The interannual and decadal variability of the sea level in the Japan/East Sea

Sea level observed by altimeter during the 1993–2007 period and the thermosteric sea level from 1945 through 2005 obtained by using the global ocean temperature data sets recently published are used to investigate the interannual and decadal variability of the sea level in the Japan/East Sea (JES) and its response to El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Both the interannual variations of the sea level observed by altimeter and those of the thermosteric sea level obtained from reanalyzed data in the JES are closely related to ENSO. As a result, one important consequence is that the sea level trends are mainly caused by the thermal expansion in the JES. An ‘enigma’ is revealed that the correlation between the thermosteric sea level and ENSO during the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) warm phase (post mid-1970s) is inconsistent with that during the cold phase (pre mid-1970s) in the JES. The thermosteric sea level trends and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) suggest a strong negative correlation during the period 1977–1998, whereas there appears a relatively weak positive correlation during the period 1945–1976 in the JES. Based on the SODA (Simple Oceanographic Data Assimilation) datasets, possible mechanisms of the interannual and decadal variability of the sea level in the JES are discussed. Comprehensive analysis reveals that the negative anomalies of SOI correspond to the positive anomalies of the southeast wind stress, the net advective heat flux and the sea level in the JES during the PDO warm phase. During the PDO cold phase, the negative anomalies of SOI correspond to the positive anomalies of the southwest wind stress, the negative anomalies of the net advective heat flux and the sea level in the JES.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: Hillslope Processes. Binghamton Symposia in Geomorphology International Series: 16. Athol D. Abrahams , ed. The Atlas of Central America and the Caribbean. The Diagram Group . The Cultural Atlas of Islam. Isma'il R. al Faruqi and Lois Lamaya'al Faruqi . Atlas of Israel Contemporary Africa: Development, Culture and the State. Morag Bell . Fundamentals of Physical Geography. David Briggs and Peter Smithson . The Bicentennial Census: New Directions for Methodology in 1990. Constance F. Citro and Michael L. Cohen , eds . World Patterns of Modern Urban Change: Essays in Honor of Chauncy D. Harris. Michael P. Conzen , ed . New Directions for Agriculture and Agricultural Research: Neglected Dimensions and Emerging Alternatives. Kenneth A. Dahlberg , ed . Water Resources Atlas of Florida. E.A. Fernald and D.J. Patton , eds . Landscape Ecology. R.T.T. Forman and M. Godron . The Myth of the North American City: Continentalism Challenged. Michael Goldberg and John Mercer . The Permafrost Environment. Stuart A. Harris . Climate and Circulation of the Tropics. Stefan Hastenrath . The Island of South Georgia. Robert Headland . The Making of Urban Europe, 1000-1950. Paul M. Hohenberg and Lynn Hollen Lees . Bombay in Transition: The Growth and Social Ecology of a Colonial City, 1889–1980. Meera Kosambi . Plant Closings; Public or Private Choices? Richard B. McKenzie , ed . Malaysia: Tradition, Modernity and Islam. R.S. Milne and Diane K. Mauzy . Technology on the Frontier: Mining in Old Ontario. Dianne Newell . The Maritime Political Boundaries of the World. J.R.V. Prescott . Tall Office Buildings in the United States. James W. Pygman and Richard Kateley (Real Estate Research Corporation). Technology, Regions, and Policy. John Rees , ed . The United States and the Regional Organization of Asia and the Pacific: 1965-1985. W.W. Rostow . Renewable Energy: Progress, Prospects. Stephen W. Sawyer Wisconsin Foundations. Gwen Schultz . Dwelling, Place and Environment: Towards a Phenomenology of Person and World. David Seamon and Robert Mugerauer , eds . Power and Place: Canadian Urban Development in the North American Context. Gilbert A. Stelter and Alan F.J. Artibise , eds . Small Firms in Regional Economic Development: Britain, Ireland and the United States. D. J. Storey , ed . Mathematical Methods in Human Geography and Planning. A. G. Wilson and R. J. Bennett . El Niño North: Niño Effects on the Eastern Subarctic Pacific Ocean. W. S. Wooster and D. L. Fluharty , eds . The Soviet Iron and Steel Industry. Craig ZumBrunnen and Jeffrey Osleeb .     

