四川地区短时强降水事件时空演变特征研究

利用四川地区自动气象站逐小时降水观测资料,分析了2010~2019年5~9月短时强降水事件24h累计降水量、频次和强度的时空分布特征,探讨了短时强降水事件发生的频次、极值分布及其与地形、海拔高度等的关系。结果表明：四川地区平均24h累计降雨量基本在50mm以上,盆地东北部、西南部、南部及阿坝州东部甚至超过100mm,最大值出现在广安,达175mm。四川地区短时强降水事件开始时间的日变化特征表现为“V”型结构的夜间峰值位相,事件持续时段多为傍晚至凌晨,时长可达10h以上,最长甚至可持续22h。在强降水事件极值的日变化上,极大值频次和降水量呈单峰结构,在03时达到最大,其后逐渐减小至15时达到谷值,而后再次增大;降水强度呈弱双峰结构,分别在04时和16时达到谷值,13时和18时达到峰值,其日变化呈“增-减-增-减”的特征。四川短时强降水事件与复杂地形有密切的关系,5~6月事件活跃区在四川盆地中部,7月在盆地西部的龙门山脉一带,8月在雅安、乐山附近,9月在盆地北部且频次明显减少;短时强降水事件的最大小时雨强可达80mm以上,出现在7~8月的盆地西部龙门山一带和南部地区。短时强降水事件随着海拔高度的增加,发生频次和日数逐渐减少,海拔2000m以上地区基本无强降水发生日出现( 峨眉山气象站例外)。     

基于机器学习的稀疏样本下的土壤有机质估算方法

采用GRNN（Generalized Regression Neural Network）和RF（Random Forest）2种机器学习方法构建土壤有机质预测模型,以提高稀疏样本情况下的土壤有机质估算精度。依据北京市大兴区农用地2007年的土壤有机质采样数据,按MMSD准则（Minimization of the Mean of the Shortest Distances）抽稀为8种不同采样密度的样本（分别为2703、1352、676、339、169、85、43、22个样本）,分别采用GRNN、RF和Ordinary kriging对各采样密度下的未知采样点进行预测,采用交叉检验的方式验证各采样密度下未知样点的预测精度。随着采样点密度的下降,样点间的空间自相关性逐渐减弱,半变异函数的拟和精度变差,预测点结果误差增大,预测的置信度降低。当抽稀到43个和22个采样点时,样点间的空间自相关性接近歼灭,半变异函数的决定系数较低且残差较大。普通克里格受到采样点数量和采样密度、样点的空间结构的影响比较明显,其预测精度随采样点数量的下降而下降。在85个采样点及以下时,其预测值与观测值之间没有显著的相关性。GRNN和RF的预测精度受采样密度的影响不大,其预测精度在一个较小的范围内波动,其预测值围绕观测值在一定阈值空间内震荡波动,具有较好的相关性,在85个及以下的采样密度时,预测精度相对普通克里格有较大的提升。普通克里格法不适合在稀疏样本条件下空间插值计算,尤其是在空间自相关性比较弱的情况下。机器学习模型能充分学习土壤间环境信息、样点空间邻近效应信息,兼顾属性相似性和空间自相关,具有更好的稳定性和适应性,不容易受到采样点数量、构型和采样密度等因素的影响,即使在采样点空间自相关性很弱的情况下也能做出稳定预测精度。     

Modelling the compliance of crustal rock—II. Response to temporal changes before earthquakes

