参数的期望估计及其在形变分析中的应用

利用“参数的期望估计”能准确定位、定量粗差及参数的期望估计不受粗差影响折特殊性质,寻找地壳变形区域和不变形区域,以确定拟稳点,进而进行拟稳变换,分析地菜变,将是一种有效方法。     

短周期仪器记录在远震分析中的应用

地震泼由多种频率成份组成,在其传播过程中。由于地球介质的滤波作用,随着传播距离的增大。高频成份逐渐被衰减。周期越大的成份传播越远。因此,在地震观测上,不同频带的地震仪用于观测不同震中距范围的地震,使仪器较好地响应,就我国台网而言,短周期仪用于地方震、近震的监测,中长周期仪和长周期仪用于远震,极远震的监测,其中长周期仪偏重于记录极远震。但作者在实际分析工作中注意到,短周期仪的记录应用于远震,极远震的分析,显示出独特的作用,充分挖掘和利用短仪资料,将会更加丰富远震、极远震的震相资料。本文以高台地震台的资料为依据,从震中距和震级角度,与中长仪和长仪作比较,对短仪记录远震、极远震的震相及特征作了统计分析与初步探讨,并对新疆地区“影区”地震S波的记录、日本地区地震_PPcP等震相的出现提出了现象的存在,给出了相应的观测结果,以待步一步研究。     

X-ray spectroscopy of stellar coronae

Summary From the early discovery in 1948 of X-rays from the Solar corona, X-ray spectroscopy has proven to be an invaluable tool in studying hot astrophysical and laboratory plasmas. Because the emission line spectra and continua from optically thin plasmas are fairly well known, high-resolution X-ray spectroscopy has its most obvious application in the measurement of optically thin sources such as the coronae of stars. In particular X-ray observations with theEINSTEIN observatory have demonstrated that soft X-ray emitting coronae are a common feature among stars on the cool side of the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram, with the probable exception of single very cool giant and supergiant stars and A-type dwarfs. Observations with the spectrometers aboardEINSTEIN andEXOSAT have shown that data of even modest spectral resolution (/ = 10–100) permit the identification of coronal material at different temperatures whose existence may relate to a range of possible magnetic loop structures in the hot outer atmospheres of these stars. The higher spectral resolution of the next generation of spectrometers aboard NASA'sAXAF and ESA'sXMM will allow to fully resolve the coronal temperature structure and to enable velocity diagnostics and the determination of coronal densities, from which the loop geometry (i.e. surface filling factors and loop lengths) can be derived. In this paper various diagnostic techniques are reviewed and the spectral results fromEINSTEIN andEXOSAT are discussed. A number of spectral simulations forAXAF andXMM, especially high-resolution iron K-shell, L-shell, and2s-2p spectra in the wavelength regions around 1.9 Å, 10 Å, and 100 Å, respectively, are shown to demonstrate the capabilities for temperature, density, and velocity diagnostics. Finally, iron K-shell spectra are simulated for various types of detectors such as microcalorimeter, Nb-junction, and CCD.     

饱和软土压缩曲线的“反常”现象

饱和软土压缩试验时,经常出现压缩曲线“反常”、压缩系数“倒大”的现象。它是土的原始结构发生破坏前后的不同压缩性的客观反映。饱和软土的结构力很微弱,唯质量好的原状土才能见到这种“反常”。应从成孔、取样、测试及资料整理等多个环节保证其工程意义。     

黄河影响下开封城市的历史演变

河流对城市的形成和发展起着重要的作用,古人形象地把其比喻为“城市之血脉”。文章从不同的历史时期黄河及其分支对开封城市演变的影响进行分析,得出黄河与开封城市的关系存在着利与害的统一。开封城市的历史发展,即得益于黄河充足的水源,又受害于其频繁的决溢、泛滥、改道。因此,要采用先进的科学技术对黄河进行综合治理开发,使其恢复它应有的美好环境,更好地造福于人民。     

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

Application of back-propagation networks in debris flow prediction

Debris flows have caused serious loss of human lives and a lot of damage to properties in Taiwan over the past decades. Moreover, debris flows have brought massive mud causing water pollution in reservoirs and resulted in water shortage for daily life locally and affected agricultural irrigation and industrial usages seriously. A number of methods for prediction of debris flows have been studied. However, the successful prediction ratio of debris flows cannot always maintain a stable and reliable level. The objective of this study is to present a stable and reliable analytical model for occurrence predictions of debris flows. This study proposes an Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) model that was constructed by seven significant factors using back-propagation (BP) algorithm. These seven factors include (1) length of creek, (2) average slope, (3) effective watershed area, (4) shape coefficient, (5) median size of soil grain, (6) effective cumulative rainfall, and (7) effective rainfall intensity. A total of 178 potential cases of debris flows collected in eastern Taiwan were fed into the ANN model for training and testing. The average ratio of successful prediction reaching 93.82% demonstrates that the presented ANN model with seven significant factors can provide a stable and reliable result for the prediction of debris flows in hazard mitigation and guarding systems.     

