新疆北天山地区中强震前单台地震波参数异常特征研究

强地震的孕育过程也是孕震介质的形成过程,在强震前震源附近小地震的地震波运动学,动力学特征的变化过程,则反映了孕震介质的变化过程,为研究地震的孕育,发展和发生的过程,采用单台地震波振幅比,尾波持续时间比,尾波衰减系数这３项地震波参数作为地震学短期前兆指标,分析其震兆特征,从而达到监测孕震介质变化的目的,研究结果表明,单台地震波参数能够有效地发现地震的前兆,但地震波参数的前兆图像复杂多变,不具有统一的     

大桥水库地震遥测台网持续时间震级的研制

由于大桥水库地震台网各子台台基和地下结构的特殊性, 造成震级计算上的较大偏差。为此, 利用该台网各子台同一型号地震仪的垂直向速度量记录, 测量了震级为０５ ～５４ 的４６２ 次地震的振动持续时间, 制作了该台网的持续时间震级公式和便查表。在方法上, 不同于通常的按一次或二次曲线的拟合, 而采取计算机自动分段按折线拟合的方法, 以阻尼最小二乘法完成其计算。先进行分台拟合, 比较异同之后, 合并数据再拟合, 最后给出了适宜于鲁坝、瓦吉木两台和大石头、凉风岗、瓦坡支和彝海子４ 个台使用的两套平均持续时间公式和便查表, 以供大桥水库地震台网测震分析使用。     

华东地区具有短期预测意义的特殊显著性地震事件识别

依据华东地区中强地震前的地震活动特点,初步提出“特殊显著性地震事件”SPE的概念及其可能的识别方法.具有前兆指示意义的SPE可划分为三类,三类SPE分别表达了主震前中小地震与主震之间的时空位置关系.I类SPE距主震时、空距离均较近,在一定程度上与“直接前震”具有相似之处;II类SPE距主震时间较近、而空间距离可能较远,但与主震之间有一定的构造联系,具有时间上的“信号地震”的意义.Ⅲ类必须首先通过地震活动性方法对可能的SPE进行筛选,之后通过比较其与之前在同一位置发生的一系列中小地震的地震波参数之间的差异,在一定程度上进一步确认其短期预测意义.华东6次中强地震震例的研究结果表明,当可能的SPE的单台波速比小于此前该区域长时期的均值、归一化尾波持续时间大于此前该区域长时期的均值以及振幅衰减系数与此前该区域长时期均值之差大于长时期均值的30％时,可进一步认定其短期前兆意义.     

Streamflow scaling properties: investigating characteristic scales from different statistical approaches

This paper studies the links between scaling properties of river flow time series by comparing the results of three techniques applied to an extended data set of 34 French discharge gauging stations. The three approaches used are based on different mathematical tools and hypotheses: (1) shape analysis of flood hydrographs; (2) a multifractal framework through spectral and moment analyses, and (3) flood frequency analysis through the fitting of flood duration frequency curves (QdF). The general aim is to test the hypothesis of scaling invariance of river flow and the shape invariance of the hydrographs, in order to investigate the link between scaling properties and flow dynamics. In particular, the coherence between different approaches widely used in the literature to describe these characteristics is evaluated through the estimation of parameters defining the range of time‐scales on which the scaling properties are valid. The results show that most of these timescale parameters are linked to the flow dynamics and suggest that the approaches applied are interrelated. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Complex Site Effects in Thessaloniki (Greece): I. Soil Structure and Comparison of Observations with 1D Analysis

This paper presents a 2D model of the geological structure of Thessaloniki city and results of empirical and theoretical approaches for the evaluation of site response due to complex site effects. The construction of the 2D model is based on the available geophysical and geotechnical data in terms of the most important parameters needed to model site response. The well-known subsoil structure, despite the existence of some local uncertainties, gave the possibility to correlate the geometry and the dynamic properties of the 2D model with the results of site response determined from the analysis of one event in frequency and time domains and 1D numerical modelling. The study of site response shows the effect of the lateral variations on ground motion and suggests that the contribution of locally generated surface waves to the resonant peak may be important. In this case history, the limitations of the 1D approximation to simulate ground motion under complex soil conditions in both frequency and time domains are also shown. This paper lays the ground for a companion article dealing with 2D site effects.     

