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51.
There are increasing calls for conceptualizing adaptation as future pathways as a foresight tool for adaptation planning and implementation. To assist understanding of future adaptation pathways, this paper used ethnographic approaches to understand past pathways of response to major social and political change over the last seven decades in a rural Transylvanian community. The results identified five main socio-ethnic groups that had different pathways of response to key periods of change. These periods provided different constraints and opportunities, and shaped the accumulation and loss of different categories of assets for each socio-ethnic group. Findings show that adaptation is an ongoing process in which responses and decisions are patterned along multiple, socially contingent trajectories with continuities and legacies. Importantly, while the different groups had interrelated pathways, these were associated with a powerful normative pathway that was implicated in producing and reinforcing local social hierarchies. In this case, the normative pathway was a mix of practicing subsistence agriculture and small scale flexible income generation. The nuanced understanding of the change and response dynamics in the village provide important insights for anticipating responses to, and the impacts of, future change. It also highlights the need for holistic and multi-perspective approaches when developing and implementing adaptation pathways. These approaches should responsibly and carefully consider the implications of particular future paths for all concerned, but especially for those that are the most marginalized in society. 相似文献
52.
在具有相同储集砂体和相似断层输导情况下,牛庄洼陷沙三中亚段砂岩体油藏长期存在以下难以解释的现象:1)现今砂岩孔隙度分布与油气分布不一致,高孔隙砂岩不含油而低孔隙砂岩含油;2)相同物性砂岩有的含油而有的不含油,含油砂体现今物性接近,但含油级别却存在很大差异。本文从古孔隙度恢复方面分析了牛庄洼陷西部地区沙三中砂岩储层在成藏期的储集条件,并探讨了成藏期储层临界孔隙度。研究发现:1)虽然现今储层物性下限很低,部分砂岩已经致密化,但成藏期的古孔隙度分布在18%~25%范围内,远大于成藏期临界孔隙度13.9%。但由于埋藏过程的差异导致砂岩储层后期减孔幅度不同,因而现今储层物性不能反映成藏期储层物性,成藏期孔隙度高并不能代表现今孔隙度高;2)成藏期高孔隙度带与现今油气分布范围高度一致,表明在相似断层输导条件下,由于储层物性级差优势形成油气优势运移通道,导致高孔隙度带砂体含油,因此,沙三中亚段岩性油藏富集在成藏期高孔隙带中,成藏期砂岩古孔隙度是油气成藏的重要控制因素,而现今砂岩储层高孔隙带在成藏期并不一定高。牛庄洼陷西部地区沙三中亚段储层中具有高古孔隙度的砂岩仍有较大勘探潜力。 相似文献
53.
针对湖泊型饮用水源地水体污染、富营养化加剧的问题,引入熵值理论,建立单指标营养状态指数(TSI)和熵权藕合的湖泊综合营养状态指数模型(STSI),计算得到湖泊综合富营养状态指数判断湖泊富营养综合状态;基于神经网络仿真理论和Matlab软件系统,采用附加动量法和自适应学习速率改进BP算法,建立5-3-1结构型式的BP网络模型对湖泊富营养状态进行仿真预测。综合富营养化指数模型及改进BP模型应用于评价及预测固城湖富营养状态,并对模型评价结果进行验证。结果表明,改进BP网络模型可以有效地综合判断水体状态,为富营养评价及预测提供新的方法。 相似文献
54.
充分考虑热演化过程中烃源岩干酪根、族组分、固体沥青及正构烷烃碳同位素相互关系及变化规律,通过地球化学分析并结合前人碳同位素及芳烃标志物研究进行综合分析,结果表明古油藏各区域储层早期均存在下寒武统黑色泥岩来源,后期来源有较大差别,麻江古背斜以南各地沥青均不同程度与中寒武统都柳江组有关,北凯里液态原油及油苗为五峰组及龙马溪组印支期成藏产物,其保存环境为储层早期成岩过程中形成的独立封闭系统。在油源识别的基础上,结合构造地质背景、油气成藏条件及流体活动规律分析,认为黔南坳陷及邻区下寒武统、都柳江组、五峰组及龙马溪组烃源岩的分布控制了该区油气富集规律,黔南海西期断裂系统与加里东运动形成的不整合面构成不同期次油气运聚的输导系统,海西期形成的一系列正断裂是麻江古油藏成藏的关键。 相似文献
55.