Genesis of monazite and Y zoning in garnet from the Black Hills, South Dakota

The paragenesis of monazite in metapelitic rocks from the contact aureole of the Harney Peak Granite, Black Hills, South Dakota, was investigated using zoning patterns of monazite and garnet, electron microprobe dating of monazite, bulk-rock compositions, and major phase mineral equilibria. The area is characterized by low-pressure and high-temperature metamorphism with metamorphic zones ranging from garnet to sillimanite zones. Garnet porphyroblasts containing euhedral Y annuli are observed from the garnet to sillimanite zones. Although major phase mineral equilibria predict resorption of garnet at the staurolite isograd and regrowth at the andalusite isograd, textural and mass balance analyses suggest that the formation of the Y annuli is not related to the resorption-and-regrowth of garnet having formed instead during garnet growth in the garnet zone. Monazite grains in Black Hills pelites were divided into two generations on the basis of zoning patterns of Y and U: monazite 1 with low-Y and -U and monazite 2 with high-Y and -U. Monazite 1 occurs in the garnet zone and persists into the sillimanite zone as cores shielded by monazite 2 which starts to form in the andalusite zone. Pelites containing garnet porphyroblasts with Y annuli and monazite 1 with patchy Th zoning are more calcic than those with garnet with no Y annuli and monazite with concentric Th zoning. Monazite 1 is attributed to breakdown of allanite in the garnet zone, additionally giving rise to the Y annuli observed in garnet. Monazite 2 grows in the andalusite zone, probably at the expense of garnet and monazite 1 in the andalusite and sillimanite zones. The ages of the two different generations of monazite are within the precision of chemical dating of electron microprobe. The electron microprobe ages of all monazites from the Black Hills show a single ca. 1713 Ma population, close to the intrusion age of the Harney Peak Granite (1715 Ma). This study demonstrates that Y zoning in garnet and monazite are critical to the interpretation of monazite petrogenesis and therefore monazite ages.     

Damage Survey of Water Supply Systems and Fragility Curve of PVC Water Pipelines in the Chi–Chi Taiwan Earthquake

Substantial damage to water supply systems, including water delivery pipelines, water treatment plants, reservoirs, and water storage tanks, was reported after the 1999 Chi–Chi Taiwan Earthquake. This paper first summarizes the damage survey and then presents the results of seismic fragility analysis for underground pipelines. Construction blueprints of the water delivery pipelines and repair work orders of 11 townships and cities in the disastrous area were digitized into a Geographical Information System (GIS) for analysis and assessment. With the aid of the GIS system, we found that PVC pipes made up 86% of water delivery pipelines while steel, cast iron, ductile iron, PE and others took the rest. Therefore, this paper focuses on the fragility analysis of PVC pipes. Three different methods were applied to derive the fragility relations between the PVC water pipes having nominal diameters (approximately inner diameters) greater than or equal to 65 mm and earthquake intensity parameters such as peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity. The results were then examined with those of other countries. The discrepancy between our results and the empirical equation used by HAZUS, an earthquake loss estimation software developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency was not significant.     

Secular variations of the upper crust composition: Implication of geochemical data on the Upper Precambrian shales from the Southern Urals western flank and Uchur-Maya region

In the mid-1980s, it was concluded based on geochemical study that Th, Sc, La concentrations and ratios Th/Sc, La/Sc and Eu/Eu* did not wary significantly in the post-Archean time. It was impossible to judge about compositional variations of upper crust during the Riphean and Vendian, because data of that time characterized a limited number of samples from the post-Archean basins of Australia, New Zealand, and Antarctic. Considered in this work are variations of Eu/Eu*, LREE/HREE, Th/Sc, and La/Sc ratios in Upper Precambrian fine-grained siliciclastic rock of the Southern Urals western flank (Bashkirian meganticlinorium) and Uchur-Maya region (Uchur-Maya plate and Yudoma-Maya belt). As is established, only the Eu anomaly in the studied siliciclastic rocks is practically identical to this parameter of the average post-Archean shale. Three other parameters plot on the Riphean-Vendian variation curves with positive and negative excursions of diverse magnitude, which do not coincide always in time. It is assumed that these excursions likely mark stages of local geodynamic activity, destruction of pre-Riphean cratons, and progressing recycling of sedimentary material during the Riphean.