Surface current variability in the Keum River Estuary (South Korea) during summer 2002 as observed by high-frequency radar and coastal monitoring buoy

High-frequency (HF) radar observations of surface currents were conducted for 3 months during summer 2002 in the Keum River estuary. A comparison between HF radar-derived currents and directly measured ones form a buoy showed that the regression slope is close to 1 and the correlation coefficient greater than 0.86, with an RMS difference less than 13 cm/s which is less than 17% of the tidal current. This fairly good agreement allows us to use HF radar observation in investigating the surface flow and circulation in this tidal-current-dominant coastal-plume area. To examine the spatial variation in tidal current characteristics, as well as currents associated with non-tidal forcing, the HF radar-derived currents were separated into tidal and sub-tidal frequency currents. The overall pattern of M₂-current ellipse distribution in the study area showed a counterclockwise rotation, with the offshore maximum current direction to the northeast. Eccentricity, the direction of maximum current, and the phase of net motion of the ellipse changed near the estuary mouth and near the gap of the Saemangeum reclamation tide dyke due to the complex coastal geometry and the out-flowing jet during the ebb period.     

Phases Representing Source Lengths of Tsunami in Tide Gauge Records

We identified a phase representing the source length of tsunami's in the tide gauge records around Japan. This phase was observed at tide stations, located in the direction of the long axis of the sources, for four large tsunamis: 1964 Niigata, 1968 Tokachi-oki, 1983 Nihonkaichubu, and 1993 Hokkaido-nanseioki. The phase consists of two continuous crests starting as the initial arrival and has a time length of 15–47 minutes. This is the time required to propagate across the source area along the long axis. Strong evidence that the phase is generated at the source is the good correlation between waveform observed at one side and time-inversed waveform at another side. The correlation results from the instantaneous generation of the source. The source lengths of 74–254 km were obtained under an assumption of sea depths at the sources and verified to coincide with ones within a relative error of 15% that were previously obtained by other methods.     

双重介质含水层中井水位潮汐相位滞后现象的理论分析

简略地介绍了双重介质含水层模型；推导出引潮力作用下双重介质含水层中渗流运动的偏微分方程；将此泛定的方程与潜水的Boulton方程进行数学类比，从而得出一个新的迟后给水项，为解释固体潮致井水位振荡相位滞后现象奠定了物理基础；通过对该泛定方程的分析，还发现该迟后给水项与深部含水层中存在的一种潮汐液流振荡现象有关．      

随州-信阳ML4.2地震前定点形变异常特征

分析了2000年1月28日随州和信阳交界处发生的ML4．2地震前，信阳地震台（△＝35km)定点形变中短期及临震异常特征。分析研究表明：该次地震前信阳台目视水管倾斜仪EW向测值从1999年6开始出现反向变化，NS向测值从1999年3月开始出现加速变化；水平摆倾余仪EW向和NS向测值分别从1999年2月和1999年6月开始出现反向变化。这些异常于2000年下半年结束。震前3天水管倾斜仪EW向测值出现加速变化；震前5－8天NS向测值除了出现加速变化外，还出现突跳。城前约20天，水平摆倾斜仪2个方向测值构出现了准周期性波动变化。另外，形变固体潮潮汐因子也有明显异常。     

海潮对倾斜仪及伸缩仪观测的影响

利用Farrell模式，结合烟台海洋洁潮汐，估算了海潮对烟台地倾斜、伸缩仪观测影响的量值。有了这一数据，就可以根据烟台的海潮观测资料对地倾斜、伸缩仪观测资料进行海潮影响的改正。     

SQ—70型倾斜仪调仪器后校正值计算的改进方法

根据倾斜固体潮波记录曲线的特性及多年工作的经验，对现行观测中，调仪器时间较长或停记时间较长情况下进行校正值的计算提出了一种改进方法，该方法能较好地提高校正值计算的精度，使校正值更为合理。     

体应变观测中的气压干扰机制和排除方法的研究

建立体应变理论气压干扰模型,通过实际观测资料研究了气压对体应变月变和日变的干扰过程,探讨消除干扰的方法,且和水位资料作了对比分析。     

云龙台固体潮观测对地震监测能力的评价

对云龙台的水管倾斜仪观测数据进行了倾斜固体潮的潮汐分析，发现ＥＷ和ＮＳ两个分量的振幅因子异常变化与地震有较好的对应关系。由于潮汐分析方法本身的科学性和严密性，故振幅因子误差小、精度高；又因为对潮汐谐波波群的选择，避免了以太阳日为基础的周期性干扰，Ｍ２、Ｏ１波振幅因子的地震异常识别则简易可行，并且可信度高。云龙台的固体潮观测具有较强的地震监测能力。     

Comparison of observed and theoretically calculated seiches of Heda Bay,Japan

We carried out observations of sea-level fluctuations simultaneously at three stations on the coast of Heda Bay, Honshu, Japan, using supersonic-type water level gauges controlled by a personal computer. Analyses of the obtained data showed predominant spectral peaks at periods of 7.6, 2.0 and 1.3 minutes for all three stations. Comparison of the observed data with numerically calculated normal oscillation modes of the bay indicates that these three spectral peaks correspond to the theoretical first, third and seventh normal modes of the basin respectively, judging from the results of cross-spectral analyses. The reason for the absence of the remaining normal modes, especially of the second or the lateral first mode of the basin, is briefly considered.     

集成奇异谱分析和自回归滑动平均预测日本近海海平面变化

本文从日本沿岸选取了28个验潮站及联测的GPS站,利用奇异谱分析（Singular Spectrum Analysis,SSA）和SSA+自回归滑动平均（Auto Regression Moving Average,ARMA）方法预测了2014—2018年的近海海平面变化和地壳垂直变化.并用同时段的验潮及GPS的实际测量值进行验证,结果显示,SSA+ARMA预测的相对海平面精度为0.0357~0.0607 m,地壳垂直运动的精度为0.0049~0.0077 m,绝对海平面的精度为0.0433~0.0683 m,且三者SSA+ARMA的预测结果均优于只用SSA预测的结果.在此基础上本文利用SSA+ARMA预测了日本沿岸2019—2023年的近海绝对海平面变化,结果显示,2019—2023年的平均海面高较往年（2014—2018）升高0.0353 m,2003—2023年绝对海平面的变化率为0.0039 m·a^-1,预测结果较为理想.