Seismic Hazards Assessment for Radioactive Waste Disposal Sites in Regions of Low Seismic Activity

A comparative tectonic quiescence and lack of earthquakes make the stable centres of continents attractive for siting long-term radioactive waste storage facilities. The low rates of deformation in such regions, however, make it difficult to characterize their long-term seismotectonic behaviour, leading to uncertain estimates for the very low probability hazard estimates required by society. In an attempt to overcome the deficiency of both contemporary seismicity and paleoseismic data in central Canada, we have used earthquake histories from regions with similar seismotectonic characteristics from around the world. Substituting space for time, we estimate a long-term rate per 10⁶ km² of 0.004 magnitude ≥6 earthquakes per annum, of which 33–100% might rupture to the surface.     

我国西部1∶5万地形图空白区地物解译研究——以西藏那曲其香错地区为例

我国西部部分地区1∶5万地形图数据尚未完成,给区域和国家经济发展带来极大不便。空间技术、计算机技术和信息技术的高速发展为遥感技术应用提供了技术支持,高分辨率影像获取能力的提高为大比例尺地物特征的提取提供了数据可能。本文采用SPOT5遥感影像,以1∶5万地形图图式标准为依据,进行青藏高原其香错地区地物判读,结果表明SPOT5能基本满足1∶5万地形图制图要求。为进一步提高判读结果,可采用多时相、多分辨率影像进行1∶5万地形图地物判读。     

WAFS产品中GRIB资料中国区产品评估

为了给使用WAFS产品的用户提供量化参考依据，选取WAFS产品中常用区域和层次的GRIB数据，利用由国家气象中心提供的风、温客观分析网格点资料，与WAFS中同时刻的预报场产品（风、温网格点资料），用均方根误差进行数字化形式分析比较。结果表明：WAFS提供的风、温预报，通常是短时效的风、温预报比长时效的风、温预报更接近客观分析场；低层的预报比高层的预报更接近客观分析场；风的预报以v矢量的预报优于u矢量的预报；风的误差主要来源于u矢量的误差。     

冬季浙闽沿岸水分布的短期变动与风的关系初探

利用1999年7月至2003年5月期间的遥感数据,包括AVHRR海表层温度、QuikSCAT风场和风应力数据,在分析4年内月平均遥感温度场和风场特征与历年现场观测所获得的认识一致的基础上,选取2002年002-008天这一连续晴空的时段,尝试建立简单的沿岸冷水影响面积表征方法,初步探讨了冬季台湾海峡浙闽沿岸水分布的短期变动与风应力之间的关系。结果表明,风是决定冬季台湾海峡海表层温度逐日变动的关键因素,日平均SST与风应力的相关系数R2达到0·90。采用温度法(SST≤17℃)和温度空间距平法(≤-1℃)表征的浙闽沿岸水影响面积的变化趋势基本一致,而且影响面积的逐日变动与风应力显著相关,二者的相关系数R2分别达到0·90和0·91。     

Analysis and classification of hyperspectral data for mapping land degradation: An application in southern Spain

Desertification is a severe stage of land degradation, manifested by “desert-like” conditions in dryland areas. Climatic conditions together with geomorphologic processes help to mould desert-like soil surface features in arid zones. The identification of these soil features serves as a useful input for understanding the desertification process and land degradation as a whole. In the present study, imaging spectrometer data were used to detect and map desert-like surface features. Absorption feature parameters in the spectral region between 0.4 and 2.5 μm wavelengths were analysed and correlated with soil properties, such as soil colour, soil salinity, gypsum content, etc. Soil groupings were made based on their similarities and their spectral reflectance curves were studied. Distinct differences in the reflectance curves throughout the spectrum were exhibited between groups. Although the samples belonging to the same group shared common properties, the curves still showed differences within the same group.Characteristic reflectance curves of soil surface features were derived from spectral measurements both in the field and in the laboratory, and mean reflectance values derived from image pixels representing known features. Linear unmixing and spectral angle matching techniques were applied to assess their suitability in mapping surface features for land degradation studies. The study showed that linear unmixing provided more realistic results for mapping “desert-like” surface features than the spectral angle matching technique.     

土壤热异常对地表能量平衡影响初探

将来自土壤深部的热通量引入off line的陆面过程模式 (NCAR—LSM ) ,通过长达 2a的数值试验对比分析了它对各层次土壤温度和地表能量平衡的影响。　　在土壤底部引入 5W /m2 的热通量使底层土壤显著升温 ,但升温随着接近表层而迅速衰减。积分 3个月后 ,由地下进入地表的热流量增幅可达 1W/m2 以上 ,并持续增大到 5W /m2 ,地表最大升温约 0 .5K ,同时地表感热、蒸发潜热及长波辐射通量均有 1W /m2 左右的正异常 ;若将土壤热传导系数放大一个量级以加速热量交换 ,则地表升温提高到 1K以上 ,长波辐射增加 3W /m2 以上 ,超过了气溶胶全球平均的辐射效应。结果表明 :一定量值的土壤热异常对地表能量平衡和短期气候变化 (10 -1～ 10 1a)有着不可忽略的影响。同时 ,深入的资料分析、完善的陆面过程模式以及它与大气模式的耦合试验也是亟待进行的相关工作。     

