岩体结构面强度的 Mohr—Coulomb破坏判据与 Barton破坏判据的试验对比

岩体结构面强度是工程岩体稳定性设计中的重要参数,目前工程上常用的两个强度判据,即Mohr-Coulomb准则和Barton准则有各自适用条件。本文在对七组具不同岩性、不同粗糙度及起伏度红层样品进行试验的基础上,探讨了在试验过程中所揭示的强度周期性变化现象,同时基于两准则试验数据,分析了它们之间的区别,获得一些重要结论.即JRC、JCS越大,两准则差别越大;在低法向应力下两准则较接近,在高法向应力时,MC准则偏于危险。     

Evaluation of the parameters affecting the roughness coefficient of sewer pipes with rigid and loose boundary conditions via kernel based approaches

One of the important issues in water transport and sewer systems is determining the flow resistance and roughness coefficient.An accurate estimation of the roughness coefficient is a substantial issue in the design and operation of hydraulic structures such as sewer pipes,the calculation of water depth and flow velocity,and the accurate characterization of energy losses.The current study,applies two kernel based approaches [Support Vector Machine(SVM) and Gaussian Process Regression(GPR)] to develop roughness coefficient models for sewer pipes.In the modeling process,two types of sewer bed conditions were considered:loose bed and rigid bed.In order to develop the models,different input combinations were considered under three scenarios(Scenario 1:based on hydraulic characteristics,Scenarios2 and 3:based on hydraulic and sediment characteristics with and without considering sediment concentration as input).The results proved the capability of the kernel based approaches in prediction of the roughness coefficient and it was found that for prediction of this parameter in sewer pipes Scenario 3 performed better than Scenarios 1 and 2.Also,the sensitivity analysis results showed that Dgr(Dimensionless particle number) for a rigid bed and w_b/y(ratio of deposited bed width,w_b,to flow depth,y) for a loose bed had the most significant impact on the modeling process.     

结构面粗糙度统计测量最小样本数确定方法

由于结构面粗糙度具有各质异性、各向异性、非均一性和尺寸效应等特征，结构面粗糙度系数（JRC）取值具有不确定性，工程中广泛采用统计方法来分析结构面粗糙度性质，然而以往研究往往忽略样本数不足对统计结果的影响。针对结构面粗糙度统计测量时无法确定合理样本数的问题，分别提出基于变异系数级比分析及简单随机抽样原理的最小样本数确定方法。以实际工程岩体结构面表面数据为研究对象，对比分析两种方法在系列尺寸下确定的统计测量最小样本数。实例分析表明：小尺寸样本的变异系数（CV）值明显大于大尺寸样本，且CV值随取样尺寸的增大而减小，取样尺寸为10～50 cm的CV值基本稳定在0.31～0.47之间，取样尺寸为60～100 cm的CV值基本稳定在0.21～0.31之间；最小样本数与取样尺寸基本满足幂函数关系，且最小样本数随取样尺寸的增大而减少；系列尺寸下级比分析方法在允许误差为±2%时确定的最小样本数与简单随机抽样原理在最大允许误差为10%、置信度为95%时计算的最小样本数是一致的，相似度大于0.997。该研究方法可为工程岩体中定量获取结构面粗糙度统计测量最小样本数提供依据，保证了JRC（结构面粗糙度系数）统计测量结果的准确性，对工程岩体稳定性评价中结构面力学参数的准确获取具有重要意义。     

多孔介质中溶质有效扩散系数预测的分形模型

依据分形理论和方法,探索溶质在多孔介质中的有效扩散系数的替代预测方法。在多孔介质溶质扩散的弯曲毛细管束模型的基础上,以分形维数作为介质的基本几何特性参数,建立了多孔介质中溶质扩散的分形毛细管束模型,推导出了溶质有效扩散系数与介质孔隙度之间的幂定律关系式,幂指数是介质孔隙分维和表面分维的函数,反映了介质孔隙体积的层次分布与孔隙通道曲折程度对扩散的影响。对粘性土的分形维数测定数据和有效扩散系数试验测定数据的分析表明,利用该关系式预测多孔介质中溶质的有效扩散系数是较为准确可靠的。     

