新疆额尔宾山花岗岩侵位年龄和成因及其对南天山洋闭合时代的限定

额尔宾山花岗岩岩体位于南天山晚古生代侵入岩带,对该花岗岩进行锆石U-Pb定年获得296.1±1.8Ma的年龄,为早二叠世。岩石主量元素分析结果表明,该花岗岩的Si O2含量为66.96%~67.3%,富碱(Na2O+K2O=7.53%~7.97%),K2O/Na2O1(1.15~1.27),属高钾钙碱性系列岩石;Al2O3为15.56%~15.62%,Al2O3K2O+Na2O+Ca O,属于过铝型。岩石稀土元素配分模式呈现轻稀土元素(LREE)富集((La/Yb)N=27.03~30.62)、重稀土元素(HREE)亏损((LREE/HREE)=18.2~20.1)、具有中等程度的负Eu异常(δEu=0.64~0.68)。微量元素判别结果显示,其具有I-A型花岗岩过渡的特征。结合区域地质背景综合分析,初步认定该岩体可能形成于南天山同碰撞向后碰撞构造体制转换时期,据此可以推测南天山洋盆闭合时限至少应该在早二叠世以前。     

应用两次展开法求解系泊柱体慢漂运动方程

在深海中系泊的海洋平台,如Spar平台,水下部分为带有系泊的圆柱结构,其水平方向运动响应往往具有较低的自振频率,容易在低频波浪力(源于非线性的差频效应)作用下发生共振响应,使结构发生大幅水平慢漂。当浮体的瞬时位置大幅偏离初始位置时,基于初始平衡位置的摄动展开法会存在较大误差。针对这一问题,采用两次展开方法,对大幅慢漂运动开展时域模拟研究。对双色波作用下自由漂浮圆柱的大幅运动响应问题进行数值分析,并与采用基于初始平衡位置的摄动展开法的计算结果进行了对比。结果表明,采用新的两次展开法可以计算出波浪遭遇频率的变化和波浪漂移阻尼,而这无法从基于初始平衡位置的常规摄动展开法中得到,体现了两次展开法在分析大幅慢漂问题上的优势。     

Metallogeny of the Baiyangping Lead‐Zinc Polymetallic Ore Concentration Area,Northern Lanping Basin of Yunnan Province,China

The Lanping Basin in the Nujiang‐Lancangjiang‐Jinshajiang (the Sanjiang) area of northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau is an important part of eastern Tethyan metallogenic domain. This basin hosts a number of large unique sediment‐hosted Pb‐Zn polymetallic deposits or ore districts, such as the Baiyangping ore concentration area which is one of the representative ore district. The Baiyangping ore concentration area can be divided into the east and west ore belts, which were formed in a folded tectogene of the India‐Asia continental collisional setting and was controlled by a large reverse fault. Field observations reveal that the Mesozoic and Cenozoic sedimentary strata were outcropped in the mining area, and that the orebodies are obviously controlled by faults and hosted in sandstone and carbonate rocks. However, the ore‐forming elements in the east ore belt are mainly Pb‐Zn‐Sr‐Ag, while Pb‐Zn‐Ag‐Cu‐Co elements are dominant in the west ore belt. Comparative analysis of the C‐O‐Sr‐S‐Pb isotopic compositions suggest that both ore belts had a homogeneous carbon source, and the carbon in hydrothermal calcite is derived from the dissolution of carbonate rock strata; the ore‐forming fluids were originated from formation water and precipitate water, which belonged to basin brine fluid system; sulfur was from organic thermal chemical sulfate reduction and biological sulfate reduction; the metal mineralization material was from sedimentary strata and basement, but the difference of the material source of the basement and the strata and the superimposed mineralization of the west ore belt resulted in the difference of metallogenic elements between the eastern and western metallogenic belts. The Pb‐Zn mineralization age of both ore belts was contemporary and formed in the same metallogenetic event. Both thrust formed at the same time and occurred at the Early Oligocene, which is consistent with the age constrained by field geological relationship.     

