塔里木河流域土地开发的生态响应研究

60 a来塔里木河流域耕地面积净增100×10⁴ hm²,在流域内部形成众多生态环境安全问题。通过选取水资源生态环境指数、社会生态环境指数和生态环境压力指数,运用ESDA空间分析方法和GWR模型对塔里木河流域35 a间土地开发与生态时空演变特征和空间响应关系进行研究,构建"土地开发-生态风险预警"模型,得出以下结论：1980-2015年克孜勒苏州和喀什地区生态等级正向转移比例较大,有84.86%的比例由较低等级（I）正向转移为低等级（Ⅱ）;和田地区的克里雅河流域,阿克苏北部区域以及塔里木河末端且末县等级退化严重,负向转移比例23.46%。和田、阿克苏、喀什地区每增加1.0×10⁴ hm²未利用地开垦规模,综合生态环境分值下降0.60到0.35,而克孜勒苏州则上升1.3~2.1;上游喀什与中游阿克苏两地区每1.0×10⁴ hm²生态退耕,每年将分别化解32.06×10⁴ t和15.60×10⁴ t化肥污染压力。阿克苏地区与巴音郭楞州土地开发生态风险达到环境资源承载力指数的75%以上,预警程度超过Ⅱ级,而克孜勒苏州土地开发处于生态安全范围。每1.0×10⁴ hm²未利用土地开发,全流域风险指数增长均值为0.003 4,下游巴音郭楞州在增加15×10⁴~20×10⁴ hm²耕地后,生态风险将逼近并超过环境预警界限,上游克孜勒苏州将在15 a之后进入中度警告阶段。     

中国省际边界区县域经济格局及影响因素的空间异质性

通过构建省际边界区经济发展差异指数,结合空间自相关模型对省际边界区县域经济发展差异格局进行分析,并利用全局回归（OLS）模型和地理加权回归模型（GWR）对省际边界县域经济发展差异影响因素的空间异质性进行研究。结果表明,中国省际边界区县域经济发展具有显著的空间集聚性,边界经济发展差异较大的地区集中在蒙甘边界,蒙宁边界和陕蒙边界地区。政府宏观调控因子与西部地区县域经济发展差异呈负相关趋势,教育发展水平对县域经济发展差异影响呈现出贫困与发达地区二元分异,边界的紧凑度、地形起伏度、交通优势度与产业结构因子对县域经济发展差异指数呈现出正相关趋势。本文具体分析了在不同省际边界县域内,各影响因素对县域经济发展差异指数的影响程度差异和作用方向差异,为合理调控不同地区发展要素、缩小省际边界地区经济发展差异、制定不同省际边界县域发展策略提供科学依据。     

Robustness and the Paradox of Bridging Organizations: The Exit Problem in Regional Water Governance Networks in Central America

Bridging organizations facilitate a range of governance processes, including cooperation and social learning, and are theorized to be a key component of robust governance systems. In this article, we use node removal simulations to test structural hypotheses of robustness in a regional water governance network in Central America. We investigate the response of network measures supporting core governance processes to the targeted removal of bridging organizations and other actors, which we compare to random and centrality-based simulations. The results indicate removing bridging organizations has a greater impact on the network than any other type of actor, suggesting bridging organizations are critical to the robustness of the governance system. Furthermore, network structures supporting cooperation may be less robust than structures facilitating social learning. We conclude with policy implications of the research findings as they relate to the exit problem in governance systems with a large presence of international development actors.     

Reconciling Multiple Societal Objectives in Cross-Scale Marine Governance: Solomon Islands’ Engagement in the Coral Triangle Initiative

Environmental governance aims to reconcile an expanding set of societal objectives at ever-larger scales despite the challenges that remain in integrating conservation and development at smaller scales. We interrogate Solomon Islands’ engagement in the Coral Triangle Initiative on Coral Reefs, Fisheries and Food Security to contribute new insight on the scalar politics of multi-level marine governance. We show how regional objectives are re-interpreted and prioritized as they translate into national policy and practice. Our data suggest that enhanced coordination of finances and activities, integration of objectives in shared protocols and priority geographies, and a subtle shift in power relations between the state, donors, and implementation partners have resulted from processes of re-scaling. We discuss important procedural adjustments in cross-level and cross-scale governance across jurisdictional, institutional, and sectoral scales. We also reflect on the changing role of national governments in shifts toward large-scale, multi-national initiatives.     

Consulting as a threat to local democracy? Flexible management consultants,pacified citizens,and political tactics of strategic development in German cities

These days, it is often claimed that democratic procedures are under threat. The detachment of policy decisions from political debates is partly a result of the increasing influence of non-elected organizations and experts. Following a conceptual discussion of the spatiality of democracy, this paper focuses on management consultants as constraint on collective political participation in urban development; namely on McKinsey and Roland Berger. (De-)democratization is assessed alongside processes of inclusion and exclusion of both topics and people from political decisions. Based on a comparison of strategy-making projects in six German cities, the findings reveal three different types of urban policymaking ranging between expert-led and participatory versions. Despite the differences, each of the projects relied on a notion of passive citizens, who primarily need to be “gotten on board” and who lack the power to make decisions. This paper exposes the political tactics involved in an expert-influenced curtailment of democratic procedures.     

