1990—2019年新疆不同等级风灾变化特征

风灾对新疆农牧业生产造成极大危害。本研究以风灾造成的倒塌房屋数、倒塌棚圈数、死亡人数、农作物受灾面积、损坏大棚数、牲畜死亡数作为6大灾情要素,运用比值权重和无量纲化线性求和方法构建表达风灾事件强弱的灾损指数,并采用百分位数法将风灾事件的强度划分为一般（1级）、较重（2级）、严重（3级）、特重（4级）4个等级。根据灾损指数和灾害等级,研究新疆风灾的时空变化特征。结果表明：新疆风灾集中于4—5月,南疆多于北疆,吐鲁番盆地和塔里木盆地北部是风灾的多发区和重发区;近30年风灾年出现次数呈显著的线性增加趋势,年灾损指数没有表现出线性增加或减少的变化趋势,其中1～4级风灾的年际变化具有明显的差异性;引发1～4级风灾的极大风速阈值分别为12.9、13.7、14.1、15.0 m〖DK〗·s-1;超过12.9 m〖DK〗·s-1极大风速出现日数逐年增多,加之农牧业生产快速发展,导致风灾年出现次数不断增加。     

地震工程研究的科学大平台

始于十九世纪末的地震工程研究,在其100多年的历史中积累了大量的理论和实践经验,随之而建设起来的各类地震工程实验设施分布于世界各地。近20年来,信息技术的飞速发展使得分布于世界各地的实验设施通过网络实现协同实验和资源共享。基于以上的信息,为了更好更快地和国际接轨,本文提出了建设一个地震工程研究领域的科学大平台设想。这个大平台包括三个方面的内容:数值模拟,网络协同实验系统和基础信息系统,将形成本领域开放性的综合科学平台。在数值模拟方面,这个科学平台将利用最新的信息技术将本领域的科学研究结果和方法集成起来,形成一个模块式的科学研究平台系统。在网络协同实验方面,将采纳美国NEES的思路,并对其改进和提高之后应用于中国。在基础数据方面,将利用最为先进的数据仓储技术,建设一个可以服务于地震工程科学研究的数据平台。最后,文章给出了建设这个科学平台的规划,以及目前的进展和资金支持等情况。     

天津市地面沉降的特征及其危害

天津是我国北方地面沉降最严重的城市之一,40余年的持续沉降不仅直接造成对安全高程、市政基础设施、房屋等建筑物的破坏,而且还通过安全高程的损失加剧了其他自然灾害的发生,使社会经济遭受严重损失.正确认识天津市地面沉降的特点及其危害,有利于控沉部门制定科学而有效的地面沉降减灾防灾政策和措施.基于对地面沉降所造成的危害分析和阐述,认为不合理开发地下流体资源是导致天津市地面沉降的主要原因,并提出相应预防和治理地面沉降的对策.     

2006年国外灾害地震综述

2006年地震活动水平和地震灾害程度均低于往年.地震活动总量相当于过去百年期间平均值的50～70%.外电报道比较有影响的灾害地震19次,死亡超过6900人,伤超过4万人.伤亡人数相当于过去百年期间年平均的37%.较大灾害地震6次.有2次在印度尼西亚,1次在伊朗,1次在夏威夷群岛,中国台湾1次"双震",破坏海底光缆,国际通讯联络一时中断,是世界少有的地震破坏海底光缆事件.     

An approach to the modeling of viscoelastic damage. Application to the long‐term creep of gypsum rock materials

A three‐dimensional phenomenological model is developed to describe the long‐term creep of gypsum rock materials. The approach is based on the framework of continuum damage mechanics where coupling with viscoelasticity is adopted. Specifically, a local damage model based on the concept of yield surface is proposed and deeply investigated. Among the many possibilities, we choose in this work its coupling with a generalized Kelvin–Voigt rheological model to formulate the whole behavior. Long‐term as well as short‐term relaxation processes can be integrated in the model by means of as many as necessary viscoelastic processes. The numerical discretization is described for an easy integration within a finite element procedure. Finally, a set of numerical simulations is given to show the possibilities of the presented model. It shows good agreement with some experimental results found in the literature. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

1987年9月19日富蕴北5.8级地震

1987年6月19日新疆富蕴县可可托海镇西北发生了Ms=5.8级地震,震中位于喀依尔提河与阿拉散河交汇处,震中烈度为Ⅶ度,等震线长轴方向与可可托海——二台断裂基本一致。震中区人员无伤亡,仅有山石滚落;Ⅵ、Ⅴ度区内的土平房、有不同程度的损坏个别砖平房,楼房出现裂缝。这次地震属于孤立型地震,震前有中短期异常。     

The System Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Rock Slopes

The principal of preferred plane analysis is a new research view and model of rock slope engineering geology. It advocates that the rock slope stability, boundary conditions and failure model are controlled by preferred planes. Therefore, the problem of slope stability evaluation can be converted into the search for preferred planes and determination of preferred separating bodies. The organic combination of the deterministic model and the indeterministic model can be realized by applying the systems engineering principle and the research model and method of reliability analysis in the quantitative evaluation and prediction of rock slope stability. Finally, the paper presents the case studies of slopes of the Yangtze Gorge Project and the Ma'anshan openpit mine.     

1989 Datong-Yanggao Earthquake with Ms=6.1

In this paper,the basic conditions and characteristics of the Datong-Yanggao earthquake are described in detail.The type of the earthquake,the aftershock activity,the earthquake trend,the characteristics of damage are analyzed and discussed.This earthquake belongs to a sequence of earthquake swarm type and is of the concentratedly occurring characteristics of several main shocks in a time sequence,and the aftershock activity was normally attenuated.Because of the unreasonable design of buildings and repeated vibration by several destructive main shocks within a short period,the damage in the high intensity region was aggravated.The analysis and the prediction procedure of the 1991 Datong-Yanggao earthquake(Ms=5.8)are also briefly given.     

江汉平原渍涝灾害遥感的初步研究

提出了采用遥感技术与地理信息系统结合研究渍涝灾害的方案,其内容包括:(1)信息源选择与信息处理1(2)清访机理与灾情分析;(3)灾情预报与防治决策.讨论了实施技术系统的基本功能:(1)图像与数据处理1(2)基本信息的提取与分析,(3)损失分析模型与预报模型.作为本方案论证的一部分,还介绍了笔者近期在这一领域中的部分研究成果.