用化石天长计算地球年龄的方法及意义——如何理解地球年龄

天长（一天时长）是地球自转速度的直接反映。古生代-中生代化石记录的天长数据表明,古生代-中生代期间的天长随时间呈线性增加。根据角动量守恒定律,这意味着同时段地球自转速度呈线性衰减。如果把这个趋势应用于地球历史的全过程,计算结果为4.519～4.495 Ga,与目前公认的地球绝对年龄4.54 Ga一致。这意味着,从这个时间点起,地球有一种自转速度衰减的总趋势。地球自转速度衰减年龄等值于地球年龄说明：1）所测量的陨石样本生成的时间（表征地球年龄）与地球受月球吸引形成自转减速的时间几乎相同。这意味着地-月体系形成之前的地球比该陨石表征的地球年龄更为古老。2）地球、月球、自转速度衰减时长,三者的年龄呈现等值状态,因而此结果与月球起源于大碰撞的假说可以匹配。     

基于小波分析与Mann-Kendall法的岩溶大泉动态研究

研究地下水动态是认识地下水资源的有效手段。根据1956－2013年济南岩溶泉域大气降水及地下水水位动态监测资料,采用小波分析法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验、突变检验法研究了58个水文年泉水位对大气降水的响应,可以看出:（1）大气降水和泉水位呈现出多尺度的变化特征,长时间尺度上两者的变化周期基本相同,变化周期为16年和12年,说明大气降水对泉水位有直接影响;（2）在1956—2013年,济南泉域地下水水位具有0.65 m·（10a）-1的年际显著下降趋势,但降水具有12.65 mm·（10a）-1的不显著上升趋势,说明在人为因素影响下泉水动态的影响因素的权重发生了变化;（3）大气降水在1999年发生突变,1999年之后年降水为增加趋势;而地下水水位突变年份为1967年,1967年以后水位持续降低,2004年以后水位快速上升,泉水位未来趋势应与降水保持一致,呈上升趋势,说明大气降水并非泉水动态的唯一影响因素;（4）通过建立不同时段的多元回归模型,表明近58年来地下水水位的主要影响因素由大气降水到人工开采之间的转换,同时验证了小波分析和Mann-Kendall法研究地下水动态的适宜性和可靠性,也为济南市的保泉提供了参考依据。      

Semantic and syntactic interoperability in online processing of big Earth observation data

ABSTRACT

The challenge of enabling syntactic and semantic interoperability for comprehensive and reproducible online processing of big Earth observation (EO) data is still unsolved. Supporting both types of interoperability is one of the requirements to efficiently extract valuable information from the large amount of available multi-temporal gridded data sets. The proposed system wraps world models, (semantic interoperability) into OGC Web Processing Services (syntactic interoperability) for semantic online analyses. World models describe spatio-temporal entities and their relationships in a formal way. The proposed system serves as enabler for (1) technical interoperability using a standardised interface to be used by all types of clients and (2) allowing experts from different domains to develop complex analyses together as collaborative effort. Users are connecting the world models online to the data, which are maintained in a centralised storage as 3D spatio-temporal data cubes. It allows also non-experts to extract valuable information from EO data because data management, low-level interactions or specific software issues can be ignored. We discuss the concept of the proposed system, provide a technical implementation example and describe three use cases for extracting changes from EO images and demonstrate the usability also for non-EO, gridded, multi-temporal data sets (CORINE land cover).     

Mapping cropland fallow areas in myanmar to scale up sustainable intensification of pulse crops in the farming system

