宝鸡市气候服务系统

本文首先给出了雨水集蓄利用的概念，针对黄土高原地区十分匮乏的水资源和严重的水土流失现状，提出了在该区实施雨水集蓄的可行性。在此基础上，对雨水集蓄利用在各个方面所取得的成就和存在的问题，进行了深入细致的分析，并对亟待解决的问题和今后的发展方向进行了展望。     

Possible Impacts of the Arctic Oscillation on the Interdecadal Variation of Summer Monsoon Rainfall in East Asia

The influences of the wintertime AO (Arctic Oscillation) on the interdecadal variation of summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia were examined. An interdecadal abrupt change was found by the end of the 1970s in the variation of the AO index and the leading principal component time series of the summer rainfall in East Asia, The rainfall anomaly changed from below normal to above normal in central China, the southern part of northeastern China and the Korean peninsula around 1978. However,the opposite interdecadal variation was found in the rainfall anomaly in North China and South China.The interdecadal variation of summer rainfall is associated with the weakening of the East Asia summer monsoon circulation. It is indicated that the interdecadal variation of the AO exerts an influence on the weakening of the monsoon circulation. The recent trend in the AO toward its high-index polarity during the past two decades plays important roles in the land-sea contrast anomalies and wintertime precipitation anomaly. The mid- and high-latitude regions of the Asian continent are warming, while the low-latitude regions are cooling in winter and spring along with the AO entering its high-index polarity after the late 1970s. In the meantime, the precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau and South China is excessive, implying an increase of soil moisture. The cooling tendency of the land in the southern part of Asia will persist until summer because of the memory of soil moisture. So the warming of the Asian continent is relatively slow in summer. Moreover, the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean which are located southward and eastward of the Asian land, are warming from winter to summer. This suggests that the contrast between the land and sea is decreased in summer. The interdecadal decrease of the land-sea heat contrast finally leads to the weakening of the East Asia summer monsoon circulation.     

Runoff Simulation of Three Gorges Area in the Upper Yangtze River during 1998 Flood Season

The contribution of areal precipitation of the catchment from Cuntan to Yichang (Three Gorges area) to eight flood peaks of the Upper Yangtze River (the upper reaches of the Yangtze River) is diagnosed for 1998 flood season. A rainfall-runoff model is employed to simulate runoffs of-this catchment. Comparison of observed and simulated runoffs shows that the rainfall-runoff model has a good capability to simulate the runoff over a large-scale river and the results describe the eight flood peaks very well. Forecast results are closely associated with the sensitivity of the model to rainfall and the calibration processes. Other reasons leading to simulation errors are further discussed.     

2003年2月14日新疆石河子南5.0和5.4级地震灾害减轻因素的分析

2003年2月14日新疆石河子南发生了5．0和5．4级地震。地震发生在北天山石场东南高山区内，位于亚马特断裂与斜切天山的博罗科努断裂所夹持断块的南缘。地震仅对石河子南山矿区所属的红沟煤矿、小沟煤矿与沙湾县煤矿等50、60年代建造的部分危房造成了轻微的破坏，大部分地区的房屋基本完好。造成地震灾害减轻的主要原因为多条断裂的隔震作用与居民点位于山区较平缓地带、场地条件较好等因素。     

大桥水库MS4.6级诱发地震的初步研究

2002年3月3日大桥水库诱发了Ms4．6级水库地震，其发震构造是安宁河东支断裂近傍具有正断层性质的一个分支断裂。据大桥台网7年多库区地震观测事件记录，地震空间分布上水体附近有一个明显的活跃过程，大坝上游发生小震群，大坝下游发生主震序列。地震的震源深度在蓄水前后有明显变化。4．6级地震的震源机制解的主压应力轴方位和倾角与大多数活动断裂上的地震有明显的差别，主压应力轴的倾角与其它的水库地震相比也存在较大差别。     

昆仑Ms 8.1地震前青藏块体北、东缘水平运动变形的关联特征

青藏块体东北缘和川滇GPS监测区1991(1993)、1999和2001年高精度GPS观测资料揭示：2001年11月14日昆仑Ms8．1地震前，青藏块体北、东缘构造区域水平运动变形场动态演变具有一定的关联性特征。即：在继承性运动总体背景下，临近大震发生时两区域运动强度同步减弱且变形状态发生变化。结合地质构造分析研究认为，昆仑Ms8．1地震前，青藏块体边界运动变形的关联性变化与大震孕育后期大范围应力应变快速积累所形成的扰动应力场有关；随着块体内部大震的发生、应变能的大量释放和构造应力场的调整，可能会促使块体边界地带具有较高应变积累的相关构造部位(尤其是未被历史强震破裂贯通的地带)的应力应变的进一步积累或破裂释放。     

顺义地裂缝成因与顺义-良乡断裂北段第四纪活动性讨论

本文通过钻孔地层对比方法研究了顺义一良乡断裂北段的第四纪活动性，资料显示该断裂在第四纪期间呈现强弱交替的分期活动特征，距今315万年以来有3个较强活动期和3个较弱活动期，前三者分别距今266～315、171～228、73～147万年，后三者距今分别为228．266、147～171、0～73万年。中更新世晚期以来断裂活动不明显。超量开采地下水导致地面不均匀沉降是造成顺义地裂缝现今活动的主要原因。     

乾陵地震台DSC-2A型数据采集器雷害故障与处理

通过对乾陵地震台DSC2A型数据采集器雷害故障现象特征、诊断修复过程、故障原因等的分析,提出了数据采集器雷害故障检修的一般步骤方法,并认为,数据采集器内部模拟输入通道转换继电器和通道程控放大电路ICL7650集成运放块易遭雷击损坏,是故障率较高的部件。     

关于数字化记录中前兆信号的分析

介绍了如何用MATLAB工具软件—小波分析的基本理论对数字信号进行数字滤波,着重分析和研究了呼和浩特地震台形变观测资料出现各种信号,提出了小波分析理论对台站实际工作的重要性。     

格尔木井水温异常特征及其与地震关系分析

简要介绍了格尔木井水温动态观测的环境与条件,在研究正常动态特征和影响因素的基础上,对水温异常的映震关系进行了分析,并成功地进行了一次短临地震趋势预测。探讨了水温异常的形成原因。