拉萨近45年旱涝变化的初步探讨

采用二值时间序列分析的方法,对拉萨旱涝变化的规律,旱涝持续性、转折性和周期性进行探讨,同时对太阳黑子与旱涝的关系进行研究。结果发现,拉萨历史上涝出现的机率明显多于旱,旱涝的持续性比交替性占优势;出现一次涝的过程后,平均将有2～3年左右的非涝过程,而一次旱的过程后,平均将有3年的非旱过程,最长达7年。涝的主要周期为2～3年,旱以3年、6～7年为周期。在太阳黑子低值年的当年及第一年和高值年的当年、第一年、第三年易出现干旱,而高值年的第二年易发生涝。     

抚顺冬季异常偏冷年气候特征及成因分析

利用抚顺气象观测站气象资料，分析了抚顺冬季异常偏冷年的气候特征，发现异常偏冷年都有最低气温低于-30℃的冷段，并且气候变暖后，降雪多、积雪深是其主要特征。同时通过分析深层平均地温、太阳黑子活动、大气环流等资料，发现抚顺冬季气温异常偏低一般都出现在太阳黑子峰谷年附近，并与前期3-11月0．8m深层平均地温呈正相关，北半球500hPa冬季欧亚地区距平场为西高东低，东亚槽稳定建立，并且大气环流以大西洋-欧亚E型环流型为主。     

Angular velocity during the cycle deduced using the sunspot group age selection methodology

We have used the “age selection methodology” (ASM) (Zappalá and Zuccarello 1991) to study the variability of the sunspot groups angular velocity during the activity cycle. The ASM allows us to separate the contribution of Young Sunspot Groups (YSG) from that of Recurrent ones (RSG) in the Ω(θ) determination and therefore to evaluate whether the increase in angular velocity during minima (reported in literature using all sunspot groups as tracers), is due to a greater statistical weight of YSG on RSG or whether it reflects a global characteristic of the Sun. The results obtained from the analysis of sunspot groups data collected during the period 1874‐1981 (Greenwich Photoheliographic Results) indicate that during minima, besides the fact that the percentage of RSG drops to ≤ 5%, both YSG and RSG show the same increase in angular velocity, i.e. 0.16 degrees/day. Comparing our results with those reported in literature and taking into account the internal angular velocity as deduced by p‐mode oscillations, it is possible to conclude that the observed higher angular velocity of the Sun during minima concerns several layers of the Sun.     

全球气候变化的成因初探

温室效应不是气候变化的唯一因素,温室气体的主体不是二氧化碳而是水汽.当水汽凝聚为云,就会遮蔽阳光,起到降温作用.太阳辐射量变化不足以解释气候变化的振幅,关键在于存在太阳能量积累和释放的多种效应,其中“海底藏冷效应”和“海洋锅炉效应”最为显著.太阳能在地球各圈层的不同分配也是地表气候变化的原因之一,其中“地磁层漏能效应”和“臭氧洞漏能效应”最为显著.气候变化周期是天文周期微力激发的结果,其能量来自太阳能量的长期积累.目前处于1500～1800年气候周期的变暖高峰,200年气候周期的变冷初期,60年气候周期的变冷阶段.本文通过历史资料反复核对,证实太阳黑子延长极小期、太阳黑子周期长度大于11年时期、潮汐极大期、低温有明显的对应关系,已经查出重复出现两个连续周期,除太阳活动变化外,强潮汐是其形成的原因.全球气候有准60年、200年、18000年等周期,这些周期与潮汐周期有很好的对应关系.特别是179～200年周期,在太阳黑子活动、潮汐变化和冷暖变化中都有明显的表现,形成对应的周期规律.分析结果显示,气候冷暖变化的原因不只限于大气层本身,而确有可用于气候预测的星体运行的变化信息.规律表明,2007年开始的太阳黑子延长极小期和潮汐极大期使我国可能进入严重低温冻害时期,并将在2020年达到高潮,必须做好预防准备.     

