基于连续损伤的水平井射孔-近井筒三维破裂模拟

射孔作为井筒与储层之间的液流通道,是水力压裂过程中的重要可控性参数。为研究水平井射孔-近井筒破裂机制,采用岩层变形-流体渗流方程描述应力状态变化,应用连续损伤破裂单元表征三维破裂位置与形态演化,并开发有限元求解程序模拟分析了射孔对水平井初始破裂压力、破裂位置及近井筒裂缝复杂性的调控作用。通过与解析模型及射孔压裂物理模型试验结果对比,验证了模型及有限元程序的有效性;水平井破裂压力数值分析结果与现场测试数据吻合较好。研究表明：射孔可调控水平井破裂压力与初始破裂位置,同时对近井筒区域裂缝扩展形态影响显著。通过优化射孔参数可以引导初始破裂向最优破裂面扩展、有效降低破裂压力,减小由于螺旋射孔空间排布引起的水平井近井筒裂缝迂曲与复杂程度,提高致密油气藏压裂改造效果。     

考虑含水合物沉积物损伤的多场耦合模型研究

天然气水合物是一种新型的清洁能源,具有广阔的应用前景。但在水合物开采过程中温压条件的改变会引起水合物的分解,导致含水合物沉积物胶结强度的丧失;同时,沉积物在加载过程中由于其内部微裂纹、缺陷逐渐扩展以及土颗粒间的水合物逐渐破碎也会引发含水合物沉积物的损伤,而以往对于水合物分解过程中多场耦合模型的研究忽略了沉积物结构损伤演化过程及其对耦合过程的影响。因此,基于连续损伤理论,在损伤统计本构模型中引入三参数的Weibull分布和残余强度修正系数,建立起考虑损伤阈值和残余强度影响的含水合物沉积物损伤统计本构模型;进而将本构模型嵌入到水合物分解过程的多场耦合模型中,建立了考虑含水合物沉积物损伤的温度-应力-渗流-化学（THMC）多场耦合数学模型;基于该模型讨论了含水合物沉积物结构损伤对水合物分解过程中沉积物储层的变形、压力、温度等因素的影响规律。通过计算分析发现：含水合物沉积物结构损伤对水合物分解的多场耦合过程具有显著影响,并且随着分解时间的增加,其影响逐渐增大。     

Crack nucleation in saturated porous media

Crack nucleation has been the subject of important contributions in the last two last decades. However, it seems that few attention has been granted to the case of saturated porous media. This is the question addressed in the present paper which is devoted to nucleation in traction mode. From a physical point of view, nucleation is a sudden phenomenon, so that the material response is both adiabatic and undrained. In the spirit of the variational approach, the nucleated crack is viewed as the final state of a region of space in which the material undergoes a full damage process. In traction mode, the opening of a saturated crack in undrained condition induces a drop of fluid pressure. In case of low fluid compressibility, the presence of the fluid delays the brittle failure usually associated with nucleation, as long as the fluid pressure remains above the saturation vapor pressure. Nucleation is therefore possible only if a partial vaporization of the fluid takes place.     

Hydrological and hydrodynamic modeling for flood damage mitigation in Brahmani–Baitarani River Basin,India

Stream flow forecast and its inundation simulations prior to the event are an effective and non-structural method of flood damage mitigation. In this paper, a continuous simulation hydrological and hydrodynamic model was developed for stream flow forecast and for spatial inundation simulation in Brahmani–Baitarani river basin, India. The hydrologic modelling approach includes rainfall-run-off modelling, flow routing, calibration and validation of the model with the field discharge data. CARTOSAT Digital Elevation Model of 30 m resolution, land use/land cover derived from the Indian Remote Sensing Satellite (IRS-P6) AWiFS and soil textural data of the study area were used in the modelling to compute topographic and hydraulic parameters. The hydrological model was calibrated with the help of field observed discharge data of 2006 and 2009 and validated with the data of 2008 and 2011. From the results, it is found that computed discharges are very well matching well with the observed discharges. The developed model can provide the stream flow forecast with more than 30 h lead time. Possible flood inundations were simulated using hydrodynamic modelling approach. CARTO Digital Elevation Model of 10 m resolution, landuse and the computed flood hydrographs were used in inundation simulations.     

图割能量驱动的高分辨率遥感影像震害损毁建筑物检测

为充分利用高分辨率遥感影像提供的细节信息,提高震害损毁建筑物检测精度,提出了一种图割框架下融合形状、边缘、角点等多种类型特征的损毁建筑物检测方法。该方法首先利用震前建筑物线划图提取包含单个建筑物的局部影像,用于图割能量函数建模,并分别根据建筑物的位置、形状、边缘以及角点构造能量函数的各约束项。在此基础上,通过最大流/最小割算法求解能量函数最小值,依据最小割能量进行地震前后局部影像中建筑物的相似性度量。最后利用最大期望算法(expectation maximization,EM)求得最小割能量的分类阈值,并根据错分率估值执行后处理以获得最终变化检测结果。采用2011年3月11日东日本大地震前后石卷港的高分辨率遥感影像进行试验,结果表明本文提出的方法能有效检测出损毁建筑物。     

采动区旧址文物类建筑物评价方法

针对采动区旧址文物类建(构)筑物的特殊性,文章提出采动影响下旧址文物类建(构)筑物损坏的多因素单一综合评价方法。以安源煤矿革命旧址建(构)筑物为研究对象,系统分析了革命旧址建(构)筑物的损坏原因,并确定相应的评价指标,采用加权平均法对建(构)筑物的损害进行综合评价分析。结果表明,评价结果与实际损坏程度相符,反映了革命旧址建(构)筑物不同于普通结构建筑物的特殊性,为采动区旧址文物类建(构)筑物损坏的评价方法提供新的途径。     

