中国南海东部海域气候特征及风浪流极值参数的研究——LAGFD数值模式群的应用

本文采用先进的ＬＡＧＦＤ风、浪数值模式和ＰＯＭ（ＰｒｉｎｃｅｔｏｎＯｃｅａｎＭｏｄｅｌ）三维海流模式对自１９４５～１９９５年间发生并影响南海东部海域的２９９个历史最强热带气旋过程进行数值后报,给出了南海东部部分海域（１９°～２３°Ｎ,１１３°～１１８°Ｅ）中１０００ｍ等深线内６０个点的多年一遇风、浪、流和水位极值,并简要分析了南海东部（１５°～２７°Ｎ,１０８°～１２２°Ｅ）的气候特征,为该海域区域性海洋环境研究与工程开发提供了基础参考数据。     

半参数模型稳健估计及其应用

在半参数模型估计中,均假设观测误差服从正态分布。当观测量含有粗差时,粗差对参数和非参数估计的影响是不可忽略。基于此,首先在总结线性参数模型稳健估计基本理论的基础上,论述了M估计权因子的确定方法。然后提出了半参数模型稳健估计方法,并导出半参数模型(广义)补偿最小二乘稳健估计的基本公式。最后通过两个模拟算例验证了其估计方法的有效性。     

A review of research on seismic behaviour of irregular building structures since 2002

The paper presents an overview of the progress in research regarding seismic response of plan and vertically irregular building structures. Three areas of research are surveyed. The first is the study of the effects of plan-irregularity by means of single-storey and multi-storey building models. The second area encompasses passive control as a strategy to mitigate torsional effects, by means of base isolation and other types of devices. Lastly, the third area concerns vertically irregular structures and setback buildings. Although fewer papers have been published in this last area with respect to the former ones, this state-of-the-art reports extensively on research efforts and progress into the seismic behaviour of irregular buildings in elevation to show the growing interest among specialists in the field.     

Source identification of PM2.5 particles measured in Gwangju, Korea

The UNMIX and Chemical Mass Balance (CMB) receptor models were used to investigate sources of PM_2.5 aerosols measured between March 2001 and February 2002 in Gwangju, Korea. Measurements of PM_2.5 particles were used for the analysis of carbonaceous species (organic (OC) and elemental carbon (EC)) using the thermal manganese dioxide oxidation (TMO) method, the investigation of seven ionic species using ion chromatography (IC), and the analysis of twenty-four metal species using Inductively Coupled Plasma (ICP)-Atomic Emission Spectrometry (AES)/ICP-Mass Spectrometry (MS). According to annual average PM_2.5 source apportionment results obtained from CMB calculations, diesel vehicle exhaust was the major contributor, accounting for 33.4% of the measured PM_2.5 mass (21.5 μg m^− 3), followed by secondary sulfate (14.6%), meat cooking (11.7%), secondary organic carbon (8.9%), secondary nitrate (7.6%), urban dust (5.5%), Asian dust (4.4%), biomass burning (2.8%), sea salt (2.7%), residual oil combustion (2.6%), gasoline vehicle exhaust (1.9%), automobile lead (0.5%), and components of unknown sources (3.4%). Seven PM_2.5 sources including diesel vehicles (29.6%), secondary sulfate (17.4%), biomass burning (14.7%), secondary nitrate (12.6%), gasoline vehicles (12.4%), secondary organic carbon (5.8%) and Asian dust (1.9%) were identified from the UNMIX analysis. The annual average source apportionment results from the two models are compared and the reasons for differences are qualitatively discussed for better understanding of PM_2.5 sources.Additionally, the impact of air mass pathways on the PM_2.5 mass was evaluated using air mass trajectories calculated with the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) backward trajectory model. Source contributions to PM_2.5 collected during the four air mass patterns and two event periods were calculated with the CMB model and analyzed. Results of source apportionment revealed that the contribution of diesel traffic exhaust (47.0%) in stagnant conditions (S) was much higher than the average contribution of diesel vehicle exhaust (33.4%) during the sampling period. During Asian dust (AD) periods when the air mass passed over the Korean peninsula, Asian dust and secondary organic carbon accounted for 25.2 and 23.0% of the PM_2.5 mass, respectively, whereas Asian dust contributed only 10.8% to the PM_2.5 mass during the AD event when the air mass passed over the Yellow Sea. The contribution of biomass burning to the PM_2.5 mass during the biomass burning (BB) event equaled 63.8%.     