Long-term modulation of cosmic ray intensity in relation to sunspot numbers and tilt angle

A detailed correlative analysis between sunspot numbers (SSN) and tilt angle (TA) with cosmic ray intensity (CRI) in the neutron monitor energy range has been performed for the solar cycles 21, 22 and 23. It is found that solar activity parameters (SSN and TA) are highly (positive) correlated with each other and have inverse correlation with cosmic ray intensity (CRI). The ‘running cross correlation coefficient’ between cosmic ray intensity and tilt angle has also been calculated and it is found that the correlation is positive during the maxima of odd cycles 21 and 23. Moreover, the time lag analysis between CRI and SSN, and between CRI and TA has also been performed and is supported by hysteresis curves, which are wide for odd cycles and narrow for even cycles.     

Determination of precipitation cycle in Beijing area and comparison with solar activity cycle

We examine the annual precipitation in Beijing area response to solar activity changes during the period 1749–2001. A hierarchy of changing complex periods of precipitation is carefully detected and related cycles compared with results from SN analysis. Our findings support the suggestion that solar activity influence precipitation, at least in part in Beijing.     

太阳黑子与全球地表温度变化周期性及相关性分析

本文采用SIDC提供的1750~2016年逐月和1700~2016年逐年的太阳黑子观测资料,利用小波分析研究太阳黑子数变化的周期性。结果表明,太阳黑子数变化存在11和116 a的显著周期以及22和55 a的局部显著周期。最小二乘拟合分析表明太阳黑子周期的振幅与小波功率谱呈正比关系,11 a振幅最大。同时在1700~2016年间,太阳黑子以每年0.08个单位的速度增长。此外,全球地表温度变化存在22和64a的显著周期。1880~2016年太阳黑子数与全球地表温度的小波相干性分析结果表明,太阳黑子数变化对全球地表温度变化的作用主要体现在22 a周期上;太阳黑子数变化超前全球地表温度变化约3.6 a。     

太阳黑子活动在厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜现象预测中的应用

根据年平均太阳黑子相对数与此阶段发生的厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜现象的相关关系，提供一种预测厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜现象的生成与持续的方法。     

Solar activity dependence of ionospheric electron content and slab thickness using different solar indices

Ionospheric electron content (IEC) and slab thickness () data for the period 1977 to 1980 from Lunping (23.03°N; 121.90°E subionospheric) have been examined for their solar activity dependence. Local noontime monthly means as well as values for the 5 QQ days in a month have been examined separately with different solar indices, namely: solar EUV flux (170–190 Å),S _{10.7 cm} flux and sun spot number (SSN) on a seasonal basis. Both IEC and parameters exhibit better correlation with solar EUV andS _{10.7 cm} fluxes than with SSN for all seasons. IEC increases linearly with both EUV andS _{10.7 cm} flux whereas with SSN it shows a distinct nonlinear relationship during all seasons in both monthly mean and 5 QQ days' values. This study indicates that for correlating and predicting the variations (especially the medium term) in the ionospheric parameters, both EUV andS _{10.7 cm} fluxes have an advantage over SSN.     

Effects of sunspot cycle length and CO2 on air temperature along Qinghai-Xizang railway and air temperature''s trend prediction

There are well coherences between annual averaged air temperatures at every meteorological station along the Qinghai-Xizang railway, and its 10-year moving average correlation coefficient is 0.92. Thus, the regional averaged annual mean temperature series along the Qinghai-Xizang railway (Trw) from 1935 to 2000 are constructed. The investigation is suggested that: Trw had significant responses to the 5-year lagged sunspot cycle length (SCL) and 15-year lagged concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), and the correlation coefficients between them are -0.76 (SCL) and 0.88 (CO2), respectively. The future SCL is predicted by the model of average generated function constructed with its main cycles of 76a, 93a, 108a, 205a and 275a. The result shows that the SCL would be becoming longer in the first half of the 21st century, and then it could be becoming shorter in the second half of the 21st century. Based on the natural change of SCL and the effect of double CO2 concentration, Trw in the 21st century is forecasted. It could warm up about 0.50℃ in the first half of the 21st century compared with the last decade of last century. The mean maximum air temperature could be likely about 0.20℃ in July and from 0.40℃ to 1.10℃ in January. The annual air temperature difference would likely reduce 0.3-1.00℃. The probability of above predictions ranges from 0.64 to 0.73.