There have been several claims that seismic shear waves respond to changes in stress before earthquakes. The companion paper develops a stress-sensitive model (APE) for the behaviour of low-porosity low-permeability crystalline rocks containing pervasive distributions of fluid-filled intergranular microcracks, and this paper uses APE to model the behaviour before earthquakes. Modelling with APE shows that the microgeometry and statistics of distributions of such fluid-filled microcracks respond almost immediately to changes in stress, and that the behaviour can be monitored by analysing seismic shear-wave splitting. The physical reasons for the coupling between shear-wave splitting and differential stress are discussed.
In this paper, we extend the model by using percolation theory to show that large crack densities are limited at the grain-scale level by the percolation threshold at which interacting crack clusters lead to pronounced increases in rock-matrix permeability. In the simplest formulation, the modelling is dimensionless and almost entirely constrained without free parameters. Nevertheless, APE modelling of the evolution of fluid-saturated rocks under stress reproduces the observed fracture criticality and the narrow range of shear-wave azimuthal anisotropy in crustal rocks. It also reproduces the behaviour of temporal variations in shear-wave splitting observed before and after the 1986, M = 6, North Palm Springs earthquake, Southern California, and several other smaller earthquakes.
The agreement of APE modelling with a wide range of observations confirms that fluid-saturated crystalline rocks are stress-sensitive and respond to changes in stress by critical fluid-rock interactions at the microscale level. This means that the effects of changes in stress and other parameters can be numerically modelled and monitored by appropriate observations of seismic shear waves.     

Joint processing and analysis of seismic gravity measurements in Capital Circle area

In Capital Circle area, there are three groups of repeated gravity measurements observed by different institutes using different instruments or methods. The simultaneous adjustment of absolute and relative measurements and the elimination of systematic error among the relative measurements have been carded out in this paper. Thus an unified temporal gravity change system with absolute reference has been established. On the basis of this, the crustal subsidence effect on gravity, which belongs to non-tectonic factor, is analyzed and the station displacement corrections are carried out, so that the long-wave disturbance is eliminated. So far our following aims are realized： the advantages of the absolute and relative measurement methods are complementary to each other; the contradiction and environment disturbance are eliminated; the amounts of information are enlarged; the sampling interval of time domain is compressed. In a word, the ability of identifying the tectonic activity process is enhanced. The results show that： there are systematic errors between the two groups of relative measurements and within the data of 10 campaigns ; the uneven local crustal subsidence in the southeast of the study area results in a linear rise of gravity value at 10 stations; they can be corrected by the regression analysis. The maps of revised temporal gravity change can obviously and integrally reflect the Ms=5.0 earthquake in Guye on October 6, 1995.     

1981—2020年贵州省降雪时空分布特征

利用1981—2020年贵州省降雪日数、初始日期、终止日期资料,分析了贵州降雪的气候特征,以及降雪日数与海拔高度、纬度的关系。结果表明：1） 贵州降雪日数西北多、南少,大值中心位于贵州西北部;降雪日数整体偏少,呈逐渐减小的趋势,2012年为突变点,整体上降雪日数每10 a减少1.6 d。降雪从11月开始出现,持续到次年3月,主要集中在冬季;开始时间集中在08—10时和20—21时;降雪具有明显的间歇性特征,降雪天气过程中仅发生1次降雪的占全部降雪过程的48.1%,主要在贵州南部,持续3 d及以上的过程集中在贵州中北部。2） 降雪初始日期集中在12、1月,最早11月;终止日期集中在2、3月,最晚4月。贵州中北部开始降雪多为12月,终止降雪多为2月;南部初始多为1月,终止降雪多为1—2月。贵州中北部降雪期更长,开始到结束间隔约为60—129 d,而南部大部为40 d以下,全省平均54 d。3） 降雪日数随着海拔高度每升高100 m增加2.3 d,纬度每增加1°增加11.4 d。     