两种低频信息的关联和形成差异的原因

在变振幅的数据分析中 ,低频信号可以反映在低频分析结果中 ,也可以体现在高频信号的振幅变化中。本文将其分别称为滤波低频信号和变幅低频信号。两种低频信号有很好的相关性 ,也存在明显差别。研究结果表明 ,滤波低频信号反映了过程整体性的上升或下降 ,变幅低频信号反映了极大值与极小值之间差异的缩小或加大。两种低频信号的差异多源于原始信号极大值与极小值变化过程之间的关系。在本文的例子中 ,冬季气温变化占优势时两种低频信号的滑动相关系数为正值 ;夏季气温变化占优势是导致两种低频信号差异的根本原因 ,在物理上表现为一定发生了强大的异常过程 ,打破了气温正常变化的秩序。大连站的气温变化主要受制于北方的冷空气过程 ,但当厄尔尼诺事件发生时 ,热带的暖过程大大加强 ,导致两种低频信号发生明显的差异。从 1965～ 2 0 0 3年 ,滑动相关系数共出现 6次负时段 ,都对应着厄尔尼诺事件。因此 ,在低频过程的研究中 ,需要用滤波低频信号研究整体性的低频变化。但是 ,在希望获取导致整体变化的主要成分时需要使用变幅低频信号。另外 ,在揭示异常过程时需要用滑动相关系数来发现两种低频信号的差异 ,提取异常信息。     

历史文化名城名胜组景的时空演变特征研究——以金陵四十八景为例

名胜组景是一定地域范围内景观的组合,是历史文化名城的重要城市地标和旅游资源。以南京的金陵四十八景为例,研究名胜组景的时空演变特征。研究发现:金陵古代名胜组景依赖于自然地理环境,密集分布在长江、钟山、秦淮河等山脉和河流附近,同时也受人文地理界线的影响,较集中于南京城墙内;民国至当代的金陵四十八景的空间分布呈现东进南延北拓态势,逐步扩散至人文地理边界以外的外城郭,进而扩散到郊区县市(江北、高淳、溧水)。名胜组景的这种时空变迁特征与城市变迁存在强烈的关联。历史文化名城的组景景观可划分为自然景观和人文景观。金陵四十八景的时间演进过程中呈现自然景观数量减少、人文景观数量增多的趋势,景观景名、排序等存在较大的差异。古今游憩偏好的变化、旅游需求的变化、历史文化景观的积累、宗教变革、土地利用、社会职能的转变、时代文化的差异都对此产生一定程度的影响。     

Interannual variations of surface winds over China marginal seas

In a study of surface monsoon winds over the China marginal seas, Sun et al. (2012) use singular value decomposition method to identify regional dominant modes and analyze their interdecadal variability. This paper continues to evaluate the interannual variability of each dominant mode and its relation to various atmospheric, oceanic and land factors. The findings include: 1) The intensity of the winter monsoon over the East China Sea is highly correlated with the Siberian High intensity and anti-correlated with the latitudinal position of the Aleutian Low as well as the rainfall in eastern China, Korean Peninsula and Japan; 2) The western Pacific subtropical high is significantly correlated with the summer monsoon intensity over the East China Sea and anti-correlated with the summer monsoon over the South China Sea; 3) The winter monsoon in a broad zonal belt through the Luzon Strait is dominated by the ENSO signal, strengthening in the La Ni a phase and weakening in the El Ni o phase. This inverse relation exhibits interdecadal shift with a period of weak correlation in the 1980s; 4) Analysis of tidal records validates the interdecadal weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon and reveals an atmospheric bridge that conveys the ENSO signal into the South China Sea via the winter monsoon.     