The natural heterogeneity of water and solute movement in hillslope soils makes it difficult to accurately characterize the transport of surface‐applied pollutants without first gathering spatially distributed hydrological data. This study examined the application of time‐domain reflectometry (TDR) to measure solute transport in hillslopes. Three different plot designs were used to examine the transport of a conservative tracer in the first 50 cm of a moderately sloping soil. In the first plot, which was designed to examine spatial variability in vertical transport in a 1·2 m2 plot, a single probe per meter was found to adequately characterize vertical solute travel times. In addition, a dye and excavation study in this plot revealed lateral preferential flow in small macropores and a transport pattern where solute is focused vertically into preferential flow pathways. The bypass flow delivers solute deeper in the soil, where lateral flow occurs. The second plot, designed to capture both vertical and lateral flow, provided additional evidence confirming the flow patterns identified in the excavation of the first plot. The third plot was designed to examine lateral flow and once again preferential flow of the tracer was observed. In one instance rapid solute transport in this plot was estimated to occur in as little as 3% of the available pore space. Finally, it was demonstrated that the soil anisotropy, although partially responsible for lateral subsurface transport, may also homogenize the transport response across the hillslope by decreasing vertical solute spreading. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
56.
57.
Release of CO2 from surface ocean water owing to precipitation of CaCO3 and the imbalance between biological production of organic matter and its respiration, and their net removal from surface
water to sedimentary storage was studied by means of a quotient θ = (CO2 flux to the atmosphere)/(CaCO3 precipitated). θ depends not only on water temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration but also on the CaCO3 and organic carbon masses formed. In CO2 generation by CaCO3 precipitation, θ varies from a fraction of 0.44 to 0.79, increasing with decreasing temperature (25 to 5°C), increasing atmospheric
CO2 concentration (195–375 ppmv), and increasing CaCO3 precipitated mass (up to 45% of the initial DIC concentration in surface water). Primary production and net storage of organic
carbon counteracts the CO2 production by carbonate precipitation and it results in lower CO2 emissions from the surface layer. When atmospheric CO2 increases due to the ocean-to-atmosphere flux rather than remaining constant, the amount of CO2 transferred is a non-linear function of the surface layer thickness because of the back-pressure of the rising atmospheric
CO2. For a surface ocean layer approximated by a 50-m-thick euphotic zone that receives input of inorganic and organic carbon
from land, the calculated CO2 flux to the atmosphere is a function of the CaCO3 and Corg net storage rates. In general, the carbonate storage rate has been greater than that of organic carbon. The CO2 flux near the Last Glacial Maximum is 17 to 7×1012 mol/yr (0.2–0.08 Gt C/yr), reflecting the range of organic carbon storage rates in sediments, and for pre-industrial time
it is 38–42×1012 mol/yr (0.46–0.50 Gt C/yr). Within the imbalanced global carbon cycle, our estimates indicate that prior to anthropogenic
emissions of CO2 to the atmosphere the land organic reservoir was gaining carbon and the surface ocean was losing carbon, calcium, and total
alkalinity owing to the CaCO3 storage and consequent emission of CO2. These results are in agreement with the conclusions of a number of other investigators. As the CO2 uptake in mineral weathering is a major flux in the global carbon cycle, the CO2 weathering pathway that originates in the CO2 produced by remineralization of soil humus rather than by direct uptake from the atmosphere may reduce the relatively large
imbalances of the atmosphere and land organic reservoir at 102–104-year time scales. 相似文献
58.
We compare changes in low birth weight and child malnutrition in 13 African countries under projected climate change versus socio-economic development scenarios. Climate scenarios are created by linking surface temperature gradients with declines in seasonal rainfall sea along with warming values of 1 °C and 2 °C. Socio-economic scenarios are developed by assigning regionally specific changes in access to household electricity and mother's education. Using these scenarios, in combination with established models of children's health, we investigate and compare the changes in predicted health outcomes. We find that the negative effects of warming and drying on child stunting could be mitigated by positive development trends associated with increasing mothers’ educational status and household access to electricity. We find less potential for these trends to mitigate how warming and drying trends impact birth weights. In short, under warming and drying, the risk of more malnourished children is greater than the risk of more children with low birth weights, but increases in child malnutrition could be averted in regions that increase access to educational resources and basic infrastructure. 相似文献
59.
60.
Studies of global environmental change make extensive use of scenarios to explore how the future can evolve under a consistent set of assumptions. The recently developed Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) create a framework for the study of climate-related scenario outcomes. Their five narratives span a wide range of worlds that vary in their challenges for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Here we provide background on the quantification that has been selected to serve as the reference, or ‘marker’, implementation for SSP2. The SSP2 narrative describes a middle-of-the-road development in the mitigation and adaptation challenges space. We explain how the narrative has been translated into quantitative assumptions in the IIASA Integrated Assessment Modelling Framework. We show that our SSP2 marker implementation occupies a central position for key metrics along the mitigation and adaptation challenge dimensions. For many dimensions the SSP2 marker implementation also reflects an extension of the historical experience, particularly in terms of carbon and energy intensity improvements in its baseline. This leads to a steady emissions increase over the 21st century, with projected end-of-century warming nearing 4 °C relative to preindustrial levels. On the other hand, SSP2 also shows that global-mean temperature increase can be limited to below 2 °C, pending stringent climate policies throughout the world. The added value of the SSP2 marker implementation for the wider scientific community is that it can serve as a starting point to further explore integrated solutions for achieving multiple societal objectives in light of the climate adaptation and mitigation challenges that society could face over the 21st century. 相似文献