How to increase technology transfers to developing countries: a synthesis of the evidence

The existing United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has failed to deliver the rate of low-carbon technology transfer (TT) required to curb GHG emissions in developing countries. This failure has exposed the limitations of universalism and renewed interest in bilateral approaches to TT. Gaps are identified in the UNFCCC approach to climate change TT: missing links between international institutions and the national enabling environments that encourage private investment; a non-differentiated approach for (developing) country and technology characteristics; and a lack of clear measurements of the volume and effectiveness of TTs. Evidence from econometric literature and business experience on climate change TT is reviewed, so as to address the identified pitfalls of the UNFCCC process. Strengths and weaknesses of different methodological approaches are highlighted. International policy recommendations are offered aimed at improving the level of emission reductions achieved through TT.     

南海海岛自动气象站防护应用技术探索

立足海南及南海的自然条件,结合海岛自动气象站在南海高温、高湿、高盐雾、强辐射、强风等恶劣气候环境下使用情况,通过对历年来海岛自动气象站故障及失效模式的统计和分析,总结分析故障原因。根据设备维护人员多年气象设备保障工作积累总结的经验,从海岛自动气象站结构和防护要求出发,集成应用市场上优质材料、先进工艺和多种成熟、关键设备防护技术,形成一些气象设备防护的有效方法措施,以提高海岛自动气象站对海洋环境的适应性和性能,延长设备使用寿命。     

基于Web-GIS的市县级农业气象业务服务系统研究

加强市县级农业气象业务信息化与自动化建设,可有效提升直通式农业气象服务水平。本文面向基层气象为农服务需求,依托省级农业气象业务服务平台,构建基于Web-GIS市县级农业气象业务服务系统。系统首先应用ArcSDE技术,将省级农业气象业务服务平台输出的农业气象监测、灾害诊断和利弊影响分析等数据产品,转换为空间数据库;采用ArcGIS Server for Flex API开发技术,在浏览器端实现对农业气象数据产品的空间分析。通过拓展省级农业气象周年服务方案、农业气象指标库及农业气象灾害防御对策等知识库,构建农业气象知识库在线维护与服务平台。并基于Internet平台,为县级气象为农服务人员,提供基础数据统计分析及省、市、县三级农业气象业务服务产品共享等功能。系统基于B/S结构,便于推广应用,可为基层直通式农业气象服务提供重要技术支撑。     

论江西气象科技创新体系改革与建设

对江西气象科技创新体系改革与建设的内容和方向进行了论述,认为江西气象科技创新体系改革与建设,应坚持“自主创新,重点跨越,支撑发展,引领未来”的科技发展方针,明确科技型、基础性社会公益事业定位,深入实施科技兴气象战略,深化气象科技体制改革,加强原始创新、集成创新和引进消化吸收再创新;促进业务与科研的结合,形成科技创新引领事业发展的研究型业务,提升气象科技创新能力,提高气象科技水平和气象业务的科技含量,提高气象队伍素质,培养造就具有创新能力、既懂科研又懂业务的学科、技术带头人和复合型人才。     

我国气象科技期刊发展与作用

在对历史资料研究的基础上，对气象科技期刊的发展历程与作用进行了回顾及评述，并对目前气象科技期刊的现状及存在的问题做了简要分析。     

模糊时间序列模型在短期气候预测中的应用

将模糊时间序列模型引入短期气候预报,利用重庆34个地面气象观测站的逐日观测资料(1971—2007年)和重庆市旱涝灾害监测预警决策服务系统计算的干旱指数和洪涝指数等资料,运用模糊时间序列模型分别对2001—2007年重庆市城口县1月降水、1月平均气温的预报结果(年度预测)和重庆市春旱指数的预报结果(年度预测)进行了模糊时间序列分析,预测了2004—2007年的发展趋势,用2004—2007年实测值与预测结果进行了比较,并与加权集成、人工神经网络集成、数据挖掘集成等模型进行了精度比较和分析.结果表明:模糊时间序列模型各项精度评定指标优良,并且计算简单,具有一定的实用价值.     

