胶北地体荆山群禄格庄组沉积时代与物源 ——来自山东沐浴店地区长石石英岩碎屑锆石U-Pb年龄与稀土元素的新证据

荆山群禄格庄组是胶北地体古元古代变沉积岩系最重要的组成部分之一,准确测定其原岩沉积时代与物质源区,对进一步探讨荆山群与粉子山群之间的成因关系具有重要的地质意义.以山东莱阳沐浴店地区出露的禄格庄组长石石英岩为研究对象,通过对长石石英岩中碎屑锆石内部矿物包体、阴极发光图像、LA-ICP-MS U-Pb定年与稀土元素组成的综...     

黄土山区煤层群分层开采地表位移规律分析

为了研究黄土山区地形对煤层群开采地表位移的影响,以榆林某矿为地质原型,利用数值软件模拟地表为近水平、正坡、负坡、凸面和凹面五种地形条件下煤层群开采。结果表明:黄土山区地形的变化,对煤层群开采顶板垂直应力影响不明显,对地表位移影响较大;单向坡开采,斜坡滑移引起的下沉量在坡顶与开采沉陷量形成“叠加”,在坡底形成“抵消”;在组合坡中,煤层群开采地表位移量相差很大,说明在变坡点附近地表位移较为复杂。     

中国地震滑坡危险性评估及其对国土空间规划的影响研究

中国是世界上地震滑坡灾害最为严重的国家之一.考虑地质构造、地形地貌、地层岩性、河流、地震动参数等6类影响因素,针对50年超越概率10％的抗震设防水准,分别开展了基于信息量模型和Newmark模型的地震滑坡危险性评估.基于最不利原则对两项结果进行地震滑坡危险性综合分区,揭示了中国地震滑坡高危险区集中在南北构造带、青藏高原...     

Political ecology of tiger conservation in India: Adverse effects of banning customary practices in a protected area

Protected areas have had significant impacts on local communities primarily through the physical removal of people. In some instances, people continue to live within protected areas due to the inability of the state to evict them. The restrictions on livelihoods placed on people living inside protected areas lead to in situ displacement. We show how conservation enclosures in the Biligiri Rangaswamy Temple Tiger Reserve have produced a class of people that the state ‘lets die’ by banning customary practices such as fire use, hunting and harvesting of forest produce. Using longitudinal ethnographic, socio‐economic and ecological data, we demonstrate that conservation policy has alienated indigenous forest dwellers from their agricultural and forest‐land. The outcomes of conservation policy include dispossession through increased crop losses, reduced income from agriculture and forest produce, as well as a forest that is dominated by weeds due to fire suppression. The ban on hunting in particular has increased wildlife densities, which has enabled the state to accumulate revenues through the establishment of wildlife tourism facilities. All in all, centralized protected area governance has changed the relationships among people, forest and the state in a way that has produced adverse effects for both livelihoods and the ecosystem.     

一种基于卫星遥感的临近预报方法

中尺度对流系统(MCS)是形成强对流天气的主要原因,云团在MCS生命周期中的分裂合并问题是临近预报的难点。为解决这一问题,本文提出了FCC方法,该方法使用质心位移和FY-2卫星数据预测多个对流单体的运动轨迹。多个案例分析证明,FCC算法在MCS的各个生命周期均能进行有效的预测,包括初生、成熟和消散阶段。此外,通过列联表方法验证了所提算法的有效性。     

一种基于M估计的Robust-ELM滑坡位移预测方法

采用传统ELM算法进行滑坡位移预测时,其网络输出权值由最小二乘估计得出,导致ELM抗差能力较差,从而造成网络训练参数不准确。为此,将M估计与ELM相结合,提出一种基于M估计的RobustELM滑坡变形预测方法。该方法利用加权最小二乘方法来取代最小二乘法计算ELM输出权值,以减少滑坡监测数据中粗差对ELM预测的干扰。分别以链子崖、古树屋滑坡体为例,将Robust-ELM进行了单维、多维粗差的抵御性验证。结果表明,该方法能够有效降低粗差对预测的影响,具有良好的抗差能力。     

