山东夏季极端热事件变化特征分析

利用山东88个气象站1961—2019年夏季6—8月逐日最高、最低气温观测数据,分析了山东各地极端热昼、极端热夜、极端高温日三个极端热事件的时空演变规律和突变特征。结果表明：1）山东夜间出现极端热事件及白天和夜间同时出现极端热事件的天数增多、强度增强、占比增加。历年极端热昼出现天数和占比均呈不同程度的减少趋势,平均强度呈减小趋势,其中占比减少最明显;极端热夜、极端高温日出现天数和占比均呈不同程度的增加趋势,平均强度呈增强趋势。2）山东内陆和沿海地区各极端热事件变化差异明显。内陆地区极端热昼各指标减少、减小趋势更显著,大部分地区变化趋势通过了0.05的显著性水平检验,半岛南部和东部部分区域则有增加、增强趋势;中西部地区极端热夜各指标增加、增强趋势更显著,大部分地区变化趋势通过了0.05的显著性水平检验;中东部区域尤其是半岛地区极端高温日各指标增加、增强趋势更显著,大部分地区变化趋势通过了0.05的显著性水平检验。3）各极端热事件不同指标的突变情况迥异。极端热昼历年出现天数没有发生突变,平均强度在1970年前后发生突变,突变发生后,平均强度明显减小;极端热夜出现天数和平均强度均在1994年前后发生突变,突变发生后,出现天数明显增加、平均强度明显增强;极端高温日出现天数和强度分别在1994年、1973年前后发生突变,突变发生后,出现天数明显增加。     

CMIP5模式对辽宁省气温模拟能力及未来2℃升温阈值出现时间评估

利用全球气候模式、多模式集合和辽宁省气象观测数据,评估了不同典型浓度路径下19个全球气候模式和多模式集合对辽宁省气温变化模拟能力和可信度。结果表明:最优模式模拟结果优于多模式集合,具有较高的可信度。随着全球二氧化碳排放浓度增加,气温变化率和可信度呈增加趋势,首次达到2℃年份呈提前趋势,大部分站点出现在2011年之前,且出现年份越晚,升幅往往越高,反之亦然。大部分站点首次稳定到达2℃阈值开始年份在2022年之前,结束年份出现在2019—2026年,持续时间在13 a以下,开始年份均呈西早—东晚分布形势,结束时间和持续时间分布较均匀,且随着全球二氧化碳排放浓度增加,升温幅度呈上升趋势。不同典型浓度路径下各区域最高温、最低温和平均气温出现年份和变化特征均比较一致。     

统计方法与淹没模型结合的山洪灾害风险评估方法及其应用

本文针对有水位资料,但没有流量观测的流域,同时又有历史罕见洪水记载、流域断面洪水警戒水位和自动站记载的近年几次小洪水过程,采用统计分析方法确定雨 洪关系,得到致灾临界雨量;再应用淹没模型模拟洪水淹没情况,得到洪水的风险等级评估。通过对历史特大山洪个例的淹没反演,可以看到由数理统计与淹没模型相结合的方法确定出的山洪风险等级,与实际情况基本相符。由于洪水记载和考察资料,往往对洪水淹没的高度记录准确,而对发生的具体时间通常是模糊的,本文得到的临界雨量指标是否能够预见洪水需要实例检验。通过2012年前汛期强降水过程的检验,虽然预警了低风险洪水事件,但是风险发生时间有差异,经过合理调整低风险临界雨量,满足了能够预见洪水的目的。对于其他等级的临界雨量的检验,有待于日后更多的实例,进行合理的调整,逐步完善翠江流域的山洪临界雨量指标。     

Accuracy and precision of different sampling strategies and flux integration methods for runoff water: comparisons based on measurements of the electrical conductivity

