Experimental constraints on syneruptive magma ascent related to the phreatomagmatic phase of the 2000<Emphasis Type="SmallCaps">AD</Emphasis> eruption of Usu volcano,Japan

We experimentally studied the dacitic magma ejected during the first event in the Usu 2000 eruption to investigate the conditions of syneruptive magmatic ascent. Geophysical data revealed that the magma reached under West Nishiyama, the location of the event’s craters, after rising beneath the summit. Prior study of bubble-size distributions of ejecta shows two stages (stage 1 and stage 2) with different magma ascent rates, as the magma accelerated beneath West Nishiyama with the start of the second stage. To simulate ascent of stage 1 from the main reservoir, which was located at a depth of 4–6 km (125 MPa) to 2 km (50 MPa) beneath West Nishiyama, decompression experiments were conducted isothermally at 900°C following two paths. Single step decompression (SSD) samples were decompressed rapidly (0.67 MPa/s) to their final pressure and held for 12 to 144 hours. Multiple step decompression (MSD) samples were decompressed stepwise to their final pressure and quenched instantly. In MSD, the average decompression rates and total experimental durations varied between 0.01389 to 0.00015 MPa/s and 1.5 to 144 hours, respectively. Syneruptive crystallization was confined to stage 1, and the conditions of ascent were determined by documenting similarities in decompression-induced crystallization between ejecta and experiments. Core compositions, number densities, and shapes of experimental microlites indicate that ascent to 2 km depth occurred in less than 1.5 h. Volumes and number densities of experimental microlites from the SSD experiments that best replicate the decompression rate to 2 km indicate that the magma remained at 2 km for approximately 24 h before the eruption. Stagnation at a depth of 2 km corresponds with horizontal transport through a dike from beneath the summit to West Nishiyama, according to geodetic results. The total magma transport timescale including stage 2 is tens of hours and is shorter than the timescale of precursory seismicity (3.5 days), indicating that the erupted magma did not move out of the reservoir for the first 2 days. This is consistent with the temporal change in numbers of earthquakes, which reached a peak after 2 days.     

引发南宁市内涝的暴雨及风场特征

利用南宁市区内中尺度自动站及本站人工站观测降雨资料,分析致涝暴雨的临界雨量。利用实况探空资料重点分析和探讨了环境风场分布与触发机制,得到有益结论,为准确预报、防御内涝灾害提供参考依据。     

A conceptual framework for cross-border impacts of climate change

Climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability studies tend to confine their attention to impacts and responses within the same geographical region. However, this approach ignores cross-border climate change impacts that occur remotely from the location of their initial impact and that may severely disrupt societies and livelihoods. We propose a conceptual framework and accompanying nomenclature for describing and analysing such cross-border impacts. The conceptual framework distinguishes an initial impact that is caused by a climate trigger within a specific region. Downstream consequences of that impact propagate through an impact transmission system while adaptation responses to deal with the impact propagate through a response transmission system. A key to understanding cross-border impacts and responses is a recognition of different types of climate triggers, categories of cross-border impacts, the scales and dynamics of impact transmission, the targets and dynamics of responses and the socio-economic and environmental context that also encompasses factors and processes unrelated to climate change. These insights can then provide a basis for identifying relevant causal relationships. We apply the framework to the floods that affected industrial production in Thailand in 2011, and to projected Arctic sea ice decline, and demonstrate that the framework can usefully capture the complex system dynamics of cross-border climate impacts. It also provides a useful mechanism to identify and understand adaptation strategies and their potential consequences in the wider context of resilience planning. The cross-border dimensions of climate impacts could become increasingly important as climate changes intensify. We conclude that our framework will allow for these to be properly accounted for, help to identify new areas of empirical and model-based research and thereby support climate risk management.     

What is a Poor Quality Strong-Motion Record?

Some accelerograms are affected by non-standard recording and digitization problems that mean they are often not used in strong-motion studies. These non-standard problems cannot be corrected by the standard processing techniques that remove low and high-frequency noise from the time-history. Records from analogue instruments are more prone to these problems but even records from digital instruments, which are becoming increasingly common, can be affected by such errors. Since all strong-motion data is valuable it is important to know whether any useful information can be obtained from accelerograms that are affected by such problems. This article examines whether strong-motion records from analogue instruments that are missing their initial part due to late triggering of the instrument and also strong-motion records from digital instruments with low A/D converter resolution can be used for response spectral studies. It is found, by simulating such errors on high-quality strong-motion records, that good response spectral ordinates can be obtained from such `poor-quality' records within the period range of most engineering interest. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