降雨条件下边坡体积含水率变化规律研究

持续降雨是边坡发生失稳破坏的主要诱因之一,基于饱和—非饱和渗流理论,对梅州市大埔县某边坡的渗流场进行模拟,研究在不同降雨工况下该边坡土体体积含水率的时空变化规律。研究结果表明:相同条件下,降雨强度越大(降雨历时越长),边坡表层土体体积含水率变化越大;降雨强度60 mm/d历时1 d的暴雨对边坡表层土体体积含水率的增幅作用存在着一定的滞后性,其余工况未表现出滞后现象;降雨强度为120mm/d和300 mm/d的两种工况各研究点任意时段体积含水率较为接近;当降雨强度达到60 mm/d以上时,边坡内部体积含水率空间变化主要受降雨历时影响,降雨历时越长,降雨入渗深度和体积含水率变化越大。     

The effects of simulated inundation duration and frequency on litter decomposition: A one-year experiment

There is major uncertainty in the responses of litter decomposition to the inundation regimes in field studies, mainly because of the difficulties in identification of the individual effect of duration and frequency using field studies alone. The interactive role of inundation regime and litter quality also remains unclear. The responses of mass loss to simulated inundation regime (duration and frequency) and litter quality were investigated in leaves of Carex brevicuspis and leaves and stems of Miscanthus sacchariflorus from Dongting Lake, China. Three litter types differing in litter quality were incubated under seven different inundations over 360 days (three single inundations of 90, 180, and 360 days; three repeated 180-day inundations of 2, 3, and 6 times; and no inundations) in a pond near Dongting Lake. Initial N and P contents were highest in C. brevicuspis leaves, intermediate in M. sacchariflorus leaves, and lowest in M. sacchariflorus stems, whereas the organic C, cellulose, and lignin contents were ranked in the opposite order among the three litter types. Decomposition rate was highest in M. sacchariflorus leaves (0.00222–0.00900 day⁻¹), intermediate in C. brevicuspis leaves (0.00135–0.00500 day⁻¹), and lowest in M. sacchariflorus stems (0.00080–0.00100 day⁻¹). The decomposition rate of both C. brevicuspis and M. sacchariflorus leaves increased with increasing inundation duration or decreasing frequency. However, both duration and frequency of inundation had no effect on decomposition of M. sacchariflorus stems. At the end of the incubation, N mineralization was complete in leaf litters with increasing rates with increasing inundation duration or decreasing inundation frequency, but accumulation was found in M. sacchariflorus stems. Organic C decayed quickly in both leaf litters compared with the stem litter. These data indicate that inundation regime has no effect on the decomposition of refractory stem litter while prolonged and stable inundation stimulates the degradation of labile leaf litter.     

A review of paired catchment studies for determining changes in water yield resulting from alterations in vegetation

Paired catchment studies have been widely used as a means of determining the magnitude of water yield changes resulting from changes in vegetation. This review focuses on the use of paired catchment studies for determining the changes in water yield at various time scales resulting from permanent changes in vegetation. The review considers long term annual changes, adjustment time scales, the seasonal pattern of flows and changes in both annual and seasonal flow duration curves. The paired catchment studies reported in the literature have been divided into four broad categories: afforestation experiments, deforestation experiments, regrowth experiments and forest conversion experiments. Comparisons between paired catchment results and a mean annual water balance model are presented and show good agreement between the two methodologies. The results highlight the potential underestimation of water yield changes if regrowth experiments are used to predict the likely impact of permanent alterations to a catchment's vegetation. An analysis of annual water yield changes from afforestation, deforestation and regrowth experiments demonstrates that the time taken to reach a new equilibrium under permanent land use change varies considerably. Deforestation experiments reach a new equilibrium more quickly than afforestation experiments. The review of papers reporting seasonal changes in water yield highlights the proportionally larger impact on low flows. Flow duration curve comparison provides a potential means of gaining a greater understanding of the impact of vegetation on the distribution of daily flows.     

The effective number of cycles of earthquake ground motion

The seismic response of any system that accumulates damage under cyclic loading is dependent not only on the maximum amplitude of the motion but also its duration. This is explicitly recognized in methods for estimating the liquefaction potential of soil deposits. Many researchers have proposed that the effective number of cycles of the ground motion is a more robust indicator of the destructive capacity of the shaking than the duration. However, as is the case with strong‐motion duration, there is no universally accepted approach to determining the effective number of cycles of motion, and the different methods that have been proposed can give widely varying results for a particular accelerogram. Definitions of the effective number of cycles of motion are reviewed, classified and compared. Measurements are found to differ particularly for accelerograms with broad‐banded frequency content, which contain a significant number of non‐zero crossing peaks. The key seismological parameters influencing the number of cycles of motion and associated equations for predicting this quantity for future earthquakes are identified. Correlations between cycle counts and different duration measures are explored and found to be rather poor in the absence of additional parameters. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Optimal operation model of a single reservoir with drought duration explicitly concerned

In this paper, a new model for a single reservoir operation optimization is proposed. The proposed model can design the optimal operation policy of a reservoir with explicit consideration of drought duration. The authors model this problem by formulating a single-stage loss function as a function of both the reservoir release and drought duration. Thereby the expected loss per period which is calculated based on the above extended single-stage loss function is minimized in infinite time horizon on the basis of Markov decision process (MDP) theory. The reliability indices are estimated as expected loss per period for specified extended loss functions. Finally, the features of the proposed model are illustrated through numerical analysis.