江西省早稻雨洗花灾害指标构建与灾损评估

构建早稻雨洗花灾害指标及适于早稻产量估算的灾损评估模型,对开展早稻雨洗花灾害监测、损失评估、灾害保险等具有重要意义。该文以江西省早稻为研究对象,利用1981-2015年14个水稻气象观测站逐日气象资料和农业气象观测资料,筛选出基于早稻抽穗扬花期间过程降水量、最大降水量、降水日数及实际产量的雨洗花灾害样本78个,在此基础上,利用相关分析、正态分布以及主成分回归法,建立了雨洗花灾害指标和灾损评估模型,并对其进行验证。结果表明:抽穗扬花期降水对雨洗花灾害形成有显著影响,其主要影响时段为抽穗扬花普遍期前后5 d内,关键时段为抽穗扬花普遍期前后3 d内。日降水量40 mm可作为早稻抽穗扬花期雨洗花灾害临界指标。以该指标为基础,统计日降水量不低于40 mm的降水日数及其对应的累积降水量,当累积降水量为40~170 mm时,为轻度雨洗花灾害,早稻一般减产小于15%,平均减产10%;当累积降水量不小于170 mm时,为重度雨洗花灾害,早稻一般减产不低于15%,平均减产22%。指标验证结果与历史实际灾害发生情况有较好的一致性。雨洗花灾损评估模型检验结果表明:雨洗花年模拟产量与实际产量吻合度较高,平均相对模拟误差为4.3%,78.0%的资料相对误差在5%以内,可利用该模型对雨洗花年的早稻减产率进行模拟和预测。     

Financing loss and damage: reviewing options under the Warsaw International Mechanism

After decades of pressure from vulnerable developing countries, the Warsaw International Mechanism on Loss and Damage (the WIM) was established at the nineteenth Conference of the Parties (COP 19) in 2013 to address costly damages from climate change. However, little progress has been made towards establishing a mechanism to fund loss and damage. The WIM's Executive Committee issued its first two-year workplan the following year at COP 20 which offered, among other things, a range of approaches to financing loss and damage programmes, which we review here. We provide brief overviews of each mechanism proposed by the WIM ExCom, describe their current applications, their statuses under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), some of their advantages and disadvantages, and their current or potential application to loss and damage. We find that several of these mechanisms may be useful in supporting loss and damage programmes, but identify some key gaps. First, most of the mechanisms identified by the WIM ExCom are insurance schemes subsidized with voluntary contributions, which may not be adequate or reliable over time. Second, none were devised to apply to slow-onset events, or to non-economic losses and damages. That is, if harms are inflicted on parts of a society or its ecosystems that have no price, or if they occur gradually, they would probably not be covered by these mechanisms. Finally, the lack of a dedicated and adequate flow of finance to address the real loss and damage being experienced by vulnerable nations will require the use of innovative financial tools beyond those mentioned in the WIM ExCom workplan.

Key policy insights

• Despite a full article of the 2015 Paris Agreement devoted to loss and damage, there is little international agreement on the scope of loss and damage programmes, and especially how they would be funded and by whom.

• Most of the loss and damage funding mechanisms identified by the WIM ExCom are insurance schemes subsidized with voluntary contributions, which may burden the most vulnerable countries and may not be reliable over time.

• None of the mechanisms were devised to apply to slow-onset events, or to non-economic losses and damages.

     

西南山地滑坡灾害生态风险评价——以大理白族自治州为例

本文以云南省大理白族自治州为例,综合考量生态风险源、受体、暴露响应过程及生态终点,采用信息量模型评估滑坡灾害危险性,基于景观格局指数表征生态脆弱性,并将生态系统服务纳入风险损失的定量表征,定量评估流域滑坡灾害生态风险。结果表明：① 低于1800 m高程、15°~25°坡度、小于0.31植被覆盖指数等10方面因素构成了诱发大理州滑坡灾害的最佳信息量组合,全州普遍处于滑坡灾害危险性中高水平,且西北低、东南高;② 生态脆弱性高值区主要集中在红河流域南部、金沙江流域东南部、澜沧江流域中部;③ 低生态损失流域的水源涵养、粮食供给服务相对较差,生态损失中等流域的净初级生产、土壤保持服务优势明显,高生态损失流域则具有较强的粮食供给和水源涵养服务;④ 基于高中低3种生态风险等级和“高危险—低脆弱—低损失”等8种风险结构,全州367个小流域可划分出避让监测预警区、生态保护恢复区、避让保护兼顾区、自然适应调控区等4种风险防范类型区。     

Evaluating the influence of mixture composition on the kinetics of salt damage in wall paintings using time lapse video imaging with direct data annotation

This paper presents an examination of the timescale of phase transition behaviour of a series of salts known to cause damage to wall paintings and other cultural property. The rate of deliquescence and crystallisation of single salts (nitromagnesite and halite) under different RH regimes, and the extent to which this was affected when mixed with other salts (niter, nitratite and gypsum), was investigated. The study was conducted using simple conventional techniques (mass measurements over time) and also using an innovative new method: timelapse video imaging with online data annotation. The results demonstrate the synergy gained from combining video imaging with environmental data in reference to time in the study of salt phase changes: where it revealed new information concerning the kinetics of deliquescence and crystallisation. The implications of these results for the implementation of environmental control measures within historic buildings are discussed.