Evidence of earthquakes triggered by the tidal force of the sun and the moon

Studies by many scientists show that Hebei, China is an area with strong correlation between the tidal force and the occurrences of major earthquakes, the Xingtai earthquake of 1966, the Hejian earthquake of 1967 and the Tangshan earthquake of 1976 were triggered by the tidal force, in this paper the study on the common characteristics of their occurrence times confirms these facts. The computed times of maximum horizontal of the semi diurnal solid tide tidal force show that the occurrence times of the above mentioned earthquakes were close to the times of maximum horizontal tidal force of the semi diurnal solid tide at new moon or full moon. The Longyao earthquake of M=6.8, the Ningjin earthquake of M=7.2 and the Hejian earthquake of M=6.3 occurred tens of minutes after the maximum horizontal tidal force of the semi diurnal solid tides, and the Tangshan earthquake of M=7.8 occurred 16 minutes before the maximum horizontal tidal force. The tidal forces were directed to the west. This is their temporal characteristic. It is generally accepted that the 1969 Bohai earthquake of M=7.4 and the 1975 Haicheng earthquake were not triggered by the tidal force. These events did not show such characteristics. The temporal characteristics of the earthquakes indicate that the occurrences of these events were not random, but were controlled by the tidal force from the sun and the moon, and triggered by the tidal force. These facts agree with the triggering mechanism of the tidal force, are evidences of earthquakes triggered by tidal force.     

Study on the Global Carbon Assimilation System Based on Multisource Remote Sensing Data

The Paris agreement signed in April, 2016 aims to balance global anthropogenic carbon emissions and terrestrial carbon sinks by the middle of the 21^st century. To fulfill this goal, it is necessary to calculate carbon fluxes of different regions reliably. The global carbon assimilation system is an effective technique for achieving this goal. The Ministry of Science and Technology of China supports the project entitled as study on the global carbon assimilation system based on multisource remote sensing data through the national key research and development programs for global change and adaptation during the thirteen-five period. This project will develop synergic inversion techniques for retrieving key parameters of biological and atmospheric cycles and for assimilating multisource remote sensing and ground based data. Then, the high resolution global carbon assimilation system coupled with an ecological model will be constructed. This system is able to assimilate jointly multisource observation data and to optimize key model parameters, photosynthesis and respiration carbon fluxes of global terrestrial ecosystems, and anthropogenic carbon emission fluxes of key regions. This system will be used to study quantitatively the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon fluxes of global terrestrial ecosystems and anthropogenic carbon emission fluxes of key regions and to identify the mechanisms driving the global terrestrial carbon sinks and sources. The outputs of this study will be helpful for the fulfillment of the key research and development programs for global change and adaptation and provide valuable data and technical support for the decision-making in China.     

WITSEG集沙仪:风洞用多路集沙仪

风沙流通量廓线(风沙流结构)是以不同轨迹运动的沙粒在垂直方向上的宏观反映。建立风沙流通量廓线函数需要测定不同高度的输沙率。为此,我们设计了适用于风洞实验的多路集沙仪(WITSEG集沙仪),并通过风洞实验对其进行了检验。WITSEG集沙仪高60 cm,由60个进沙口和集沙盒组成,每个进沙口高1 cm。该集沙仪可以测量风沙流中60个不同高度的输沙率。在设计WITSEG集沙仪时,着重实用性和集沙效率。为了使用方便,带有进沙口的入口段、集沙盒和保护盖板设计为活动式。为了提高集沙效率,入口段设计成楔形,使得进沙口宽0.5 cm,而集沙盒宽度为1.5 cm。每个集沙盒留有两个过滤网排气孔,以减小集沙盒内的静压、提高采集效率。风洞实验检验表明,用WITSEG集沙仪测得的风沙流结构和总输沙率与风速的关系与已广泛接受的结论非常一致。WITSEG集沙仪能观测输沙率随高度的详细变化,是研究风沙流结构的较好工具。     

IDL在青藏铁路地理信息系统中的应用研究

GIS二次开发中通常使用的GIS组件方法,大多受到开发商限制或组件提供的扩展接口不能满足系统功能需求的限制.在青藏铁路地理信息系统中为满足应用需求,采用了"IDL+C#+ArcS-DE"的开发模式,将IDL集成到青藏铁路地理信息系统的体系结构中,并利用IDL实现了GIS的功能.最后阐述了利用IDL进行时态钻孔数据分析、处理及可视化过程和冻土模型输出结果的可视化过程.