中国大陆西部及邻区各地震活动区地震活动关系研究

利用相关函数分析方法对1900年以来缅甸转换构造区、滇西南旋转构造域和兴都库什中深源地震区的7．0级以上地震与中国大陆西部及邻区的其它各地震活动区7．0级以上地震的相互关系进行研究。结果表明：缅甸转换构造区、滇西南旋转构造域和兴都库什中深源地震区的地震活动与其它各地震活动区的地震活动在时间和空间上存在一定的对应关系。这一结果对中国大陆西部及邻区强震的预报有一定的意义。     

地震活动涨落、自组织结构和大震临界状态的统计特征

根据非线性动力学理论、运用概率论与数理统计方法,对非平衡地震发生系统的空间分布状态进行了研究。提出用空间变异系数δV判断涨落类型:凝聚集、群集、泊松型和均匀点阵分布。从整体观点综合应用各统计量即协方差μ11、非负量I(x,y)、联合信息熵H(x,y)、离散度σ和δV,对非平衡系统的群体空间自组织结构和临界状态的统计特征做了进一步的探讨。根据首都圈公元前231年～2003年M≥434地震活动及其和华北不同范围ML≥3.0地震活动涨落的统计分析认为,μ11≈0,I(x,y)>0,高H(x,y)值,低σ和δV值是强震和大震发生的自组织空间结构和临界现象的基本特征和必要条件。同时对地震空区、条带、前兆性震群及前震等前兆现象成因提出了新的观点和统计解释,并得出结论:仅当一个远离平衡态的系统(区域)有足够的随机性而又非泊松型涨落时,系统的突变(大震)是不可逆转的。     

Groundwater demand management at local scale in rural areas of India: a strategy to ensure water well sustainability based on aquifer diffusivity and community participation

Watershed development programmes provide an opportunity for sustainable management strategies, although currently, they remain largely supply-side mechanisms of water resources development. Hydrogeological conditions, community participation and status of groundwater usage are important in evolving strategies on demand-side groundwater management.Neemkheda aquifer is a typical low-storage, low-hydraulic conductivity aquifer from a watershed in the dryland regions of Madhya Pradesh State of central India. A shallow unconfined aquifer, it consists of an upper coarse, calcareous sandstone unit underlain by a fine-grained sandstone unit. A well commune of seven wells is poised to test the concept of joint groundwater management, wherein wells are mechanisms of tapping a common water source, the Neemkheda aquifer.The strategy for systematic groundwater management in the Neemkheda well commune is based upon the relationship between Transmissivity (T) and Storage coefficient (S), i.e. aquifer diffusivity, and its variation within the aquifer. Wells within a high diffusivity domain tend to dewater more quickly than wells within a low diffusivity domain. A well-use schedule during the dry season, based upon aquifer diffusivity forms the basis of the groundwater management concept. The distribution of local aquifer diffusivities governs the relationship between local and regional aquifer depletion times and forms the basis of the groundwater management exercise being proposed for the Neemkheda aquifer.

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Resumen Los programas de desarrollo de una cuenca hídrica son una oportunidad para el uso de estrategias de gestión sostenible, aunque hoy en día estas siguen siendo principalmente mecanismos para el desarrollo de recursos hídricos con énfasis en la oferta. Las condiciones hidrogeológicas, la participación comunitaria y la condición de utilización del agua subterránea, son importantes en el desarrollo de estrategias para la gestión del agua subterránea, desde el punto de vista de la demanda.El acuífero de Neemkheda es un acuífero típico de almacenamiento bajo y conductividad hidráulica baja, perteneciente a una cuenca hídrica ubicada en las regiones secas del Estado de Madhya Pradesh, en la parte central de India. Un acuífero de tipo libre, somero, formado por una unidad superior de arenisca calcárea de grano grueso, subyacida por una unidad de arenisca de grano fino.Un campo de pozos comunitario compuesto por siete pozos, pone a prueba el concepto de gestión conjunta del agua subterránea, dentro del cual los pozos son mecanismos para usar una fuente de agua común: El acuífero de Neemkheda.La estrategia usada para la gestión sistemática del agua subterránea, en el campo de pozos comunitario de Neemkheda, se basa en la relación existente entre Transmisividad (T) y Coeficiente de Almacenamiento (S), es decir en la Difusividad del Acuífero y en su variación observada dentro del mismo acuífero. Los pozos cuya difusividad esta dentro de un rango alto, tienden a experimentar un descenso en su nivel mas rápidamente que aquellos pozos con una difusividad baja. El concepto de gestión de agua subterránea se basa en un programa especial de operación para cada pozo durante la estación seca, el cual a su vez se basa en la difusividad del acuífero. La distribución de difusividades locales del acuífero rige las relaciones entre las épocas de descensos de nivel en el acuífero a escala regional y local, y además constituyen la base del ejercicio de la gestión del agua subterránea que se esta proponiendo para el acuífero de Neemkheda.