碎石类土极限承载力标准值表的研究

以可靠度理论为基础的极限状态设计法是当今世界工程设计领域的发展趋势,地基基础要应用可靠度理论进行设计是一大难点,而地基极限承栽力标准值的确定是最重要的方面。利用原制订基本承载力时的荷载试验资料,再补充收集了一部分新资料,重新提出极限承载力,找出极限承栽力与基本承载力的关系值K(安全系数),将K值乘以基本承载力表,并以公式计算值及林业部标准进行比较。综合得出极限承载力范围值表,在此基础上进行概率分析,得出极限承载力标准值。通过直接或间接的方法求得极限承载力标准值变异系数。     

喀什地区近43年沙尘暴、扬沙天气

根据喀什地区11个气象观测站的地面气象记录月报表，分析了1961～2003年沙尘暴和扬沙天气现象资料，给出了近43年喀什地区沙尘暴和扬沙天气的时空分布特征及其历史演变特征。结果表明：喀什地区沙尘暴和扬沙发生频率较高，大部分县市是沙尘暴的多发区和易发区、扬沙的高频区和多发区；沙尘暴和扬沙平原地区主要发生春季中后期及夏初，山区主要发生在春季；沙尘暴历史演变总体以减少为主，扬沙平原地区逐渐减少，相反高山站塔什库尔干呈增加态势，沙尘暴和扬沙的减少均是在波动中减少的。     

我国大陆极端高温基于去趋势波动及排列熵法的时空分布特征研究

为进一步掌握我国大陆极端高温的时空分布特征,利用去趋势波动分析法确定全国83 个站点极端高温阈值,通过排列熵方法检测全国10 个区的极端高温周期和突变。结果表明,我国大陆极端高温频数主要以7 年、10～13 年和16～20 年三大周期变化;突变主要发生在1960 年代、1970 年代末和1980 年代初;1950 年代初极端高温频率年值最大,而后急剧下降,直至1980 年代中后期才出现明显的增长趋势;极端高温年频数均值南方较北方大,且大、小频数分布区域集中。      

全球稀土贸易网络的动态演变与影响机制————基于产业链的视角

基于稀土产业链视角,通过依赖关系构建稀土初级加工品、中级加工品和制成品贸易网络,运用社会网络分析法和动态指数随机图模型对稀土贸易网络结构演变特征及其影响机制进行对比分析。结果表明：① 3个环节稀土贸易网络均呈现向复杂网络演变的趋势,且稀土中级加工品贸易网络的变化趋势依次领先于稀土制成品和初级加工品贸易网络;② 从主干结构看,3个环节稀土贸易网络依次由欧洲主导向欧美并立演变、由中国主导向欧亚并立演变、由欧美亚三足鼎立向亚洲主导演变;③ 中国在3个环节稀土贸易网络中均发展成为直接影响力前三甲国家（地区）,但其领先优势逐渐缩小,而间接影响力仅在初级加工品和制成品网络进入前三甲行列,且增幅较小;④ 互惠、三角形、星形辐射和星形扩张结构效应对3个环节稀土贸易网络动态演变具有显著的异质性影响。     

初始误差对双环流变异可预报性的影响

使用球坐标下1.5 层约化重力浅水模式模拟海洋风生双环流, 结果显示双环流射流存在拉伸模态和收缩模态间的年际变化。以双环流从拉伸模态向收缩模态的转变过程为背景场, 利用条件非线性最优扰动(CNOP)方法, 考察初始误差对双环流变异可预报性的影响, 得到两类初始误差: 全局CNOP型和局部CNOP(LCNOP)型, 两类初始误差对双环流变异的影响几乎相反。通过考察误差发展, 发现在射流从拉伸模态向收缩模态转变过程中, CNOP 型初始误差使射流弯曲程度变大, 并在预报时刻导致涡脱落; 而LCNOP 型初始误差则使射流弯曲程度变小。相比LCNOP, CNOP 型初始误差引起更大预报误差, 导致双环流变异的预报技巧下降更多。两类误差得到较大发展的区域可能存在正压不稳定, 使误差能够不断从背景场吸收能量进而得到快速发展。给出了两类使双环流变异预报技巧下降最大的初始误差, 在实际的数值预报中减少这两种类型的误差, 将有助于提高双环流变异的预报技巧。