Because of their fast response to hydrological events, small catchments show strong quantitative and qualitative variations in their water runoff. Fluxes of solutes or suspended material can be estimated from water samples only if an appropriate sampling scheme is used. We used continuous in‐stream measurements of the electrical conductivity of the runoff in a small subalpine catchment (64 ha) in central Switzerland and in a very small (0·16 ha) subcatchment. Different sampling and flux integration methods were simulated for weekly water analyses. Fluxes calculated directly from grab samples are strongly biased towards high conductivities observed at low discharges. Several regressions and weighted averages have been proposed to correct for this bias. Their accuracy and precision are better, but none of these integration methods gives a consistently low bias and a low residual error. Different methods of peak sampling were also tested. Like regressions, they produce important residual errors and their bias is variable. This variability (both between methods and between catchments) does not allow one to tell a priori which sampling scheme and integration method would be more accurate. Only discharge‐proportional sampling methods were found to give essentially unbiased flux estimates. Programmed samplers with a fraction collector allow for a proportional pooling and are appropriate for short‐term studies. For long‐term monitoring or experiments, sampling at a frequency proportional to the discharge appears to be the best way to obtain accurate and precise flux estimates. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Radio‐tracking gravel particles in a large braided river in New Zealand: a field test of the stochastic theory of bed load transport proposed by Einstein

Hans A. Einstein initiated a probabilistic approach to modelling sediment transport in rivers. His formulae were based on theory and were stimulated by laboratory investigations. The theory assumes that bed load movement occurs in individual steps of rolling, sliding or saltation and rest periods. So far very few attempts have been made to measure stochastic elements in nature. For the first time this paper presents results of radio‐tracing the travel path of individual particles in a large braided gravel bed river: the Waimakariri River of New Zealand. As proposed by Einstein, it was found that rest periods can be modelled by an exponential distribution, but particle step lengths are better represented by a gamma distribution. Einstein assumed an average travel distance of 100 grain‐diameters for any bed load particle between consecutive points of deposition, but larger values of 6·7 m or 150 grain‐diameters and 6·1 m or 120 grain‐diameters were measured for two test particle sizes. Together with other available large scale field data, a dependence of the mean step length on particle diameter relative to the D₅₀ of the bed surface was found. During small floods the time used for movement represents only 2·7% of the total time from erosion to deposition. The increase in percentage of time being used for transport means that it then has to be regarded in stochastic transport models. Tracing the flow path of bed load particles between erosion and deposition sites is a step towards explaining the interactions between sediment transport and river morphology. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seasonal inundation patterns in two large savanna floodplains of South America: the Llanos de Moxos (Bolivia) and the Llanos del Orinoco (Venezuela and Colombia)

Inundation patterns in two of the largest savanna floodplains of South America were studied by analysis of the 37‐GHz polarization difference observed by the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (Nimbus‐7 satellite). Flooded area was estimated at monthly intervals for January 1979 through to August 1987 using mixing models that account for the major landscape units with distinctive microwave emission characteristics. Results are presented separately for five subregions in each of the two floodplain regions to show the spatial as well as temporal variability in inundation patterns. The total area inundated during the 9 years varied between 2069 and 78 460 km² in the Llanos de Moxos (also spelled as Mojos; median area, 23 383 km²) and 1278 and 105 454 km² in the Llanos del Orinoco (median, 25 374 km²), not including the open‐water area of permanent lakes and river channels. The correlation between flooded area and river stage was used to extend the inundation records over a 30‐year period in the Moxos (1967–97) and a 58‐year period (1927–85) in the Orinoco. Interannual variability in inundation is greater in the Moxos than the Orinoco. Comparison of these data, however, with a previously published analysis of the Pantanal wetland shows that inundation patterns in these two floodplain regions are not as variable across years as they are in the Pantanal. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling of sediment dynamics in a laboratory‐scale experimental catchment

The variability of hillslope form and function is examined experimentally using a simple model catchment in which most landscape development parameters are either known or controlled. It is demonstrated that there is considerable variability in sediment output from similar catchments, subjected to the same hydrological processes, and for which the initial hillslope profiles are the same. The results demonstrate that, in the case of catchments with a linear initial hillslope profile, the sediment output is initially high but reduces through time, whereas for a concave initial profile the sediment output was smaller and relatively constant. Concave hillslope profiles also displayed reduced sediment output when compared with linear slopes with the same overall slope. Using this experimental model catchment data, the SIBERIA landscape evolution model was tested for its ability to predict temporal sediment transport. When calibrated for the rainfall and erodible material, SIBERIA is able to simulate mean temporal sediment output for the experimental catchment over a range of hillslope profiles and rainfall intensities. SIBERIA is also able to match the hillslope profile of the experimental catchments. The results of the study provide confidence in the ability of SIBERIA to predict temporal sediment output. The experimental and modelling data also demonstrate that, even with all geomorphic and hydrological variables being known and/or controlled, there is still a need for long‐term stream gauging to obtain reliable assessments of field catchment hydrology and sediment transport. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Investigations on the runoff generation at the profile and plot scales,Swiss Emmental

