太阳活动周与全球大震

为研究太阳活动与全球大震的关系, 引入一个无量纲的"地震能量函数√G", 并分析研究了1681—2011故年间全球M≥7.0大震的能量释放的时间序列.由此发现全球大震在太阳活动周4个阶段的分布和活动度, 随震级的强度而异.提出地壳对太阳风暴加卸载响应模式, 用于解释此现象: 通过考察最近331 a, 得出全球共发生了10个M≥9.0超级巨震的时空分布特征, 特别是太阳活动峰年期间没有发生过超级巨震.该研究结果可为判断全球大震提供参考.      

Distribution of CMEs with Different Angular Widths and Comparison with the Phase of Sunspot Number in the 23rd Solar Cycle

The variation of the number of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) with different angular widths in the period of 1996-2008 is analyzed statistically in this paper, together with a comparison of the feature of time variation between the number of CMEs with some typical angular widths and the number of sunspots.     

Intensity and Magnetic Field Distribution of Sunspots

We study the relationship between the brightness (I) and magnetic field (B) distributions of sunspots using 272 samples observed at the San Fernando Observatory and the National Solar Observatory, Kitt Peak, whose characteristics varied widely. We find that the I – B relationship has a quadratic form for the spots with magnetic field less than about 2000 G. The slope of the linear part of the I – B curve varies by about a factor of three for different types of spots. In general the slope increases as the spot approaches disk center. The I – B slope does not have a clear dependency on the spot size but the lower limit appears to increase as a function of the ratio of umbra and penumbra area. The I – B slope changes as a function of age of the sunspots. We discuss various sunspot models using these results.     

太阳活动与华北强震关系的分析

统计了太阳黑子活动11年周期和22年周期与华北地区(E108°～124°,N34°～42°)1815年～2002年187年6级以上强震的关系。结果显示,它们之间存在着较好的对应关系,华北地区的强震自1815年第4高潮以来,有84.6%的强震集中在太阳黑子11年变化周期的峰年段(±1年)和谷年段(±1年)内发生;其中尤以双周峰年段、单周谷年段较为集中;而单周下降时段却从未有过强震发生。目前正处于太阳黑子活动第23周单周峰年之后的下降时段,该统计区内强震发生的概率极低。     

太阳活动周磁暴与亚洲M_S 7.0以上地震活动关系

将1996—2015年太阳黑子数、强磁暴和M_S≥7.0亚洲浅源地震,按Dst指数大小对磁暴进行分类和统计,按震级大小对地震进行分类统计,结果发现,在1996—2015年太阳活动周下降年易发生大磁暴,且M_S≥7.0地震年发生率明显高于太阳活动周上升年、极大年和极小年。     

Statistical study on great geomagnetic storms during solar cycle 23

Characteristics of great geomagnetic storms during solar cycle 23 were statistically investigated. Firstly, we focused on the uniqueness of solar cycle 23 by analyzing both the great storm number and sunspot number from 1957 to 2008. It was found that the relationship between the sunspot number and great storm number weakened as the activity of the storms strengthened. There was no obvious relationship between the annual sunspot number and great storm number with Dstxi≤-300 nT. Secondly, we studied the relationship between the peak Dst and peak Bz in detail. It was found that the condition Bz≤-10 nT is not necessary for storms with Dst≤-100 nT, but seems necessary for storms with Dst≤-150 nT. The duration for Bz≤-10 nT has no direct relationship with the giant storm. The correlation coefficient between the Dst peak and Bz peak for the 89 storms studied is 0.81. After removing the effect of solar wind dynamic pressure on the Dst peak, we obtained a better correlation coefficient of 0.86. We also found the difference between the Dst peak and the corrected Dst peak was proportional to the Dst peak.     

Morlet小波显著性检验和精度分析在地磁场和地震活动性周期分析中的应用

首先通过对加入随机噪声的合成信号进行Morlet小波变换并进行显著性检验, 分析所得信号的周期成分的显著性和非显著性, 然后研究信号周期长短、 信号观测时间段长短与精度之间的关系．在此基础上,以活动周期比较稳定的太阳黑子活动作为实例分析,结果显示本文的精度分析和显著性检验方法对于周期谱的精度和显著性研究是可行的．最后将该方法应用于全球地震活动周期谱的分析,求出全球地震活动周期谱及其显著性与精度．研究结果表明,在利用Morlet小波分析地磁场和地震活动性周期时引入显著性检验,并结合本文给出的精度, 可以从数据中提取出周期谱及其显著性和精度．      

Properties of flux tubes and the relation with solar irradiance variability

At the solar surface the magnetic field is bundled into discrete elements of concentrated flux, often referred to as magnetic flux tubes, which cover only a small fraction of the solar surface. Flux tubes span a whole spectrum of sizes, ranging from sunspots to features well below the best currently obtainable spatial resolution. Whereas sunspots have been well studied, our knowledge of the true brightness of small-scale magnetic features is hampered by the insufficient spatial resolution of the observations. A better understanding of the thermal and magnetic properties of these small-scale features, however, is crucial for an understanding of (climate-relevant) long-term solar irradiance variations.     

Active region magnetic fields

The tilt angles of sunspot groups are defined, using the Mount Wilson data set. It is shown that groups with tilt angles greater than or less than the average value (≈ 5 deg) show different latitude dependences. This effect is also seen in synoptic magnetic field data defining plages. The fraction of the total sunspot group area that is found in the leading spots is discussed as a parameter that can be useful in studying the dynamics of sunspot groups. This parameter is larger for low tilt angles, and small for extreme tilt angles in either direction. The daily variations of sunspot group tilt angles are discussed. The result that sunspot tilt angles tend to rotate toward the average value is reviewed. It is suggested that at some depth, perhaps 50 Mm, there is a flow relative to the surface that results from a rotation rate faster than the surface rate by about 60 m/sec and a meridional drift that is slower than the surface rate by about 5 m/sec. This results in a slanted relative flow at that depth that is in the direction of the average tilt angle and may be responsible for the tendency for sunspot groups (and plages) to rotate their magnetic axes in the direction of the average tilt angle.     

基于深度学习的太阳F_10.7辐射通量的短期预报研究

F_10.7太阳辐射通量作为输入参数被广泛运用于大气经验模型、电离层模型等空间环境模型,其预报精度直接影响航天器轨道预报精度.采用时间序列法统计了太阳辐射通量F10.7指数和太阳黑子数(SSN)的关系,给出了两者之间的线性关系,在此基础上提出了一种基于长短时记忆神经网络(Long and Short Term Memory,LSTM)的预报方法,方法结合了54 d太阳辐射通量指数和SSN历史数据来对F_10.7进行未来7 d短期预报,并与其他预报方法的预报结果进行了比较,结果表明:(1)所建短期预报7 d方法模型的性能优于美国空间天气预报中心(Space Weather Prediction Center, SWPC)的方法,预测值和观测值的相关系数(CC)达到0.96,同时其均方根误差约为11.62个太阳辐射通量单位(sfu),预报结果的均方根误差(RMSE)低于SWPC,下降约11%;(2)对预测的23、24周太阳活动年结果统计表明,太阳活动高年的第7 d F10.7指数预报平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)最优可达12.9%以内,低年最优可达2...