Development of Seismic Risk Scenarios Based on a Hybrid Method of Vulnerability Assessment

A hybrid methodology of vulnerability analysis is presented, involving elements from both empirical and theoretical methods. A model for correlating analytically calculated structural damage indices to loss (in monetary terms) is also proposed and calibrated against available statistical data. Probability damage matrices derived using this methodology are incorporated into a cost-benefit model tailored to the problem of estimating the feasibility of seismically rehabilitating the existing stock of reinforced concrete buildings in Thessaloniki, Greece. Losses calculated using the suggested procedure are found to be in good agreement with losses incurred during the 1978 Thessaloniki earthquake. The results of the present study also indicate that benefit/cost ratios for reinforced concrete buildings are quite low. Hence, it appears that a pre-earthquake strengthening programme is not economically justifiable.     

初冬季节青藏高原清水河地区甲烷排放率变化(英)

As the globally largest area covered by high altitudinal permafrost, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau may contribute substantially to atmospheric CH4 budget when global warming. Preliminary observations on CH4 emission at Qingshuihe from November 5 to 14, 1995 show that alpine grassland may be a small source for atmospheric CH4 during early winter. The emission rates of CH4 from moist grassland surface varied from-16. 1 to 23. 9 μg. m-2h-1, with an average of 1. 82 μg. m-2h-1. Emission rates of CH4 from water surface of Qingshuihe River were from -21. 0 to 37. 1 μg. m-2h-1, with an average of 1. 56 μg. m-2h-1. The emission rates of CH at 30 to 200 cm in depth ranged from-69. 0 to 36. 0 μg. m-2h-1, with the average rate at these depths varying from -2. 15 to 2. 04 μg' m-2h-1. The mean emission rates of CH4 in the active layer and permafrost indicate the lower part of active layer tends to release CH4, CH4 is absorbed at low rates in the middle section and in the vicinity of permafrost table, and net fluxes of CH4 is emitted from the soils in the upper part. During the observation periods, the methane concentrations in static chambers and emission rates of grassland and water surface displayed noticeable diurnal variations. The water/ice content may play important role in the spatial variations of methane emission rates. The emission rates of methane is weakly correlated with the ground temperatures at sampling depths and air temperatures. The observed emission rates of methane from the comparatively dry and sandy grassland soils are quite low compared with that observed in the permafrost regions in the high latitudes.     

Evaluation of vegetative criteria for near-surface groundwater detection using multispectral mapping and GIS techniques in semi-arid Botswana

The critical need to consider all options in the search for groundwater in semi-arid areas has promoted work on the possible association of near-surface groundwater and vegetation characteristics using a combination of remote-sensing data and geographic information systems (GIS) techniques. Two vegetative criteria (dense woody cover and abundance of deep-rooting species) are identified as being indicative of near-surface groundwater, and their spatial distribution is tested against the location of aquifers in southeast Botswana. Vegetative criteria classes were combined in a GIS environment with the distribution of geomorphic units and bedrock geology to determine the degree of coincidence with assumed or known aquifers. Results indicate that the distribution of dense woody vegetation as mapped from Thematic Mapper imagery has some potential in identifying especially surficial but also bedrock near-surface groundwater sources in mostly naturally vegetated semi-arid areas. Dense woody cover classes tend to select aquifers in topographically higher areas while classes comprising some deep-rooting species tend to select low-lying aquifers such as those occurring in fossil valleys. Deep-rooting species, however, are less successful as a vegetative criterion. Although various technical refinements are suggested, this work shows that vegetative criteria mapping can however be used in conjunction with conventional geological/geophysical techniques to enhance the prospects for groundwater location in relatively undisturbed semi-arid areas.     

Modern diatom, cladocera, chironomid, and chrysophyte cyst assemblages as quantitative indicators for the reconstruction of past environmental conditions in the Alps. II. Nutrients

Surface sediments from 68 small lakes in the Alps and 9 well-dated sediment core samples that cover a gradient of total phosphorus (TP) concentrations of 6 to 520 g TP l^-1 were studied for diatom, chrysophyte cyst, cladocera, and chironomid assemblages. Inference models for mean circulation log₁₀ TP were developed for diatoms, chironomids, and benthic cladocera using weighted-averaging partial least squares. After screening for outliers, the final transfer functions have coefficients of determination (r², as assessed by cross-validation, of 0.79 (diatoms), 0.68 (chironomids), and 0.49 (benthic cladocera). Planktonic cladocera and chrysophytes show very weak relationships to TP and no TP inference models were developed for these biota. Diatoms showed the best relationship with TP, whereas the other biota all have large secondary gradients, suggesting that variables other than TP have a strong influence on their composition and abundance. Comparison with other diatom – TP inference models shows that our model has high predictive power and a low root mean squared error of prediction, as assessed by cross-validation.     

