖泊富营养化机理的定量研究提供了坚实的基础,应是今后湖泊富营养化评价中的主要方法。     

中国湖泊营养类型的分类研究

对我国１３０余个主要湖泊的营养状况进行了分类研究。结果表明,目前处于协调营养型湖泊１１６个,占调查湖泊数量８７．９％,占调查湖泊面积的９６．０％;非协调营养型湖泊１６个,占调查湖泊数量１２．１％,占调查湖泊面积的４．０％;在协调营养型湖泊中,影响湖泊资料开发利用的主要障碍是;富营养化问题;非协调营养型湖泊中,主要是超营养化和盐碱化问题,它们有的已经严重地影响了湖区经济的发展,是我国当前亟待解决的重     

东太湖的环境质量现状调查评价

通过1990—1991年东太湖的水文、水质、底质和生物凋查,对其水质作出评价并探求营养现状。结果表明:东太湖的水质状况良好,营养状况已进入中富营养状态叶。     

武汉东湖主要湖区的藻类与营养型评价

对东湖９个湖区藻类的群落结构、生长潜力、初级生产力和营养状况进行了比较研究。结果表明,９个湖区藻类的种类组成无明显差异,绿藻为主,蓝藻和硅藻次之;藻类的生长潜力和初级生产力各湖区差异较大,均以茶港湾重污染区最高和牛巢湖最低。根据各项指标综合分析,９个湖区水质优劣的顺序是：牛巢湖、汤林湖、后湖、郭郑湖、菱角湖、筲箕湖、庙湖、喻家湖和茶港湾重污染区。对东湖的大水面郭郑湖４０年来藻类的有关参数进行比较发