This article describes an investigation on runoff generation at different scales in the forested catchment of the Sperbelgraben in the Emmental region (Swiss Prealps) where studies in the field of forest hydrology have a history of 100 years. It focuses on the analysis of soil profiles and the subsequent sprinkling experiments above them (1 m²), as well as on surface runoff measurements on larger plots (50 to 110 m²). In the Sperbelgraben investigation area, two very distinct runoff reactions could be observed. On the one hand, very high production of saturation overland flow was registered on wet areas of gleyic soils, with runoff coefficients between 0·39 and 0·94 for profile irrigation. On the other hand, almost no surface runoff was measured on Cambisols, with the exception at some sites of a hydrophobic reaction detected at the beginning of storms after dry periods (coefficients for profile irrigation: 0·01–0·16). This pattern was observed during 1 m² soil plot irrigation and on surface runoff plots. Apart from a less distinctive signal of the water‐repellent litter layer on the larger surface runoff plots, the dominant hydrological processes at the two scales are the same. The determined runoff reaction at the two scales corresponds well with information from a forest site type map describing soil and vegetation characteristics and used as a substitute for a soil map in this study. Theoretical considerations describing forest influence on flood discharge are discussed and evaluated to be in good agreement with observations. These findings are a sound foundation for application in hydrological catchment modelling. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparison of infiltration models

Fourteen popular, representative infiltration models, some physically based, some semi‐empirical and some empirical, were selected for a comparative evaluation. Using the Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency criterion, the models were evaluated and compared for 243 sets of infiltration data collected from field and laboratory tests conducted in India and the USA on soils ranging from coarse sand to fine clay. Based on a relative grading scale, the semi‐empirical Singh–Yu general model, Holtan model and Horton model were graded respectively as 6·52, 5·57 and 5·48 out of 10. The empirical Huggins and Monke model, modified Kostiakov and Kostiakov model were graded as 5·57, 5·30 and 5·22, respectively. The physically based non‐linear and linear models of Smith–Parlange were graded as 5·48 and 5·22, respectively. Other models were ranked lower than these models. All the models generally performed poorly in field tests on Georgia's sandy soils, except the Robertsdale loamy sand. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seasonal evolution of meltwater generation,storage and discharge at a non‐temperate glacier in Svalbard

In glacierized catchments, meteorological inputs driving surface melting are translated into runoff outputs mediated by the glacier hydrological system: analysis of the relationship between meteorology and diurnal and seasonal patterns of runoff should reflect the functioning of that system, with the role of meltwater storage likely to be of particular importance. Daily meltwater storage is determined for a glacier at 78 °N in the Svalbard archipelago, by comparing inputs calculated from a surface energy balance model with measured outputs (proglacial discharge). Solar radiation, air temperature, wind speed and proglacial discharge are then analysed by regression and time‐series methods, in order to assess the meteorology–discharge relationship and its variation at diurnal and seasonal time‐scales. The recorded discharge time‐series can be divided into two contrasting intervals: up to early August, proglacial discharge was high and variable, mean hydrographs showed little indication of diurnal cycling, ARIMA models of discharge indicated a non‐seasonal, moving‐average generating process, and there was a net loss of meltwater from storage; from early August, proglacial discharge was low and relatively invariable, but with clearer diurnal cycles, regression models of discharge showed substantially improved correlations with air temperature and solar radiation, ARIMA models indicated a non‐seasonal, autoregressive generating process, and eventually a seasonal component, and there was a net gain in meltwater storage. The transition between the two periods is brief compared with the duration of the melt season. The runoff response to meteorology therefore lacks the strongly progressive element previously identified in mid‐latitude glacierized catchments. In particular, the glacier hydrological system only appears responsive to diurnal forcing following the depletion of the seasonal snowpack meltwater store. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.