Cropland fallows are the next best-bet for intensification and extensification, leading to increased food production and adding to the nutritional basket. The agronomical suitability of these lands can decide the extent of usage of these lands. Myanmar’s agricultural land (over 13.8 Mha) has the potential to expand by another 50% into additional fallow areas. These areas may be used to grow short-duration pulses, which are economically important and nutritionally rich, and constitute the diets of millions of people as well as provide an important source of livestock feed throughout Asia. Intensifying rice fallows will not only improve the productivity of the land but also increase the income of the smallholder farmers. The enhanced cultivation of pulses will help improve nutritional security in Myanmar and also help conserve natural resources and reduce environmental degradation. The objectives of this study was to use remote sensing methods to identify croplands in Myanmar and cropland fallow areas in two important agro-ecological regions, delta and coastal region and the dry zone. The study used moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) 250-m, 16-day normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) maximum value composite (MVC), and land surface water index (LSWI) for one 1 year (1 June 2012–31 May 2013) along with seasonal field-plot level information and spectral matching techniques to derive croplands versus cropland fallows for each of the three seasons: the monsoon period between June and October; winter period between November and February; and summer period between March and May. The study showed that Myanmar had total net cropland area (TNCA) of 13.8 Mha. Cropland fallows during the monsoon season account for a meagre 2.4% of TNCA. However, in the winter season, 56.5% of TNCA (or 7.8 Mha) were classified as cropland fallows and during the summer season, 82.7% of TNCA (11.4 Mha) were cropland fallows. The producer’s accuracy of the cropland fallow class varied between 92 and 98% (errors of omission of 2 to 8%) and user’s accuracy varied between 82 and 92% (errors of commission of 8 to 18%) for winter and summer, respectively. Overall, the study estimated 19.2 Mha cropland fallows from the two major seasons (winter and summer). Out of this, 10.08 Mha has sufficient moisture (either from rainfall or stored soil water content) to grow short-season pulse crops. This potential with an estimated income of US$ 300 per hectare, if exploited sustainably, is estimated to bring an additional net income of about US$ 1.5 billion to Myanmar per year if at least half (5.04 Mha) of the total cropland fallows (10.08 Mha) is covered with short season pulses.     

模式内部变率引起的1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间模拟的不确定性研究

模式内部变率是模拟结果不确定性的重要来源,然而它对于1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间不确定性的影响尚不清楚。因此,基于耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)的多模式数据研究了模式内部变率对1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间不确定性的影响以及对未来排放情景的敏感性。结果表明,模式内部变率对升温阈值出现时间模拟的影响与外强迫的影响相当,单个模式内部不同成员达到全球平均1.5℃或2℃增温的年份相差2~12年;其影响具有明显的空间差异,影响极大值出现在欧亚大陆以北洋面、白令海峡周围区域、北美东北部及其与格陵兰岛之间的海域、南半球高纬地区等;低排放情景下模式内部变率的影响大于高排放情景。     

基于循环神经网络的单站能见度短临预报试验

由于能见度具有局地性和复杂的非线性变化特征,一直是精细化预报的难点。人工神经网络对复杂变化过程的模拟能力较高,为解决这一难题提供了可能性。本文采用循环神经网络,利用福州气象观测站地面观测数据,建立了福州单站能见度短临预报模型,并就预报能力进行了评估。随机检验结果表明,在1 h、3 h、6 h时效上,循环神经网络的预报与观测的变化趋势一致性较好;均方根误差比基于实况的预报分别减小15.75%、31.66%、41.26%,说明具备较好的预报能力;平均绝对值误差比传统BP神经网络分别减小12.90%、24.45%、 38.99%,表明循环神经网络对能见度预报具有优势,为能见度的精细化短临预报提供了新途径。     

用GPS时间序列获取中国大陆微动态应变场

基于中国大陆GPS观测在国际地球参考框架（ITRF）获得的站点位置,由三角形法通过反演逐年推算中国大陆年微动态应变场. 结果显示,研究区年微动态应变场大致以南北地震带为界. 西部地区存在方向大体一致的年主压应变优势分布方向, 方向自西向东、 由近南北向转为北东向,与近代应变场的方向一致,表明西部地区变形主要是由印度板块向北推进和西伯利亚地块相对南推形成的,且整体上仍是新构造运动的继承;东部大部分地区不存在年主应变的优势分布方向.年最大剪应变在不同地区差别很大,变化范围从4.13times;10-8~7.0times;10-10, 总体上西部大于东部. 同一区域年最大剪应变的多年变化表明,西部变化大,东部变化平缓. 年面膨胀显示,研究区大部分为压缩区,且同一区域的多年变化平缓.