Developing land use scenario dynamics model by the integration of system dynamics model and cellular automata model

Models of land use change are useful tools for un-derstanding the analysis of the cause and conse-quences of land use changes, assessing the impacts of land use system on ecological system and supporting land use planning and policy[1,2]. Modeling land use scenario changes and its potential impacts on the structure and function of the ecosystem in the typical regions are regarded as one of the good ways to un-derstand the interactive mechanism between land use system and ecological system[3―10…     

Dynamics and driving mechanisms of asymmetric human water consumption during alternating wet and dry periods

Increases in human water consumption (HWC) and consequent degradation of the ecological environment are common in arid regions. Understanding the mechanisms behind these processes is important for sustainable development. Analyses of changes in HWC between alternating wet and dry periods are carried out in four arid inland basins in Central Asia and China (Syr Darya, Tarim, Heihe and Shulehe river basins). Based on runoff records, the presence of an asymmetric HWC response is proved (p < 0.01), with an increase in HWC during wet periods and a muted decrease during subsequent dry periods. This behaviour is interpreted by invoking theories from behavioural economics at the individual and community levels. A simple model based on these theories is shown to be able to reproduce the observed dynamics and is used to discuss the importance of strengthening institutional factors for water sustainability.     

On stellar encounters and their effect on cometary orbits in the Oort cloud

We systematically investigate the encounters between the Sun and neighbouring stars and their effects on cometary orbits in the Oort cloud, including the intrinsic one with the star Gl 710 (HIP 89 825), with some implications to stellar and cometary dynamics. Our approach is principally based on the combination of a Keplerian‐rectilinear model of stellar passages and the Hipparcos Catalogue (ESA 1997). Beyond the parameters of encounter, we pay particular attention to the observational errors in parallaxes and stellar velocities, and their propagation in time. Moreover, as a special case of this problem, we consider the collision probability of a star passing very closely to the Sun, taking also into account the mutual gravitational attraction between the stars. In the part dealing with the influence of stellar encounters on the orbital elements of Oort cloud comets, we derive new simple formulae calculating the changes in the cometary orbital elements, expressed as functions of the Jeans impulse formula. These expressions are then applied to calculate numerical values of the element changes caused by close encounters of neighbouring stars with some model comets in the Oort cloud. Moreover, the general condition for an ejection of comets from the cloud effected by a single encounter is derived and discussed.     

Quantifying flow resistance in mountain streams using computational fluid dynamics modeling over structure-from-motion photogrammetry-derived microtopography

Flow resistance in mountain streams is important for assessing flooding hazard and quantifying sediment transport and bedrock incision in upland landscapes. In such settings, flow resistance is sensitive to grain-scale roughness, which has traditionally been characterized by particle size distributions derived from laborious point counts of streambed sediment. Developing a general framework for rapid quantification of resistance in mountain streams is still a challenge. Here we present a semi-automated workflow that combines millimeter- to centimeter-scale structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry surveys of bed topography and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations to better evaluate surface roughness and rapidly quantify flow resistance in mountain streams. The workflow was applied to three field sites of gravel, cobble, and boulder-bedded channels with a wide range of grain size, sorting, and shape. Large-eddy simulations with body-fitted meshes generated from SfM photogrammetry-derived surfaces were performed to quantify flow resistance. The analysis of bed microtopography using a second-order structure function identified three scaling regimes that corresponded to important roughness length scales and surface complexity contributing to flow resistance. The standard deviation σ_z of detrended streambed elevation normalized by water depth, as a proxy for the vertical roughness length scale, emerges as the primary control on flow resistance and is furthermore tied to the characteristic length scale of rough surface-generated vortices. Horizontal length scales and surface complexity are secondary controls on flow resistance. A new resistance predictor linking water depth and vertical roughness scale, i.e.  H/σ_z, is proposed based on the comparison between σ_z and the characteristic length scale of vortex shedding. In addition, representing streambeds using digital elevation models (DEM) is appropriate for well-sorted streambeds, but not for poorly sorted ones under shallow and medium flow depth conditions due to the missing local overhanging features captured by fully 3D meshes which modulate local pressure gradient and thus bulk flow separation and pressure distribution. An appraisal of the mesh resolution effect on flow resistance shows that the SfM photogrammetry data resolution and the optimal CFD mesh size should be about 1/7 to 1/14 of the standard deviation of bed elevation. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Instability of planetary flows using Riemann curvature: a numerical study

ABSTRACT

The instability of ideal non-divergent zonal flows on the sphere is determined numerically by the instability criterion of Arnold (Ann. Inst. Fourier 1966, 16, 319) for the sectional curvature. Zonal flows are unstable for all perturbations besides for a small set which are in approximate resonance. The planetary rotation is stable and the presence of rotation reduces the instability of perturbations.     

Numerical artifacts associated with Rayleigh and modal damping models of inelastic structures with massless coordinates

The paper presents a detailed reexamination of the effects of three damping models on the inelastic seismic response of structures with massless degrees of freedom. The models considered correspond to (a) Rayleigh damping based on current properties (tangent stiffness), (b) Rayleigh damping based on initial properties, and (c) modal damping. The results suggest that some nonzero damping forces/moments at massless DOFs obtained in multistory frames for the case of Rayleigh damping with tangent stiffness may be numerical artifacts rather than a deficiency of the damping model. The results also indicate that significant artificial numerical oscillations in the velocities of the secondary components of MDOF structures are introduced when modal damping or mass-proportional damping is used.     

晋冀蒙交界地区中小地震视应力时空分布特征

选取晋冀蒙交界地区固定和临时测震台网记录的2014-2016年地震波形资料,采用近震Brune模型,结合遗传算法,反演计算298次M_L ≥ 2.0中小地震视应力值,分析震源参数之间的标度关系,并按照震中分区,分析不同地区视应力时序变化特征及不同震级区间视应力空间分布特征,发现该区多处存在视应力高值现象,地震多发生于视应力高值异常及附近地区,与断裂带有一定对应关系。     

Dynamic simulation of tropical coral reef ecosystem being disturbed by multiple situations

In consideration of the rapid degradation of coral reef ecosystems, the establishment of models is helpful to comprehend the degradation mechanism of coral reef ecosystems and predict the development process of coral reef communities. According to the characteristics of complex ecosystem of tropical coral reefs in China, the coral reef functional group is the core level variable; combined with the multiple feedback effects of coral reef functional groups and environmental changes, the study presents a coral reef ecosystem dynamics model with hermatypic corals as the core. Based on the simulation of the assumed initial value and the internal feedback of the system, the results show that in the basic simulation(relative health conditions), the coverage area of live corals and coral reefs generally decreased first and then increased, and increased by 4.67% and 6.38% between2010 and 2050, respectively. Based on the calibration model and the current situation of the studied area, the multi-factor disturbance effects of coral reef communities were simulated and explored by setting up three scenarios involving fishing policy, terrestrial deposition, and inorganic nitrogen emissions. Among them, in the single factor disturbance, the fishing policy exerts the most direct impact on the community decline; and the succession phenomenon is obvious; the terrestrial sedimentation has a faster and more integrated effect on the community decline; the effect of inorganic nitrogen emission on the community decline is relatively slow. In the double/multi-factor disturbance, the superimposed disturbance will aggravate the multi-source feedback effect of the coral reef communities development, accelerate the community decay rate, and make its development trajectory more complicated and diverse. This method provides a scientific and feasible method for simulating the damage of long-term coral reef community and exploring the development law and adaptive management of coral reef ecosystems. In the future, it can be further studied in the ecological restoration process and decisionmaking direction of coral reefs.