玛纳斯县城高危震害小区的综合判定

在以玛纳斯县城各居委会小区为单元进行震害预测的基础上,分析了人员伤亡数量,社会财富和无家可归人数三项指标在评判高危震害小区中占有的地位。建立了高危震害小区判定指标公式。指出了玛纳斯县城内的第４,第９居委会小区为高危震害小区。把对高危震害小区的判定从单一定性化推向综合定量化做了一次尝试。     

上海旱地农田氮磷随地表径流流失研究

选择上海宝山罗店镇具有代表性的旱地蔬菜农田生态系统，从2004年3月到8月的近半年时间里，通过对径流及径流中侵蚀泥沙的氮磷流失情况的连续监测，研究了旱地农田施肥与氮磷流失污染之间的关系，探讨了农田氮磷的迁移特征及环境效应，主要结果表明：当季施用化肥的地表径流总流失量，总氮为32．77kg/hm^2，总磷为8．1kg／hm^2，随径流排出农田的氮素中有37．7％是当季施用的氮素化肥，磷素中有26．9％是当季施用的磷素化肥；从过量施肥与环境污染之间的“因”与“果”来看，减量15％施肥区相比常规施肥区的茄子的产量减少2．7％，但是其污染负荷却减少了13．4％，表明在化肥利用的有效性上或增施化肥与控制环境污染之间，应该寻找一个最佳的平衡点。     

Structure of the crust in the Black Sea and adjoining regions from surface wave data

Group velocities of Rayleigh and Love waves along the paths across the Black Sea and partly Asia Minor and the Balkan Peninsula are used to estimate lateral variations of the crustal structure in the region. As a first step, lateral variations of group velocities for periods in the range 10–20 s are determined using a 2D tomography method. Since the paths are oriented predominantly in NE–SW or N–S direction, the resolution is estimated as a function of azimuth. The local dispersion curves are actually averaged over the extended areas stretched in the predominant direction of the paths. The size of the averaging area in the direction of the best resolution is approximately 200 km. As a second step, the local averaged dispersion curves are inverted to vertical sections of S-wave velocities. Since the dispersion curves in the 10–20 s period range are mostly affected by the upper crustal structure, the velocities are estimated to a depth of approximately 25 km. Velocity sections along 43° N latitude are determined separately from Rayleigh and Love wave data. It is shown that the crust under the sea contains a low-velocity sedimentary layer of 2–3 km thickness, localized in the eastern and western deeps, as found earlier from DSS data. Beneath the sedimentary layer, two layers are present with velocity values lying between those of granite and consolidated sediments. Velocities in these layers are slightly lower in the deeps, and the boundaries of the layers are lowered. S-wave velocities obtained from Love wave data are found to be larger than those from Rayleigh wave data, the difference being most pronounced in the basaltic layer. If this difference is attributed to anisotropy, the anisotropy coefficient = (SH - SV)/Smean is reasonable (2–3%) in the upper layers, and exceeds 9% in the basaltic layer.     

氧化铬柱支撑蒙脱石的制备研究

以浙江和新疆的膨润土为原料合成了氧化铝柱支撑蒙脱石,成柱溶液以Na2CO3为碱水解铝盐溶液制得。因为制备含有大聚羟基铬阳离子的成柱溶液是获得具有大的基面间距的柱支撑粘土的关键,我们详细研究了CO32-／Cr3＋值、水解温度和水解时间对所得柱支撑蒙脱石性质的影响。聚羟基铬阳离子通过阳离子交换引入蒙脱石,所得产物用X射线衍射分析和BET氮比表面等方法研究。所得氧化铝柱支撑蒙脱石（简称Cr－mont）的基面间距为2．55nm,BET氮比表面积为190～230m2／g。