土壤热异常影响地表能量平衡的个例分析和数值模拟

The statistical relationship between soil thermal anomaly and short-term climate change is presented based on a typical case study. Furthermore, possible physical mechanisms behind the relationship are revealed through using an off-line land surface model with a reasonable soil thermal forcing at the bottom of the soil layer.In the first experiment, the given heat flux is 5 W m-2 at the bottom of the soil layer (in depth of 6.3 m)for 3 months, while only a positive ground temperature anomaly of 0.06℃ can be found compared to the control run. The anomaly, however, could reach 0.65℃ if the soil thermal conductivity was one order of magnitude larger. It could be even as large as 0.81℃ assuming the heat flux at bottom is 10 W m-2. Meanwhile, an increase of about 10 W m-2 was detected both for heat flux in soil and sensible heat on land surface, which is not neglectable to the short-term climate change. The results show that considerable response in land surface energy budget could be expected when the soil thermal forcing reaches a certain spatial-tem poral scale. Therefore, land surface models should not ignore the upward heat flux from the bottom of the soil layer. Moreover, integration for a longer period of time and coupled land-atmosphere model are also necessary for the better understanding of this issue.     

Wind and Wave Data Analysis for the Aegean Sea - Preliminary Results

In this paper, a statistical analysis on wind and wave buoy measurements and wind and wave model forecasts obtained during a two-year period (1999-2001) is presented with reference to four characteristic near-shore sites of the Aegean Sea. The measurements are a main product of the "POSEIDON" system aiming at the monitoring and forecasting of the state of the Greek seas, operated by the National Centre for Marine Research (NCMR). Although the two-year period is rather short for a thorough analysis of the local wind and wave climate, yet the obtained results, presented herein for the first time, reveal some interesting features of the corresponding wave and wind characteristics. Comparisons between the measurements and the forecast results are also performed at the locations under consideration. It is found that (i) wind speeds obtained from the POSEIDON weather forecasting system are, in general, in agreement with the measurements, except for high wind speeds which are systematically underestimated, (ii) the WAM model can successfully follow the monthly and over year trend of the evolution of wind and wave characteristics, but face significant problems for efficient sea-state forecasting. Finally, the overall pattern of the wind/wave climate for the entire Aegean Sea as obtained from the models is presented by means of the spatial distribution of the mean annual wind and sea-state intensity.     

Atmospheric Surface-Layer Processes During the Total Solar Eclipse Of 11 August 1999

The central path of the total solar eclipse (TSE) of 11 August 1999 mostly passedthrough a region of active monsoon in India, with the eclipse ending around localsunset. Measurements in the surface layer (SL) were carried out close to the eclipseaxis at Akola (20°42' N, 77°2' E) in central India. The globalradiation flux reaching the surface vanishes around totality at 1803:24 (LT), followedby a small recovery before again dipping to zero at sunset. The temperatures in the SL, and subsoil at 50-mm depth, show a local minimum with a lag of about 10 min after the second contact, whereas the lag appears to vanish when the temperature series is detrended. The SL exhibits near-neutral, though generally stable, conditions from about 1500 hr itself due to heavy cloud cover followed by the eclipse-induced cooling of the surface. The wind component across the eclipse axis vanishes at totality, the wind vector aligning with the azimuth of the traversing moon shadow. The deceleration of the mean flow can be due to the combined effect of the colder surface and downward heat flux, where the locally altered horizontal temperature gradients may cause, as in this instance, the cessation of the cross flow.The oscillations in temperature and wind that show significant peaks, around 90–100 min as well as the semi-period of the eclipse near 60 min, persist for several hours past the eclipse event. A fresh analysis of the published data on the TSE of 7 March 1970 shows spectral peaks in the temperature nearly coincident with those already reported from the surface pressure records. The oscillations in the SL fields during the two TSE events are very similar implying that the source mechanism is also likely to be the same in both the cases.     

The Production of Methanol by Flowering Plants and the Global Cycle of Methanol

Methanol has been recognised as an important constituent of the background atmosphere, but little is known about its overall cycle in the biosphere/atmosphere system. A model is proposed for the production and emission to the atmosphere of methanol by flowering plants based on plant structure and metabolic properties, particularly the demethylation of pectin in the primary cell walls. This model provides a framework to extend seven sets of measurements of methanol emission rates to the global terrestrial biosphere. A global rate of release of methanol from plants to the atmosphere of 100 Tg y^–1 is calculated. A separate model of the global cycle of methanol is constructed involving emissions from plant growth and decay, atmospheric and oceanic chemical production, biomass burning and industrial production. Removal processes occur through hydroxyl radical attack in the atmosphere, in clouds and oceans, and wet and dry deposition. The model successfully reproduces the methanol concentrations in the continental boundary-layer and the free atmosphere, including the inter-hemispheric gradient in the free atmosphere. The model demonstrates a new concept in global biogeochemistry, the coupling of plant cell growth with the global atmospheric concentration of methanol. The model indicates that the ocean provides a storage reservoir capable of holding at least 66 times more methanol than the atmosphere. The ocean surface layer reservoir essentially buffers the atmospheric concentration of methanol, providing a physically based smoothing mechanism with a time constant of the order of one year.