CMIP5模式对东太平洋ITCZ偶极子模态模拟能力的评估

本研究利用第五次国际间耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, CMIP5)中的24个模式的工业革命前控制试验(Pre-industrial Control, picontrol)模拟结果, 结合观测资料, 评估了24个CMIP5 模式对东太平洋热带辐合带偶极子(Eastern Pacific ITCZ dipole, EPID)降水模态的模拟能力, 并建立了其与模式对热带太平洋气候态模拟之间的联系。结果表明: 1) 绝大多数模式在北半球春季(2—4月)对EPID模态模拟能力较差, 主要原因在于CMIP5模式对热带辐合带(Intertropical Convergence Zone, ITCZ)的模拟偏差, 其中模拟效果较差的模式在2—4月的气候态降水分布在赤道以南, 且降水普遍偏强; 2) 对各模式的EPID模态选取的季节按照技巧评分最高进行调整后, 大部分模式能较好地模拟出EPID模态的空间分布特点, 技巧评分在0.6以上, 其中模拟效果好的模式(技巧评分大于0.7)中EPID模态出现的月份同时在中东太平洋气候态表现出“双ITCZ”特征, 且多模式集合结果的模拟误差小于绝大多数模式。     

Dynamics of ocean cables with local low-tension regions

A general set of 3-D dynamic field equations for a cable segment is derived based on the classical Euler-Kirchhoff theory of an elastica. The model includes flexural stiffness to remove the potential singularity when cable tension vanishes and can be reduced to the equations for a perfectly flexible cable. A hybrid model and a solution scheme by direct integration are then proposed to solve the oceanic cable/body system with a localized low-tension region. Numerical examples demonstrate the capability and validity of the formulation and the numerical algorithm.     

Modelling the long-term distribution of significant wave height with the Beta and Gamma models

The paper suggests modelling the long-term distribution of significant wave height with the Gamma, Beta of the first and second kind models. The three models are interrelated, flexible and cover the three different tail types of Extreme Value Theory. They can be used simultaneously as a means of assessing the uncertainty effects that result from choosing equally plausible models with different tail types. This procedure is intended for those applications that require the long-term distribution of significant wave height as input rather than the prediction of extreme values. The models are fitted to some significant wave data as an illustration. Details about maximum likelihood estimation are given in A.     

海洋沉积地质过程模拟:性质与问题及前景

探讨了海洋沉积地质数值模拟的功能问题.地球科学研究以正演方法(以数值模拟为代表)和反演方法(以地层记录分析为代表)的结合为特征.数值模拟作为一种重要的研究工具,具有获得过程和机理分析结果、形成工作假说、指导现场观测和采样的作用.与此同时,在正反演交融中模型本身也得到了提高和完善.在海洋沉积地质领域,数值模拟在沉积物输运...     

Forecasting ocean wave energy: The ECMWF wave model and time series methods

Recently, the technology has been developed to make wave farms commercially viable. Since electricity is perishable, utilities will be interested in forecasting ocean wave energy. The horizons involved in short-term management of power grids range from as little as a few hours to as long as several days. In selecting a method, the forecaster has a choice between physics-based models and statistical techniques. A further idea is to combine both types of models. This paper analyzes the forecasting properties of a well-known physics-based model, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Wave Model, and two statistical techniques, time-varying parameter regressions and neural networks. Thirteen data sets at locations in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the Gulf of Mexico are tested. The quantities to be predicted are the significant wave height, the wave period, and the wave energy flux. In the initial tests, the ECMWF model and the statistical models are compared directly. The statistical models do better at short horizons, producing more accurate forecasts in the 1-5 h range. The ECMWF model is superior at longer horizons. The convergence point, at which the two methods achieve comparable degrees of accuracy, is in the area of 6 h. By implication, the physics-based model captures the underlying signals at lower frequencies, while the statistical models capture relationships over shorter intervals. Further tests are run in which the forecasts from the ECMWF model are used as inputs in regressions and neural networks. The combined models yield more accurate forecasts than either one individually.     

Interpolation of wave heights

Remote sensing of waves often necessitates presentation of data in the form of wave height values grouped over large time intervals. This restricts their use to long-term applications only. This paper describes how such data can be made suitable for short-term usage in the field. Weekly mean significant wave heights were derived from their monthly mean observations with the help of different alternative techniques. These include model-free neural network schemes as well as model-based statistical and numerical methods. Superiority of neural networks was noted when the estimations were compared with corresponding observations. The network was trained using three different training algorithms, viz., error back propagation, conjugate gradient and cascade correlation. The technique of cascade correlation took minimum training time and showed better coefficient of correlation between observations and network output.     

Chemosynthetic trophic support for the benthic community at an intertidal cold seep site at Mocha Island off central Chile

We analyzed C and N stable isotope ratios of benthic fauna and their potential food sources at an intertidal methane seep site and a control site without emanation at Mocha Island (central Chile). The objective was to trace the origin of the main food sources used by the local heterotrophic fauna, based on the hypothesis that chemosynthetic production could be partially fueling the local food web at the seep site. Food sources sampled at both sites included macroalgae, particulate organic matter and bacteria-like filaments found growing over the red algae Gelidium lingulatum within the areas of active methane release.