冷涡底部一次弓状强飑线的演变和机理

综合利用多种观测资料和NCEP分析资料,分析了2016年6月30日发生在冷涡南部暖区的一次长生命史弓状飑线(以下简称飑线)的环境条件、触发、演变和维持机制以及预报难点。其发生环境条件为超过4000 J·kg~(-1)以上的对流有效位能(CAPE)、中等强度0～6 km垂直风切变,是超级单体形成和维持的有利条件;湿球温度0℃高度3. 6 km是有利大冰雹形成的融化层高度;整层相对干(对流层中层达28℃温度露点差)、大的垂直减温率和下沉对流有效位能(DCAPE)都是形成弓状回波和地面强风的有利条件。前期较大对流抑制能量(CIN)抑制了对流初生;随着地面温湿度增加CAPE显著增大、CIN减小,加之边界层辐合显著增强因而触发了对流。老的对流出流气流,环境低空西南气流增强为急流和上游的低空西北偏西气流增强了边界层辐合。飑线发展过程表现出以下特征:TBB演变表明飑线是由线状积云发展成为一个中尺度对流复合体,以正闪为主的闪电和地面大风主要分布于TBB低值处;可见光云图显示具有粗糙的纹理、显著的上冲云顶和旋转等特征;雷达反射率因子显示其由一个β中尺度线状对流系统发展成为一个α中尺度弓状飑线系统;成熟阶段具有显著的回波悬垂、有界弱回波区、中气旋、强中层后侧入流、后侧入流缺口、前侧入流缺口和中层径向速度辐合等特征,异常的垂直液态水含量值是产生大冰雹和雷暴大风的典型雷达回波特征;由于高层分流气流和其西侧不断有新生对流使其组织成非对称尖锥状。对流层中层大的温度露点差和强的后侧入流导致的强下沉辐散气流是形成弓状回波结构的主要原因。位于飑线前沿辐合区后侧的强前侧入流是飑线和弓状回波维持的主要原因。500 hPa风速初期偏弱后期增强、前期较大的CIN及后续迅速减小和抬升触发条件相对弱是该飑线的短期时效预报难点。     

2018年12号热带低压奇异路径分析

分析2018年第12号热带低压的奇异路径及其在广西强降雨落区产生的原因,分析表明:(1)12号热带低压路径为逆时针旋转,主要是由于副热带高压位置偏北,引导气流偏弱,低压先受到11号热带低压的互旋作用而产生了逆时针旋转的路径,登陆后由于11号热带低压减弱,对其影响也逐渐减弱,之后受到自身内力作用转向西北方向移动。(2)广西上空的热力和水汽条件均有利于对流发展,但桂东南由于缺少有利的动力条件和触发条件,没有强降雨产生。由于低压中心随高度向西南方向倾斜,导致垂直运动随低压中心向西南倾斜,使低压西南方处于大尺度上升运动处。而沿海和桂南一带处于偏北风和偏西风的辐合处,触发对流产生。强降雨云团在沿海被触发并发展,在低压西南方得到进一步发展,并随着低压转向西北方向移动,在广西的南部和中西部产生了强降水。     

用于地震预警的三维实时定位方法

为了尽快定位地震,在“着未着”定位算法基础上,尝试引入三维地壳模型,构建具有三维空间格点分布的走时表.根据已触发台站的到时和未触发台站的位置信息设计概率分布函数,通过八叉树搜索方法,快速给出震源在三维空间的可能位置.使用波前追踪算法,计算中国几个地区三维地壳模型的走时网格,利用中国地震台网资料,对区域内发生的地震进行定位分析.结果显示,在一定的台网密度条件下,三维实时定位方法能在震后数秒给出震源位置,可满足地震预警要求.     

Landslide Activity Maps for Landslide Hazard Evaluation: Three Case Studies from Southern Italy

This paper focuses on the application of landslideactivity maps for evaluating the mass movementhazard in selected areas of the Southern Apenninesof Italy: Bisaccia, Calitri, and Buoninventre. Theavailability of multi-year aerial photo coveragehelped to assess the morphological changes whichoccurred in the last 40 years. This information,integrated with historical data on slope instabilityand field checks, were used to produce landslideactivity maps. These maps represent a short-cut inthe assessment of mass movement hazard, because theyfocus on the effects of slope instability ratherthan on the causative conditions and processes;however, if kept simple and prepared at large scale,they may help the local administrators and land-useplanners to reduce the socio-economic costs oflandslides. Furthermore, the comparative study oflandslide activity represents a relativelyinexpensive and quick method for evaluating theperformance of the engineering control efforts.The quantification of landslide activity in terms ofareal frequency can represent an additional step,useful to determine the relative landslide hazard(zonation in more or less hazardous areas). Forexample, the estimates of areal frequency of activelandsliding for the last 40 years demonstrated thegreat influence of the 1980 Irpinia earthquake(M_s = 6.9) on the stability of slopes situatedclose to its epicenter (within a radius of about20 km).     

强震事件的在线预测技术——伽师-巴楚6.8级强震发生的后思考

20 0 3年 2月 2 4日新疆伽师--巴楚 6 .8级破坏性地震的发生 ,再次说明精细预测强震事件的重要性。本文以此次地震为例 ,提出一种预测地震事件的三要素新技术 ,即跟踪地震自激励演变信息预测震级大小、跟踪卫星遥感地表射出长波辐射 OL R信息预测地震危险区域、跟踪自然触发力因素信息预测临震时间。作者认为这种分要素、依序完成在线精细预测的方法是可行的。     

基于EQIM的地震应急自动触发软件设计与实现

针对地震应急快速响应、高效处置的现实需求,设计开发了基于地震速报信息共享服务系统(EQIM)的地震应急指挥技术系统自动触发软件。该软件实现了与EQIM数据库的无缝对接,可自动监控最新地震事件。当达到地震应急响应条件时,系统自动触发启动地震灾害快速评估系统、视频会议系统、指挥调度系统、中央控制系统等关键应急业务系统。通过实现整个应急指挥技术系统的自动启动及应急服务产品的自动产出,从而达到高效应急的目的。