基墨里造山与松潘-甘孜锂矿链成因的探讨

晚三叠世—早侏罗世,基墨里大陆和泛华夏陆块与欧亚大陆的碰撞,形成了4000 km 长的基墨里造山带。位于三大陆之间、现今青藏高原北部的松潘 甘孜地体的造山属性的确定,对于探索松潘 甘孜锂矿链的成因有重要意义。松潘 甘孜地体西部和北部的早侏罗世陆相火山岩、底砾岩和煤系地层(~201 Ma)不整合在晚三叠世褶皱地层及花岗岩体之上,为晚三叠世—早侏罗世的基墨里造山时限提供了直接证据。松潘 甘孜地体中的甲基卡、可尔因、扎乌龙和白龙山 大红柳滩等稀有金属矿集区具有共同特征：赋存在由核部高分异S型花岗岩和幔部中晚三叠世浊积岩组成的片麻岩穹隆构造中、经历了巴罗 巴肯变质作用、含锂伟晶岩脉侵位在花岗岩体上部的伸展空间。通过对松潘 甘孜地体区域地质调查和对矿集区的变质、变形、岩浆和成矿作用及同位素年代学研究,提出该地体经历晚三叠世—早中侏罗世的基墨里造山过程：① 230~220 Ma：地壳缩短和加厚阶段,以盖层大规模强烈褶皱、逆冲带,盖层与基底之间向南的滑脱变形为特征,伴随深熔和巴罗式变质作用;② 220~190 Ma：地壳减压折返阶段,大量花岗岩侵位在中晚三叠世浊积岩中、形成片麻岩穹隆并伴随巴肯式变质作用。由于花岗质岩浆的高度分异及岩浆不混溶作用,导致侵位在片麻岩穹隆顶部伸展空间的伟晶岩稀有金属富集成矿。此外,伟晶岩型锂矿科学钻探(JSD)揭示了甲基卡矿集区多层次穹状花岗岩席控制含锂伟晶岩脉的成矿机制,推测大规模中下地壳基底深熔驱动岩浆上升,岩浆体沿上地壳中的构造面推叠形成岩席。     

A time-dependent numerical model of the mild-slope equation

On the basis of the previous studies, the simplest hyperbolic mild-slope equation has been gained and the linear time-dependent numerical model for the water wave propagation has been established combined with different boundary conditions. Through computing the effective surface displacement and transforming into the real transient wave motion, related wave factors will be calculated. Compared with Lin’s model, analysis shows that calculation stability of the present model is enhanced efficiently, because the truncation errors of this model are only contributed by the dissipation terms, but those of Lin’s model are induced by the convection terms, dissipation terms and source terms. The tests show that the present model succeeds the merit in Lin’s model and the computational program is simpler, the computational time is shorter, and the computational stability is enhanced efficiently. The present model has the capability of simulating transient wave motion by correctly predicting at the speed of wave propagation, which is important for the real-time forecast of the arrival time of surface waves generated in the deep sea. The model is validated against analytical solution for wave diffraction and experimental data for combined wave refraction and diffraction over a submerged elliptic shoal on a slope. Good agreements are obtained. The model can be applied to the theory research an d engineering applications about the wave propagation in a biggish area.     

On the use of iterative re-weighting least-squares and outlier detection for empirically modelling rates of vertical displacement

The proper identification and removal of outliers in the combination of rates of vertical displacements derived from GPS, tide gauges/satellite altimetry, and GRACE observations is presented. Outlier detection is a necessary pre-screening procedure in order to ensure reliable estimates of stochastic properties of the observations in the combined least-squares adjustment (via rescaling of covariance matrices) and to ensure that the final vertical motion model is not corrupted and/or distorted by erroneous data. Results from this study indicate that typical data snooping methods are inadequate in dealing with these heterogeneous data sets and their stochastic properties. Using simulated vertical displacement rates, it is demonstrated that a large variety of outliers (random scattered and adjacent, as well as jointly influential) can be dealt with if an iterative re-weighting least-squares adjustment is combined with a robust median estimator. Moreover, robust estimators are efficient in areas weakly constrained by the data, where even high quality observations may appear to be erroneous if their estimates are largely influenced by outliers. Four combined models for the vertical motion in the region of the Great Lakes are presented. The computed vertical displacements vary between  − 2 mm/year (subsidence) along the southern shores and 3 mm/year (uplift) along the northern shores. The derived models provide reliable empirical constraints and error bounds for postglacial rebound models in the region.     

条带开采地表沉陷预计参数的确定

概率积分法是条带开采地表移动和变形预计常用的方法,而概率积分法预计的精度取决于其预计参数的确定。以国内大量的条带开采实测资料为基础,应用相似理论对条带开采地表沉陷的相似现象进行了模糊聚类分析,计算出了条带开采地表沉陷预计参数。根据所得条带开采地表沉陷相似现象的分类及其地表沉陷预计参数,应用模式识别对待求条带开采地表沉陷预计参数进行了求取。工程实例表明,用模糊优化确定的预计参数进行条带开采地表移动和变形预计,其预计结果更加可靠、准确。