东北地区建设用地开发强度格局演变的空间分异机制

建设用地开发强度是区域建设用地开发利用程度及其对区域人口和经济社会承载强度的综合反映。本文以东北地区179个县域空间为基本研究单元,应用冷热点、空间变差函数、GWR模型等定量方法对建设用地开发强度的时空分异格局演变及分异机制进行了探讨,得出以下结论：① 2000-2015年东北地区建设用地开发强度总体呈现出增长态势,但空间分异显著,各单元间建设用地开发强度高低的相互作用及联动效应较为明显,但建设用地开发强度的空间分布逐渐趋于非均衡,建设用地开发强度的冷热点分布格局与全局分异变化及空间异质性态势基本吻合;② 2000年东北地区开发强度格局分异由政府财政投入力度、用地投资强度和产业结构水平共同影响,到2005-2015年发展演化为政府财政投入力度、用地投资强度、经济发展水平和产业结构水平共同影响;③ 2000-2015年政府财政投入力度、用地投资强度、经济发展水平和产业结构水平与东北地区建设用地开发强度格局分布态势具有一定的关联性,但在不同区域呈现出影响程度的差异性。     

变化背景下的当代中国自然地理学——2017全国自然地理学大会述评

面对变化中的全球环境以及变化中的学科热点,以“变化背景下自然地理学新发展与新挑战”为主题的第一届全国自然地理学大会于2017年11月20-22日在南京召开。聚焦地理学与可持续发展、自然地理要素与过程集成、空间数据挖掘与系统决策等当代自然地理学研究的前沿内容,通过学科前沿理论的凝练,引导自然地理过程研究的继续深化;依托理论与方法创新;在典型流域、区域实现了自然地理过程的初步集成,切实服务于人地耦合视角下的可持续社会决策。深化自然地理学分支学科的过程研究、推进综合自然地理学的发展、提升陆地表层系统观测和模拟水平,将有助于进一步巩固自然地理学在地理科学学科体系中的基础学科地位,为满足国家重大战略需求和全球可持续发展作出重要的学科贡献。     

我国极地航运能力建设和高冰级船队发展对策分析

我国在南极和北极的活动日益增多,参与南北极事务和争取极地资源的利用已经成为国家未来向外扩展的重要举措之一。随着气候变暖,极地冰融速度加快,尤其是北极航运窗口期越来越长,两极资源利用和科考活动的需求量越来越大。而目前我国用于航行两极,尤其是北极的高冰级商业化船队十分缺乏,航运的陆基支持保障能力缺少,这将严重影响我国极地事业和商业航运运营的发展。本文通过对不同冰级船舶的保有量、建造技术能力、船舶运营和极地港口设施等各环节的分析,得出我国缺乏带较高等级冰级符号且可抗浮冰厚度1m及以上的极地航行船舶、相应极地航运能力不足的结论,并提出了我国建设极地航运能力的对策建议,为我国建设一支能在极地航行且带较高等级冰级符号船舶的船队、破冰船队以及建设极地陆基航运支持保障能力等提供决策参考。     

The identification of global strategic shipping pivots and their spatial patterns

In concert with developments in global trade and energy resource transportation, there has been a marked increase in reliance on overseas shipping. Unimpeded marine transportation has therefore become a key issue which influences national maritime interests including the security of trade and energy resources. A strategic shipping pivot thus performs a vital controlling function for global shipping networks. In this study strategic shipping pivots are defined and subdivided into sea hubs, channels and areas. We then develop a model to identify strategic shipping pivots on a global scale. The results show that, depending on differences in location, function, and type, the concept of strategic shipping pivot permits the identification of both spatial and structural differentiation with respect to strategic hubs, corridors, and seas. Now 44 strategic hubs have formed across the globe. These hubs have become the control centers of local shipping network organization. At the same time, seven strategic corridors containing most shipping routes and transportation capacity connect important sea areas, and permit a high-degree of control over the transport of strategic materials. The strategic seas, the Caribbean, the Mediterranean, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific provide vital import and export pathways, so that the formation of strategic shipping pivots is mainly influenced by factors such as physical geographical conditions, the spatial distribution of socio-economic activities, business organization, technical progress, geopolitical patterns and geopolitical disputes. Physical geographical conditions provide the potential foundations for strategic shipping pivots, while the spatial distribution of socio-economic activities and communications determine the strategic value of these points. Finally, business organization, technical progress, and geopolitical disputes all function to strengthen the strategic mechanisms and the mutagenicity of strategic shipping pivots.     

Comprehensive methods for measuring regional multidimensional development and their applications in China

National and international research on regional development has matured from the use of single elements and indicators to the application of comprehensive multi-element and multi-indicator measures. We selected 12 indicators from six dimensions for analysis in this study, including income, consumption, education, population urbanization, traffic, and indoor living facilities. We then proposed the polyhedron method to comprehensively measure levels of regional multidimensional development. We also enhanced the polygon and vector sum methods to render them more suitable for studying the status of regional multidimensional development. Finally, we measured levels of regional multidimensional development at county, city, and provincial scales across China and analyzed spatial differences using the three methods above and the weighted sum method applied widely. The results of this study reveal the presence of remarkable regional differences at the county scale across China in terms of single and multidimensional levels of regional development. Analyses show that values of the regional multidimensional development index (RMDI) are high in eastern coastal areas, intermediate in the midlands and in northern border regions, and low in the southwest and in western border regions. Districts characterized by enhanced and the highest levels of this index are distributed in eastern coastal areas, including cities in central and western regions, as well as areas characterized by the development of energy and mineral resources. The regional distribution of reduced and the lowest levels of this index is consistent with concentrations of areas that have always been impoverished. Correlation analyses of the results generated by the four methods at provincial, city, and county scales show that all are equivalent in practical application and can be used to generate satisfactory measures for regional multidimensional development. Additional correlation analyses between RMDI values calculated using the polyhedron method and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) demonstrate that the latter is not a meaningful proxy for the level of regional multidimensional development.