我国无缝隙精细化网格天气预报技术进展与挑战

本文总结了2014年以来我国无缝隙精细化网格天气预报业务的技术进展,讨论了未来发展所面临的关键技术难点。无缝隙精细化网格预报技术的发展,得益于综合气象观测数据和多源资料融合分析网格实况产品的支撑,更依赖于多尺度数值预报模式和实时快速更新同化预报系统的快速发展。经过近5年的探索和努力,我国已经初步建立了针对不同预报时效的无缝隙精细化网格预报技术体系。对于0～4 h预报时效,主要基于全国雷达拼图和GRAPES-Meso模式预报,发展临近分钟级滚动外推预报技术;对于4 h到30 d预报时效,主要通过对区域或全球不同时空分辨率模式预报进行偏差订正、客观解释应用以及降尺度分析,提高预报的准确度和精细度。与此同时,研发了自动化、智能化的交互式预报制作平台,以满足客观高效制作与预报员对极端或高影响天气主观预报优势相结合的需求。发展了以格点实况分析场为参照的空间分析检验方法,初步实现了对高分辨率网格预报的质量跟踪和性能评估。未来的网格预报技术体系,需要吸纳前沿的技术研究成果,包括人工智能应用技术、高级多模式统计后处理技术和协调一致性关键技术等,并且建立统一完整的技术架构和开发标准等。     

The nexus between nationally determined contributions and technology needs assessments: a global analysis

The role of technology in combatting climate change through mitigation and adaptation to its inevitable impacts has been acknowledged and highlighted by the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). In the developing world, this has received particular attention through the technology needs assessment (TNA) process. As Parties put forward their national pledges to combat climate change, the scarcity of resources makes it important to assess (i) whether national processes designed to tackle climate change are working together and (ii) whether existing national processes should be terminated with the initiation of new ones. This study presents an assessment of the existing TNA process and its linkages to the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. The conclusions stem from an assessment of the TNAs completed to date, as well as 71 NDCs from developing countries at various stages of the TNA process. The analyses show that further developing the TNAs could play a vital role in filling gaps in the existing NDCs, specifically those relating to identifying appropriate technologies, their required enabling framework conditions and preparing implementation plans for their transfer and diffusion.

Key policy insights

• The full potential of the TNAs has still to be rolled out in many countries.

• Developing countries can maximize the potential of their TNAs by further developing them to explicitly analyse what is needed to implement existing NDCs, including by better aligning their focus, scope and up-to-dateness with the priority sectors included in the NDCs.

• Requests of developing countries for international assistance, through technology transfer, will be better guided by the completion of the TNA process.

• Policies for strengthening the NDCs will benefit from the results of completed, ongoing and future TNA processes.

     

Climate change and the agricultural sector in Ireland: examining farmer awareness and willingness to adopt new advisory mitigation tools

Agriculture is responsible for the bulk of Ireland’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the potential to mitigate some of these emissions through the adoption of more efficient farm management practices may be hampered by farmers’ awareness and attitude towards climate change and agriculture’s role in contributing to GHG emissions. This paper presents results from a survey of 746 Irish farmers in 2014, with a view to understanding farmers’ awareness of, and attitudes to, climate change and GHG emissions. Survey results show that there was a general uncertainty towards a number of questions related to agricultural GHG emissions, e.g. if tilling of land causes GHG emissions, and that farmers were reluctant to take action to reduce GHG emissions on their farm. To further explore farmers’ attitudes towards climate change, a multinomial logit model was used to examine the socio-economic factors that affect farmers’ willingness to adopt an advisory tool that would show the potential reduction in GHG emissions from the adoption of new technologies. Results show that farmers’ awareness of human-induced global climate change was positively related to the tool’s adoption.

Key policy insights

• Irish farmers are generally not sufficiently aware of the impact of their activities on climate change.

• A quarter of farmers believed that climate change will only impact on their business in the long-term; such an attitude may lead to a reluctance amongst these farmers to adopt management practices that reduce GHG emissions.

• Awareness of climate change affects positively the adoption of new tools to reduce GHG emissions on farmers’ farms.

• IT literacy affects willingness to adopt new tools to address GHG emissions.

• Reception of agri-environmental advice can have a positive influence on farmers’ willingness to adopt new GHG emission abatement tools.

• Farmers in receipt of environmental subsidies are more likely to adopt new abatement tools, either because they are more environmentally conscious or because the subsidy raised their environmentally consciousness.

• Willingness to adopt differs between different farm enterprises; operating dairy enterprise increases the willingness to adopt new advisory mitigation tools.

     

Organizational Dynamics of the U.S. Logistics Industry: An Economic Geography Perspective*

Although the logistics industry provides critical services to all sectors of the economy, few studies exist in economic geography that examine and explain the organizational dynamics of this industry. This article highlights the significance of the logistics industry in contemporary industrialization and argues that an enriched understanding of the interaction between technology and space can be achieved by examining the evolution of an industry that plays a central role in the contemporary economy. We focus on dimensions that are identified as particularly important: organizational, geographic, and risk and security.