Statistical and geostatistical features of streambed hydraulic conductivities in the Platte River, Nebraska

This paper presents streambed hydraulic conductivities of the Platte River from south-central to eastern Nebraska. The hydraulic conductivities were determined from river channels using permeameter tests. The vertical hydraulic conductivities (K _v ) from seven test sites along this river in south-central Nebraska belong to one statistical population. Its mean value is 40.2 m/d. However, the vertical hydraulic conductivities along four transects of the Ashland test site in eastern Nebraska have lower mean values, are statistically different from the K _v values in south-central Nebraska, and belong to two different populations with mean values of 20.7 and 9.1 m/d, respectively. Finer sediments carried from the Loup River and Elkhorn River watersheds to the eastern reach of the Platte River lowers the vertical hydraulic conductivity of the streambed. Correlation coefficients between water depth and K _v values along a test transect indicates a positive correlation – a larger K _v usually occurs in the part of channel with deeper water. Experimental variograms derived from the vertical hydraulic conductivities for several transects across the channels of the Platte River show periodicity of spatial correlation, which likely result from periodic variation of water depth across the channels. The sandy to gravelly streambed contains very local silt and clay layers; spatially continuous low-permeability streambed was not observed in the river channels. The horizontal hydraulic conductivities were larger than the vertical hydraulic conductivities for the same test locations.     

GIS与土壤溶质运移模型结合研究进展

地理信息系统对土壤溶质模型研究而言，使用者的要求与GIS所能提供的功能之间，还存在巨大的差距。出于对环境问题的关注，土壤中水分及溶质运移的规律及其对环境的影响，成为当前研究的热点。随着对土壤溶质运移模型研究的深入，一方面由于田间土壤特性具有很大的空间变异；另一方面，在实际应用中，往往溶质运移的宏观特征而非微观特征，具有更重要的意义。将溶质运移模型与GIS技术结合，定量研究空间尺度的溶质运移，成为溶质运移研究的必然发展趋势。由于计算机软硬件技术的发展，GIS正处于一个高速发展的时期。将GIS与溶质运移模型相结合，或者进一步，以GIS理论和技术为基础，建立基于GIS的溶质运移模型，将对溶质运移的规律及其对环境的影响，做出更深入和准确的描述。     

图形化的地学耦合建模环境与原型系统设计

耦合建模是近年来地学研究使用的重要方法.建模框架是应用较多的一类地学耦合建模环境.由于要求研究者完成耦合模型的程序编码,在一定程度上降低了它的可用性,同时也带给使用者更多的负担.本文以建模框架ESMF作为基础,对构建完全图形化的地学耦合建模环境中的问题和解决方法进行探讨.主要包括:根据确定的耦合模式及其隐含的模型调用和...     

Comparison of numerical models of two debris flows in the Cortina d’ Ampezzo area,Dolomites, Italy

The accurate prediction of runout distances, velocities and the knowledge of flow rheology can reduce the casualties and property damage produced by debris flows, providing a means to delineate hazard areas, to estimate hazard intensities for input into risk studies and to provide parameters for the design of protective measures. The application of most of models that describe the propagation and deposition of debris flow requires detailed topography, rheological and hydrological data that are not always available for the debris-flow hazard delineation and estimation. In the Cortina d’Ampezzo area, Eastern Dolomites, Italy, most of the slope instabilities are represented by debris flows; 325 debris-flow prone watersheds have been mapped in the geomorphological hazard map of this area. We compared the results of simulations of two well-documented debris flows in the Cortina d’Ampezzo area, carried on with two different single-phase, non-Newtonian models, the one-dimensional DAN-W and the two-dimensional FLO-2D, to test the possibility to simulate the dynamic behaviour of a debris flow with a model using a limited range of input parameters. FLO-2D model creates a more accurate representation of the hazard area in terms of flooded area, but the results in terms of runout distances and deposits thickness are similar to DAN-W results. Using DAN-W, the most appropriate rheology to describe the debris-flow behaviour is the Voellmy model. When detailed topographical, rheological and hydrological data are not available, DAN-W, which requires less detailed data, is a valuable tool to predict debris-flow hazard. Parameters obtained through back-analysis with both models can be applied to predict hazard in other areas characterized by similar geology, morphology and climate.     

Water and salt balance modelling to predict the effects of land-use changes in forested catchments. 1. Small catchment water balance model

A long-term water balance model has been developed to predict the hydrological effects of land-use change (especially forest clearing) in small experimental catchments in the south-west of Western Australia. This small catchment model has been used as the building block for the development of a large catchment-scale model, and has also formed the basis for a coupled water and salt balance model, developed to predict the changes in stream salinity resulting from land-use and climate change. The application of the coupled salt and water balance model to predict stream salinities in two small experimental catchments, and the application of the large catchment-scale model to predict changes in water yield in a medium-sized catchment that is being mined for bauxite, are presented in Parts 2 and 3, respectively, of this series of papers. The small catchment model has been designed as a simple, robust, conceptually based model of the basic daily water balance fluxes in forested catchments. The responses of the catchment to rainfall and pan evaporation are conceptualized in terms of three interdependent subsurface stores A, B and F. Store A depicts a near-stream perched aquifer system; B represents a deeper, permanent groundwater system; and F is an intermediate, unsaturated infiltration store. The responses of these stores are characterized by a set of constitutive relations which involves a number of conceptual parameters. These parameters are estimated by calibration by comparing observed and predicted runoff. The model has performed very well in simulations carried out on Salmon and Wights, two small experimental catchments in the Collie River basin in south-west Western Australia. The results from the application of the model to these small catchments are presented in this paper.