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Résumé Les programmes de développement des bassins versants offrent une occasion de développer des stratégies pour une gestion durable, bien qu à présent elles restent en grande mesure le terme source dans le mécanisme de développement de la ressource en eau. Les conditions hydrogéologiques, la participation de la communauté et lusage des eaux souterraines sont importants pour le terme demande dans les stratégies de gestion des eaux souterraines. Laquifère de Neemkheda presents des caractéristiques typiques pour un bassin versant dans les régions arides de létat Madhya Pradesh de lInde centrale en ce qui concerne les faible valeurs de la conductivité hydraulique et du coéfficient demmagasinement. Il sagit dun aquifère phrèatique dont la partie supérieure est constitué par des grès calcaire qui restent sur des grés plus fins. Afin dessayer le concept de gestion integrée, on a réalisé dans laquifère de Neemkheda un captage ayant sept forages qui forment la ressource en eau communale. La stratégie de la gestion systématique du captage est basée sur la relation entre la transmissivité (T), le coéfficient demmagasinement (S), donc la diffusivité hydraulique ainsi que sa variation spatiale. Les puits forés dans les zones à grande diffusivité tendent à sassècher plus vite que ceux creusés dans des zones à faible diffusivité. Le concept de la gestion des eaux souterraines est donc basé sur la distribution spatiale des diffusivités. À partir de ce concept on a développé un programme dexploitation des forages pendant les saisons sèches. La relation entre les temps d épuissment locaux et régionaux est determiné par la distribution spatiale de la diffusivitée et forme la base de lexercice sur la gestion des eaux proposée pour laquifère de Neemkheda.

     

Dynamic behavior of single-layer latticed cylindrical shells subjected to seismic loading

The single-layer latticed cylindrical shell is one of the most widely adopted space-framed structures. In this paper, free vibration properties and dynamic response to horizontal and vertical seismic waves of single-layer latticed cylindrical shells are analyzed by the finite clement method using ANSYS software. In the numerical study, where hundreds of cases were analyzed, the parameters considered included rise-span ratio, length-span ratio, surface load and member section size. Moreover, to better define the actual behavior of single-layer latticed shells, the study is focused on the dynamic stress response to both axial forces and bending moments. Based on the numerical results, the effects of the parameters considered on the stresses are discussed and a modified seismic force coefficient method is suggested. In addition, some advice based on these rescarch results is presented to help in the future design of such structures.     

星载SAR图像的稻田耕地系数实验研究

农田线性地物在SAR图像上的夸大表现,对基于SAR图像进行的农作物面积精确量算会产生一定的影响。本研究利用SAR图像提取了稻田沟渠、道路及田埂等线性地物,在实地和图像上分别进行了大量的测算,分析了图像上的夸大与相对方向角之间的关系,计算了线性地物半波亮度宽度的概率分布,以及稻田线性地物的耕地系数,为精确量算稻田面积提供了科学依据,并对进一步研究提出了建议。     

A new way to predict forecast skill

Forecast skill (Anomaly Correlated Coefficient, ACC) is a quantity to show the forecast quality of the products of numerical weather forecasting models. Predicting forecast skill, which is the foundation of ensemble forecasting, means submitting products to predict their forecast quality before they are used.Checking the reason is to understand the predictability for the real cases. This kind of forecasting service has been put into operational use by statistical methods previously at the National Meteorological Center (NMC), USA (now called the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)) and European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). However, this kind of service is far from satisfactory because only a single variable is used with the statistical method. In this paper, a new way based on the Grey Control Theory with multiple predictors to predict forecast skill of forecast products of the T42L9 of the NMC, China Meteorological Administration (CMA) is introduced. The results show: (1) The correlation coefficients between “forecasted“ and real forecast skill range from 0.56 to 0.7 at different seasons during the two-year period. (2) The grey forecasting model GM(1,8) forecasts successfully the high peaks, the increasing or decreasing tendency, and the turning points of the change of forecast skill of cases from 5 January 1990 to 29 February 1992.